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Updating the Kansas City Chiefs final record probabilities

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We all know I’m obsessed with Andy Reid’s record against playoff and non-playoff teams (if you didn’t know, now you do.) My obsession is caused by the fact that Reid’s records against playoff/non-playoff teams have helped me predict the Chiefs regular season record from 2014 through 2016.

I figured I could use these numbers to create probabilities for what the Chiefs record will be at the end of the season. The only team left the Chiefs face who can make the playoffs are the Bills, and maybe the Raiders. Neither of these teams are a lock, so we have two sets of probabilities. One set where the Bills/some other team are a playoff team, and another set where the Chiefs do not face a playoff team in their final seven games.

If the Bills (or someone else) are NOT a Playoff Team

Since coming to Kansas City, Andy Reid has an .850 winning percentage against teams who don’t make the playoffs (2013-16). Using that win percentage and binomial distribution statistics, here are the probabilities for each of the Chiefs records this season:

  • 13-3 = 32%
  • 12-4 = 40%
  • 11-5 = 21%
  • 10-6 = 6%
  • 9-7 = 1%

If there are no playoff teams left on the Chiefs schedule, they have a 32 percent chance to go 7-0 to finish the season. The most likely record in this scenario is for the Chiefs to finish the year 12-4, losing one of their final seven games.

If the Bills (or someone else) ARE a Playoff Team

Huge shout out to my good friend Koby for building these numbers for me. I know he’s smarter than me so I thought he might know how to do some of the calculations I couldn’t figure out, and boy did he deliver. So thank you Koby and if you’re reading this we should probably make a trip to Arrowhead soon.

Since the Chiefs are 2-2 this year against teams who are very likely to make the playoffs, I decided to set the Chiefs win probably against the lone playoff team they will face at .500. See below the probabilities for each of the Chiefs potential records:

  • 13-3 = 19%
  • 12-4 = 39%
  • 11-5 = 29%
  • 10-6 = 11%
  • 9-7 = 2%

Adding the playoff team into the mix the Chiefs most likely record is still 12-4. Before the season I predicted the Chiefs would finish 11-5, so we’ll see what happens. I’d be very happy with 12-4, but I’m still feeling 11-5.

Where is everyone else at?