Things should get much easier for the Chiefs after their bye week. How much easier you say? Let’s take a deeper look.
Winning Teams
The Chiefs faced four teams with winning records during their first nine games. Three of those teams (Patriots, Steelers, Eagles) are considered the top of the class in the NFL and the Chiefs beat two of them.
In the Chiefs final seven games they will play a team with a winning record (as of now) only one time. That team is the Buffalo Bills who have looked good at times and not so good at other times.
Then you have this:
Before the bye the Chiefs average opponent had a win % of 0.568. After the bye the Chiefs average opponent has a win % of 0.414.
— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) November 7, 2017
Andy Reid has Dominated Non-Playoff Teams
During Reid’s first four seasons in Kansas City he has a winning percentage of .850 against teams that don’t make the playoffs. Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule:
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Of these teams I would say only the Bills have a legitimate shot of making the playoffs, but they will be a fringe playoff team at best. The Bills have two games against the Patriots, and games against the Saints and Chiefs. It won’t be easy for them to make the playoffs.
The Raiders are 4-5 and still have to play the Patriots, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Eagles. There is little reason to believe they will make the playoffs.
It is looking like the Chiefs will play five playoff teams during the regular season this year, with 11 of the games being against non-playoff teams. Since the Chiefs have lost to the Raiders already, their win percentage against non-playoff teams would be .909 if they won out, and .818 if they lost to one of the teams which aren’t the Bills.
What I’m saying is the Chiefs should finish the final seven games of the season with a 7-0 or 6-1 record based on Reid’s history with the Chiefs.
A Chance to Improve
The Chiefs had a brutal start to their season in regards to their schedule. According to Pro Football Reference the Chiefs had the third most difficult schedule thus far in the NFL. To be at this point with a 6-3 record is a great accomplishment.
Playing a difficult schedule just makes things harder for a teams offense and defense. Good teams are typically better at many things, while bad teams are typically worse at many things.
In terms of yards per play, the Chiefs defense was facing on average the 12th best offense in the NFL. After the bye the Chiefs will face the 21st best offense in the NFL on average. One way to fix the defense is to stop constantly playing good offenses.
The Chiefs will have an opportunity for their defense to improve and I suspect it will given the slew of poor offensive teams the Chiefs will face down the stretch in 2017.
I very strongly believe the Chiefs will tear through these final seven weeks of 2017 and head into the playoffs with a head of steam. They’ll need a little help to get a first round bye, but it’s definitely not outside the realm of very realistic possibilities.