Chiefs fourth quarter report: How they’re faring against Super Bowl stats

It seems like a long, long time ago but before the season started I wrote a handful of articles detailing what stats would give the Chiefs their best chances for winning a Super Bowl.

I wanted to see how the Chiefs are currently playing and how they compare to those stats we talked about. I projected the Chiefs stats from the final four games of the season (Chargers, Broncos, Titans, Raiders) over 16 games. The goal being I want to see how the Chiefs are playing right now compared to what we hoped for before the season.

The Passing Offense

The following stat line is the projection I created in one of the offseason articles:

3,800 Yards, 27 TDs, 550 Attempts, 11 INTs

If you take Alex Smith’s passing numbers from the final four games of the season, and project them over 16 games you get the following:

3,740 Yards, 16 TDs, 472 Attempts, 16 INTs

Did anyone else realize that Alex Smith threw an interception in each of his last four games of the season? Also interesting to note, Smith threw for almost eight yards per attempt in the final four games of the season.

If you were to include Smith’s rushing touchdowns - five rushing touchdowns this year is more than the last three years combined - then he would be on pace for 28 total touchdowns for an entire season based on the last four games of the season.

Compared to the initial numbers, Smith is giving the Chiefs close to what they need for their best shot of winning a Super Bowl. The INTs are a little high along with that four-game interception streak.

The Rushing Offense

I also an article to see what the Chiefs needed from their rushing offense. A team’s rushing numbers had little impact on whether or not a team won the Super Bowl. The Chiefs run game just needs to be not terrible.

When you project the final quarter of the season out you get:

2,252 Yards, 12 TDs (24 Including Alex Smith’s rushing TDs)

The Chiefs run game down the stretch has indeed been not terrible. The Chiefs rushing offense has put up some decent numbers in the final four games of the season.

The Defense

The final article I wrote before the season was for the Chiefs defense. I came up with the following numbers for the Chiefs to hit:

Total Defense: 19 PPG, 318 YPG

Passing Defense: 214 YPG, 19 TDs, 20 INTs, 45 Sacks

Rushing Defense: 104 YPG, 9 TDs

Over the final four games of the season, the Chiefs were on pace for the following numbers:

Total Defense: 17 PPG, 319 YPG

Passing Defense: 201 YPG, 8 TDs

Rushing Defense: 119 YPG, 16 TDs

The Chiefs total defense and passing defense are looking great.

However, there is a weakness. The Chiefs run defense has allowed too many yards and too many rushing touchdowns. If the Chiefs end up playing the Steelers, Le’Veon Bell will be a major problem. Why did Derrick Johnson have to go and get injured?

Final Thoughts

The Chiefs are finishing the season on the right pace.

The weaknesses over the final four weeks of the season have been Alex Smith’s interceptions, and the rushing defense.

If the Chiefs can address these two problem areas, and continue playing at the same caliber they have down the stretch, then I don’t see any reason why they can’t win the Super Bowl.

In fact, after writing this, I kind of like their chances.