To figure out what the ideal number of touches each Chiefs player should have, we first need to figure out how many touches are available in a winning effort.
The Chiefs have passed an average of 35 times each game, and run an average of 25 times each game. Alex Smith has completed 67 percent of his passes this year, so that works out to 23 completions.
Here is what I would say is the ideal number of touches (for RBs) and targets / completions (for receivers / tight ends) should look like for the Chiefs:
Spencer Ware: 16 touches
Tyreek Hill: 6 touches
Charcandrick West: 3 touches
Travis Kelce: 10 targets for at least 7 catches
Tyreek Hill: 8 targets for at least 5 catches
Spencer Ware/Charcandrick West: 6 targets for at least 5 catches (reflecting that passes to RBs are usually higher percentage and should complete at a higher rate than the rest of his passes)
Jeremy Maclin: 6 targets for at least 3 catches (reflecting that Maclin is a great target for the riskier throws, bring Smith’s average back down to 67 percent completion)
Chris Conley: 3 targets for at least 2 catches
Demetrius Harris/Albert Wilson/everyone else: 2 targets for at least 1 catch (reflecting that I don’t trust anyone else on the team to catch the ball well, or do very much with it when they make the catch)
Obviously, the circumstances will change from game to game, but this seems like a pretty good default template to me. What would you change to improve our chances of winning?