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Chiefs 2016 record prediction: A statistical analysis

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Let's review: I accurately predicted the Chiefs record in 2014, AND in 2015. There is a saying for such predictions: a broken clock is right twice a day.

I'm going to use the same method where I used Andy Reid's record against playoff teams and non playoff teams to predict the Chiefs regular season record. This time around I will only use Andy Reid's record against playoff teams since he has been in Kansas City (2013-15).

Andy Reid vs Playoff and Non-Playoff Teams

Andy Reid is 6-13 in regular season games against playoff teams since 2013. For comparison, Pete Carroll has gone 11-7 and Bill Belichick has gone 9-4.

However, the Chiefs in the same time period are 25-4 against teams who did not make the playoffs.This is an almost unbelievable number and any narrative about Reid blowing games against bad teams should be thrown out the window immediately (about that Titans game ...).

Andy Reid and the Chiefs have progressively gotten better against top competition. You can hover over the graph and you'll see the Chiefs win percentage against playoff teams in 2015 was .429. (Embedded graphs are cool, I know... that's why I put them in this article.)

So How Are We Going to Use this Information?

Glad you asked. If we're being optimistic based on the previous three years, let's estimate the Chiefs will have a .500 win percentage against playoff teams this season.

So, a couple things. The Chiefs will go .500 against playoff teams in 2016, and the Chiefs have gone 25-4 (.862 win percentage) against non playoff teams since Andy Reid has come to Kansas City.

Now we need to take another leap of faith and guess which teams will make the playoffs in 2016. We'll use the following numbers to assign the teams:

  • 1 = Will Most Likely Make the Playoffs (GREEN)
  • 2 = Could Possibly Make the Playoffs (YELLOW)
  • 3 = Will Most Likely Not Make the Playoffs (RED)
Game Team Playoffs?
1 Chargers No
2 Texans Maybe
3 Jets Maybe
4 Steelers Yes
5 Raiders Maybe
6 Saints No
7 Colts Maybe
8 Jaguars Maybe
9 Panthers Yes
10 Buccaneers No
11 Broncos Maybe
12 Falcons Maybe
13 Raiders Maybe
14 Titans No
15 Broncos Maybe
16 Chargers No

So we have five no, nine maybe and two yes. We'll say from the nine maybes that three of them will be against playoff teams and six of them will be against non-playoff teams. In this scenario the Chiefs will play five playoff teams and 11 non-playoff teams in 2016.

The Prediction

Using the numbers above we can make a quick formula for the number of Chiefs wins...

If we round up, the Chiefs will go 12-4 in 2016.