The Kansas City Chiefs have an 88 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to 538. These playoff odds are the third highest in the NFL behind the 7-1 Patriots and 7-1 Cowboys.
The Chiefs, 6-2, aren’t even in first place in their own division with Oakland’s (7-2) Sunday night win over the Broncos (5-3). According to 538, however, the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the league. Their ELO rating has them as the second best team in the league.
Here’s how they stack up in a few other categories 538 uses (check it out here):
Wins: 11.2
Looking at how they’ve played and who they play, the Chiefs are an 11-12 win team. That would mean between 2-3 losses the rest of the season. at Carolina, at Denver, at Atlanta, Oakland, Denver again, San Diego ... yeah, a 2-3 more losses sounds about right. The Chiefs do play in the best division in football.
Make playoffs: 88 percent
At this point, which is still early, it would be an upset if the AFC West didn’t have three teams in the playoffs. For real. The Raiders are 7-2, the Chiefs are 6-2 and the Broncos are 5-3. Those three would get into the playoffs today. The next closest contenders are the 4-4 Bills and Dolphins. The AFC sucks this year outside of the Patriots and the West.
Win division: 57 percent
This is interesting because the Broncos are 23 percent and the Raiders, who lead the division nine games into the season, are 20 percent. The Chiefs are 2-0 in the division right now with home games against the Broncos and Raiders to come. The Chiefs have won 10 straight at Arrowhead.
First round bye: 46 percent
This is the big one. The Chiefs really need this one if we’re being honest. A first round bye because Andy Reid is great after a bye. A home playoff game because the Chiefs are very good at home. Get that home playoff game, win it and then at that point likely travel to New England. I’m not sure anyone else is knocking New England off.