Jaguars-Chiefs preview: What the stats say

I’ve been dealing with a bit of an illness and not enough rest lately but the Chiefs have won every week I have done a stats preview, so I must carry onward for the good of the franchise. Or something like that.

Let’s see what kind of team the Jaguars have been in 2016 ...

Offensive Comparison

The table below shows the offensive averages with NFL ranking in parentheses.

Fun fact: The Chiefs jumped from 21st in the NFL in yards per passing attempt to the 14th spot after playing the Colts. I’ll leave you to your own devices to speculate why that is.

The wild card here is Nick Foles, who will be starting for the Chiefs. The offense could change with Foles running the show. As of now it may be safe to consider the Chiefs offense a middle of the pack unit in the NFL.

Another thing to note is just how bad the Jaguars have been at running the football. They have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. Without any help for Blak Bortles in the running game it is no surprise he is having a rough season.

Quarterback Comparison

Blake Bortles: 272 yards, 60.0 percent, 1.7 TDs, 1.3 INTs, 80.1 rating

Nick Foles: WILD CARD

Since I typically look at season averages I felt as though one game by Nick Foles was not enough for a strong comparison. No one really knows what to expect from Foles in his first start with the Chiefs.

Bortles, on the other hand, has thrown for a lot of yards and a fair amount of touchdowns. His major weakness is that he is prone to throwing interceptions. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs secondary comes away with one or two interceptions on Sunday.

Defensive Comparison

The Chiefs have slowly climbed their way into a top 10 defense in the NFL. After the Steelers game the Chiefs defense was ranked 17th in the NFL in points per game. They climbed nine spots against some of the best offenses in the NFL. Color me highly impressed.

The Jaguars are surprisingly statistically good at limiting opposing quarterbacks but this may be more of a function of teams getting up on Jacksonville and running the ball to milk a lead. This could also describe why the Jaguars allow a lot of rushing yards.

Who Have the Jaguars Played?

The Jaguars have some interesting stats so it may be a good idea to see who they have played.

The Jaguars have played three top 10 offenses in the Chargers, Colts, and Raiders. The Chiefs have played half of their games against top 10 offenses. It would be fair to think the Chiefs defense is actually better than the stats would suggest while the Jaguars are who we think they are.

Moving onto the defensive side of the ball, the Jaguars have played only one top 10 defense in the Ravens. The Chiefs haven’t played a single top 10 defense in 2016.

Weakness vs Weakness

Jaguars rushing offense vs Chiefs rushing defense: The Chiefs have the 25th ranked rushing defense and the Jaguars have the 25th ranked rushing offense. Who wins on Sunday?

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Chiefs secondary vs Blake Bortles: The Chiefs are excellent at picking off passes and Blake Bortles has shown he can throw a few to the wrong team. I would be surprised if the Chiefs don’t come away with one in this game.

Chiefs defense vs Jaguars offense: The Chiefs have done an excellent job of keeping opponents out of the end zone, especially over the past few weeks against top offenses. The Jaguars on the other hand are 23rd in points allowed.

Strength vs Strength

Nick Foles vs Jaguars Secondary: Foles can stretch the field like he did last week against the Colts but the Jaguars defense is ranked fifth in yards per attempt. This is likely to be the biggest matchup in the game. With Spencer Ware probably out a lot of the weight falls on Foles’ shoulders.