I took a look at 538’s predictions page which includes each team’s playoff chances. Here’s what they’re saying about the Chiefs four games into the season:
56 percent chance of the Chiefs making the playoffs
This sounds about right, slightly better odds than 50/50. The Chiefs are 2-2 but we also have three years of data that says the Chiefs will probably finish better than .500. Doesn’t mean it will happen but it’s a fair prediction that the Chiefs will finish the season better than they started it.
13 percent chance of winning the AFC West
The Broncos are 4-0 and the Raiders are 3-1. So the Chiefs sit at third in the division right now. 538 has the Chiefs as favorites in all remaining games but four: at Carolina, Denver (home and away) and at Atlanta. That would make the Chiefs a 10-6 team. With the Broncos starting 4-0, that may not win the division.
9 percent chance of a first round bye
We had hopes of this before the season. Maybe we still do. It’s hard to talk about a first round bye coming off a 43-14 beatdown in primetime. The Chiefs would probably need 12 wins to be talking about a bye so they would need another hell of a winning streak going. Even through four games we know there is an advantage for the Chiefs to play at Arrowhead instead of on the road.
4 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl
Let’s just make the playoffs and then talk about this.