It has come to my attention that I am a superstitious man thanks to my fiancee.
I wrote the first statistical preview before the Raiders game and the Chiefs won. I wrote the second one before the Saints game and the Chiefs won. I am left with only one option: keep writing them because it’s causing the Chiefs to win. You can all thank me later.
Below is a table showing the Chiefs and Colts offensive per game stats. The ranks are the numbers in the parentheses.
The Colts offense is a little more balanced than the Saints offense is but still vey pass heavy. With all those dropbacks, the Colts also allow more sacks per game than any team in the NFL.
Alex Smith has continued to drop his interceptions per game number as the season progresses and he is once again showing his elite ability to take care of the ball.
Keep in mind these are net passing numbers which means sacks are deducted from the passing yards totals.
Andrew Luck: 296.3 yards, 64.9 percent, 2 TDs, 0.6 INTs, 86.5 rating
Alex Smith: 251.8 yards, 67.8 percent, 1.2 TDs, 0.3 INTs, 95.0 rating
Alex Smith has been more efficient than Andrew Luck this year. Smith has a higher completion percentage, higher rating and fewer interceptions per game. Andrew Luck on the other hand has thornw for more yards and touchdowns.
Both of these quarterbacks have had troubles with taking sacks in games. Andrew Luck loses roughly 23 yards per game due to sacks, and Alex Smith loses roughly 13 yards per game due to sacks, although that’s improved the past two weeks.
Andrew Luck has obvious statistical advantages over Smith but that’s not to knock Smith’s efficiency this season.
Below are the defensive numbers for both teams.
The Chiefs defense outperforms the Colts defense in every category except for sacks, although I am kind of shocked to see the Chiefs defense is 23rd in yards allowed per game.
This Week 8 matchup will showcase the Chiefs as the NFL’s best at intercepting passes and the Colts as the NFL’s worst.
Who Have the Colts Played?
Let’s take a look at who the Colts have played thus far.
The Colts have yet to beat a winning team this season. The Colts opponents have a combined record of 19-22 (excluding games vs the Colts.) The Chiefs opponents have a combined record of 18-17 (excluding games vs the Chiefs.) The Chiefs have played a more difficult schedule than the Colts have.
The Colts have faced only one top 10 offense in the NFL (based on points per game.) The Chiefs on the other hand have faced three top 10 offenses. This leads me to believe the Colts defense may actually be worse than their numbers suggest and the Chiefs defense may actually be better than their numbers suggest.
The Colts have played one top 10 defense and the Chiefs have played no top 10 defenses in 2016. This might suggest both the Chiefs and Colts offenses may be slightly worse than their numbers suggest.
Of course if you’re like me you think the Chiefs offense is still gelling and we are yet to see the best from Alex Smith and Co.
Weaknesses vs Weaknesses
Chiefs Pass Rush vs Colts Offensive Line - The Chiefs have the 29th ranked pass rush in the NFL while the Colts have given up more sacks than any team. Something has to give either way here, and I’m hoping it’s the Colts offensive line that does the giving.
Chiefs Passing Game vs Colts Secondary - The Chiefs are 21st in passing yards while the Colts are 25th in passing yards allowed. It will be interesting to see how this plays out on Sunday.
Colts Run Game vs Chiefs Run Defense - The Colts have not been great in terms of running the ball. The Chiefs run defense has shown they can shore it up but has left some to be desired there.
Strengths vs Weaknesses
Alex Smith’s Ball Control vs Colts Secondary - Alex Smith is elite at taking care of the ball. The Colts on the other hand have the least amount of interceptions in the NFL (per game.) Like most games, I would be pretty surprised if Alex Smith throws an interception in this game.
Colts Offensive Yards vs Chiefs Defensive Yards Allowed - The Colts have moved the ball well during the season and the Chiefs defense has allowed teams to move the ball well. Timely turnovers have been the Chiefs saving grace thus far in 2016. The Chiefs are 23rd ranked defense in yards allowed while the Colts offense is ninth overall in yards. I would be surprised if the Chiefs were able to hold the Colts to less than 350 total yards of offense on the day.
Strengths vs Strengths
Chiefs Scoring Defense vs Colts Scoring Offense - It’s kind of strange really, the Colts offense has scored more points than they probably should have considering their yards gained totals and the Chiefs defense has held teams to fewer points than they probably should have considering their yards allowed totals.
If the Chiefs can win the battle in the red zone and hold the Colts to field goals it will really help the Chiefs chances for winning.
Of course I have already sealed the win for the Chiefs by writing this article, so maybe everything else that happens is just sprinkles on the sundae. You’re welcome.