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Why the Chiefs are now road favorites over the Raiders

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We noted yesterday that the Kansas City Chiefs went from being underdogs to now favorites against the Raiders in Oakland, which is a little surprising given that the Raiders are the AFC West leader at 4-1 and the Chiefs have resembled something closer to what Sheldon the dog just dropped over in the corner of the living room and I am now cleaning up.

I pointed out the line movement to Danny Parkins and Carrington Harrison on 610 Sports yesterday and so after I left they called odds expert Todd Fuhrman to get a read on what’s going on with the line. I tend to pay close attention to the gamblers because they are the ones with more on the line than anyone else.

“So much was made about Oakland being the it team this year, finally turning the corner,” Fuhrman says at about the 32-minute mark here. “We were going to see them as viable contenders in the AFC. If you look at just their record, it definitely supports that. A deeper dive into some of Oakland on-field performance advanced metrics wise, not quite there when you’re dead last in the league in yards per play.

“Kansas City on the other hand, you look at Andy Reid, he has been outstanding in his career against the spread on the road, even better off the bye week in getting straight up wins. As a result that’s what you’re seeing is professional bettors gravitating towards the extra time to prepare ... and I think the Chiefs only climb higher from here.”

The line could go HIGHER? I’m seeing anywhere from 1 to 1.5 points in favor of the Chiefs at the SB Nation odds page.

Fuhrman pointed out that the 2-4 Chargers have been just as competitive as the 4-1 Raiders. San Diego is plus-22 in score differential while Oakland is only plus-five. The Raiders have just won late in the game while the Chargers blow it. Last week’s Chargers-Raiders game is a perfect example of that. If San Diego doesn’t botch a snap, they might win.

Bonus item: Danny and Carrington asked what the line would be if this game were at Arrowhead. This is neat:

“You’re talking about Arrowhead being one of the most valuable advantages. Typically oddsmakers give teams a 3-point baseline ... Arrowhead for a division rivalry situation is about 3.5 to 4 points. In a primetime scenario, say a Thursday night, Monday night or Sunday night, upwards of five points when the Arrowhead faithful get behind the team.”