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Kansas City Chiefs lack of balance stands out in first quarter report

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NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports

At times I am required to write quarterly reports for the company I work for. I have decided to apply a similar concept to the Chiefs season. Let’s take a look at several items regarding the Chiefs first quarter of the season.

Passing Game

Before the season started I wrote an article about what type of play the Chiefs would need from the QB position to have the best chance of winning a Super Bowl. In that article we came across the following stat line needed from Alex Smith to give the Chiefs their best chances:

3,800 Yards, 27 TDs, 550 Attempts, 11 INTs

Here are Alex Smith’s current stats when projected for a full season:

4,292 Yards, 20 TDs, 672 Attempts, 8 INTs

Smith is over the mark for yards, under for TDs, over for attempts, and under for INTs.

One MAJOR problem for Alex Smith this season has been his yards per attempt. He is currently averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. According to the projection above he needs to have an extremely manageable 6.9 yards per attempt.

6.4 yards per attempt is horrendous even for a short passing game wizard like Alex Smith. In 2015 Smith averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, and in 2014 he averaged 7.0 yards per attempt.

Offensive Balance

The Chiefs were down early in a couple of games during 2016’s first quarter. However, there are some problems with the Chiefs offensive play calling balance.

In the past, a good run/pass ratio is roughly 40/60, but what about the Chiefs and the rest of the NFL?

  • Chiefs: 33/67
  • Rest of NFL: 42/58

The Chiefs have lacked balance on offense during the first quarter. They need to run the ball significantly more. Of course this may have something to do with the fact the Chiefs were getting blown out in the majority of two of their games.

Getting Jamaal Charles back should help the Chiefs offensive balance substantially. That is of course if Andy Reid decides to use him.

Defense

Once again we’ll refer to the stats from the defense based Super Bowl article I wrote before the season started. The numbers the Chiefs defense should strive for were the following:

Total Defense: 19 PPG, 318 YPG

Passing Defense: 214 YPG, 19 TDs, 20 INTs, 45 Sacks

Rushing Defense: 104 YPG, 9 TDs

Currently the Chiefs are on pace for the following:

Total Defense: 23 PPG, 370 YPG

Passing Defense: 241 YPG, 28 TDs, 32 INTs, 20 Sacks

Rushing Defense: 130 YPG, 12 TDs

At first glimpse a few things really jump out. The Chiefs are on pace for only 20 sacks in 2016. That is bad.

Another thing that jumps out is the Chiefs are on pace for 32 interceptions. This is an absurd number that no Chiefs fan should legitimately believe will happen.

The Chiefs defense is giving up way too many yards and way too many touchdowns. If the Chiefs want to be a legitimate contender with their current offensive personnel then the defense is going to have to step up their game.

AFC West Schedule Rundowns

These numbers include Week 5.

Raiders (4-1)

  • Games vs winning teams: 2
  • Wins vs winning teams: 1
  • Opponent win percentage: .458

Broncos (4-1)

  • Games vs winning teams: 1
  • Wins vs winning teams: 0
  • Opponent win percentage: .440

Chiefs (2-2)

  • Games vs winning teams: 2
  • Wins vs winning teams: 0
  • Opponent win percentage: .450

Chargers (1-4)

  • Games vs winning teams: 1
  • Wins vs winning teams: 0
  • Opponent win percentage: .455

It appears the Chiefs and Raiders have had the most difficult schedule to start the 2016 season in the AFC West. The Broncos have only played one winning team and they lost.

Looking at the second quarter

The Chiefs have the following games in the second quarter:

@Raiders (4-1), Saints (1-3), @Colts (2-3), Jaguars (1-3)

All of these games are winnable. The Chiefs are coming off the bye against the Raiders, and the remaining three teams have a losing record. The goal for the Chiefs should obviously be to go 4-0 in this stretch of the season.