The past two seasons Kansas City Chiefs QB Alex Smith has had a 16-game pace of 3,510 yards, 22 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. Those numbers match up closely to what Bovada projects out of Smith in their over / under on his passing yards (3,400), touchdown passes (20.5) and interceptions (9.5).
As Chiefs GM John Dorsey pointed out on the Day Shift on 610 this week, this is Alex's third year in the same system which is the first time that's happened for him. "There's a degree of comfort there," Dorsey said. "He understands exactly what Andy expects ... I expect a very good year here."
There is a terrific article on RotoViz about the Chiefs offense and how they're perceived. Because of the no WR touchdown thing last year, there is a negative perception of the Chiefs offense which has caused them to be undervalued in fantasy circles.
I believe we have something slightly similar here. If Alex plays 16 games, I expect him to throw for more than 3,400 yards but not much more. There aren't many outliers with Alex; he doesn't stray too far from what you expect out of him. The problem is that it's so hard to predict he'll play 16 games. It's only happened twice in his career, whether that's because his team won so much (2013) or because you need a spleen to play (2014).
The touchdown passes are a crap shoot so I'm not leaning one way or another on that. On the interceptions, I would take the under despite the Chiefs encouraging more deep balls. Alex hasn't thrown that many interceptions since 2010. Even with 500 passes in 2013, his first year in the offense, he had just seven interceptions.
Alex Smith passing yards: 3,400
Alex Smith TD passes: 20.5
Alex Smith interceptions: 9.5