How likely is it that Justin Houston follows up his near-record breaking season of 22 sacks with a record-breaking season of more than 22 sacks?
Not very likely, according to Bovada.
The over / under on Houston's sacks next season is 13. That's quite a drop from his 22 last season but still a very strong season. That's probably a pretty good bet, actually. It's tempting to say, "He's in the prime of his career, he'll hit 25 next year!" But then look at this from our floppy haired columnist at the KC Star:
Derrick Thomas, the year after he had 20 sacks, went down to 13 1/2. Michael Strahan went from 22 1/2 — the NFL record, even if Brett Favre took a dive for the last one — in 2001 to 11 the next year. Jared Allen went from 22 to 12, Mark Gastineau from 22 to 13 1/2, Chris Doleman from 21 to 11, J.J. Watt from 20 1/2 to 10 1/2, Lawrence Taylor from 20 1/2 to 12, and DeMarcus Ware from 20 to 11.
As Sam Mellinger notes, Reggie White had 18 sacks after a 21-sack season. Houston was also healthy last year; there's a chance he might not be this year.
Over or under on Houston's 13 sacks?