I was talking with Benny Heisler on 610 Sports over the weekend and he asked me what we could predict for Jeremy Maclin and his stats this season. I started to say 1,000 yards just because that seems like a big season for a receiver with a big contract. But I remembered that Andy Reid hasn't had many 1,000 yard receivers in his career and that during Maclin's four years under Reid he topped out at 964 yards.
So what to project for Maclin? Let's start with what he did under Reid:
2009: 56 catches, 773 yards
2010: 70 catches, 964 yards
2011: 63 catches, 859 yards
2012: 69 catches, 857 yards
Average under Reid: 65 catches, 863 yards
Plenty of caveats here. Two completely different teams. Maclin was playing opposite DeSean Jackson in Philly. Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick were the quarterbacks, not Alex Smith. Lots of things are different.
Maclin will be the clear No. 1 receiver on the field in Kansas City while he never really was under Reid in Philly. He's a more polished player now than he was in his first couple of years in the league.
Dwayne Bowe had seasons of 673 and 754 yards in two seasons under Reid.
After looking at these numbers, my initial thought is to put the over / under around 900 yards. That's nearly 150 yards more than Bowe's last season as the Chiefs top receiver but Maclin offers more vertical speed so I would expect his yards per reception to be higher. It's also slightly higher than Maclin's average under Reid but I'm trying to account for him being the top receiver in this offense. I was also thinking of 850 yards, which is closer to his average under Reid.
So let's split the difference and say it's 875 yards.
Maybe that's too low. Or is it too high? This is why they invented polls.