FanPost

Alex Smith’s growth and the impact of coaching stability

Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

From the FanPosts -Joel

When the Chiefs traded two second round picks for Alex Smith in 2013, my initial reaction about the deal was quite frankly… "meh". In Alex Smith, I had heard about a guy who had talent but was known as a game manager and a winner (something that I compared to asking about a girl and hearing "well, she is really nice…"). At the time, many accounted Alex’s average career to San Francisco’s coaching carousel, where Smith had to work with three different head coaches and six different offensive coordinators in eight seasons. But were those just excuses, or were they actually on to something?

Well here I am three years later and am witnessing not only an elite game-manager, but a player who makes confident throws, has insane mid-to-short range accuracy, and even attacks down field every once in a while. So what about him has changed over the years? Can we account his recent successes to the addition of Jeremy Maclin?

Or maybe, just maybe, having the same coaches has finally given Alex the chance to be the type of QB that got him drafted number one overall in 2005.

Coaching Stability

Although it might seem a bit obvious, players (especially QBs), typically perform better under stable environments as far as coaching is concerned. The ideal situation and blueprint for successful young QBs seems to be 1. Draft a QB 2. Let them learn the offense 3. Give them a few weapons. 4. Wait.

With that being said, there are actually quite a few teams who over the years have strayed away from this model, and it might not surprise you who they are. The following teams have current QBs who have never had the same head coach and offensive coordinator for three consecutive seasons:

Vikings, Raiders, Jags, Rams, Buccs, Titans, Redskins, Bills, Bears, Browns, Dolphins, Jets, Eagles, 49ers.

This leaves us with 16 QBs (and Alex Smith) who have experienced at least 3 years of the same head coach and offensive coordinator.

Year 3: The Year of the QB

With Alex Smith finishing off his third full season for the Chiefs, I wondered if there was a specific year that quarterbacks finally broke out. Sure Alex was solid last year, but it really seems as if year 3 was the year he took the next step in his career. Is this normal for QBs in the NFL? Well, let's take a look...

As I mentioned, there are 17 total starting QBs (including Smith) who have at some point in their career had the same coaching staff for 3 straight years. What may surprise you though, is just how steadily each of these QBs has progressed over those specific years:

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

QB

Rookie Year

First Stability Years

HC

OC

Rate

QBR

YPG

Win %

Rate

QBR

YPG

Win %

Rate

QBR

YPG

Win %

Palmer

2004

2004-2006

Lewis

Bratkowski

77.3

223

0.462

101.1

240

0.688

93.9

54.1

252

0.500

Ryan

2008

2009-2011

M. Smith

Mularkey

80.9

53.7

208

0.643

91.0

64.2

232

0.813

92.2

65.3

261

0.625

Flacco

2008

2008-2010

Harbough

Cameron

80.3

44.8

186

0.688

88.9

51.9

226

0.563

93.6

58.0

226

0.750

Newton

2013

2013-2015

Rivera

Shula

84.5

56.2

253

0.375

86.2

57.6

242

0.438

88.8

61.1

211

0.750

Dalton

2011

2011-2013

Lewis

Gruden

80.4

44.5

212

0.563

87.4

48.6

229

0.625

88.8

56.8

268

0.688

Romo

2004

2007-2009

Phillips

Garrett

97.4

66.5

263

0.813

91.4

48.3

265

0.615

97.6

58.3

280

0.688

P. Manning

1998

1998-2000

Mora

Moore

71.2

234

0.188

90.7

258

0.813

94.7

276

0.625

Stafford

2009

2009-2011

Schwartz

Linehan

61.0

31.5

227

0.200

91.3

44.0

178

0.333

97.2

60.9

315

0.625

Rodgers

2005

2008-2010

McCarthy

Philbin

93.8

60.5

252

0.375

103.2

67.2

277

0.688

101.2

62.3

262

0.667

Luck

2012

2012-2014

Pagano

Hamilton

76.5

67.4

273

0.688

87.0

63.5

239

0.688

96.5

61.5

298

0.688

Brady

2000

2001-2003

Belichick

Weis

86.5

190

0.786

85.7

235

0.563

85.9

226

0.875

Brees

2001

2002-2004

Schottenheimer

Cameron

76.9

205

0.500

67.5

192

0.182

104.8

211

0.733

E. Manning

2004

2007-2009

Coughlin

Gilbride

73.9

39.2

209

0.625

86.4

60.4

202

0.750

93.1

62.4

251

0.500

Roethlisberger

2004

2004-2006

Cowher

Whisenhunt

98.1

187

1.000

98.6

199

0.750

75.4

45.9

234

0.467

Rivers

2004

2007-2009

Turner

Shelmon

82.4

44.6

197

0.688

105.5

66.9

251

0.500

104.4

76.1

266

0.813

Wilson

2012

2012-2014

Carroll

Bevell

100.0

72.5

194

0.688

101.2

60.5

210

0.813

95.0

70.7

217

0.750

A. Smith

2005

2013-2015

Reid

Pederson

89.1

49.7

221

0.733

93.4

55.0

218

0.533

96.9

63.3

229

0.643

83.0

52.6

220

0.592

91.6

57.3

229

0.630

94.1

61.2

252

0.670

As you can see, there seems to be a vast difference in QBs entering the first year of a system compared to the same QB three years into the system. In fact, the averages are as follows:

First Year : 83 Rating, 52.6 QBR, 220 YPG, .592 Win %

Second Year: 91.6 Rating, 57.3 QBR, 229 YPG, .630 Win %

Third Year: 94.1 Rating, 61.2 QBR, 252 YPG, .670 Win %

Now you can obviously relate some of these figures to rookie QBs naturally improving and lack of success leading to high turnover within the organization, but I still think there is something to be said about having stability within an organization.

And finally the Kansas City Chiefs have that in Andy Reid, Doug Pederson, and ole reliable Alex Smith.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.