From the FanPosts -Joel
When the Chiefs traded two second round picks for Alex Smith in 2013, my initial reaction about the deal was quite frankly… "meh". In Alex Smith, I had heard about a guy who had talent but was known as a game manager and a winner (something that I compared to asking about a girl and hearing "well, she is really nice…"). At the time, many accounted Alex’s average career to San Francisco’s coaching carousel, where Smith had to work with three different head coaches and six different offensive coordinators in eight seasons. But were those just excuses, or were they actually on to something?
Well here I am three years later and am witnessing not only an elite game-manager, but a player who makes confident throws, has insane mid-to-short range accuracy, and even attacks down field every once in a while. So what about him has changed over the years? Can we account his recent successes to the addition of Jeremy Maclin?
Or maybe, just maybe, having the same coaches has finally given Alex the chance to be the type of QB that got him drafted number one overall in 2005.
Coaching Stability
Although it might seem a bit obvious, players (especially QBs), typically perform better under stable environments as far as coaching is concerned. The ideal situation and blueprint for successful young QBs seems to be 1. Draft a QB 2. Let them learn the offense 3. Give them a few weapons. 4. Wait.
With that being said, there are actually quite a few teams who over the years have strayed away from this model, and it might not surprise you who they are. The following teams have current QBs who have never had the same head coach and offensive coordinator for three consecutive seasons:
Vikings, Raiders, Jags, Rams, Buccs, Titans, Redskins, Bills, Bears, Browns, Dolphins, Jets, Eagles, 49ers.
This leaves us with 16 QBs (and Alex Smith) who have experienced at least 3 years of the same head coach and offensive coordinator.
Year 3: The Year of the QB
With Alex Smith finishing off his third full season for the Chiefs, I wondered if there was a specific year that quarterbacks finally broke out. Sure Alex was solid last year, but it really seems as if year 3 was the year he took the next step in his career. Is this normal for QBs in the NFL? Well, let's take a look...
As I mentioned, there are 17 total starting QBs (including Smith) who have at some point in their career had the same coaching staff for 3 straight years. What may surprise you though, is just how steadily each of these QBs has progressed over those specific years:
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
|||||||||||||
QB |
Rookie Year |
First Stability Years |
HC |
OC |
Rate |
QBR |
YPG |
Win % |
Rate |
QBR |
YPG |
Win % |
Rate |
QBR |
YPG |
Win % |
Palmer |
2004 |
2004-2006 |
Lewis |
Bratkowski |
77.3 |
223 |
0.462 |
101.1 |
240 |
0.688 |
93.9 |
54.1 |
252 |
0.500 |
||
Ryan |
2008 |
2009-2011 |
M. Smith |
Mularkey |
80.9 |
53.7 |
208 |
0.643 |
91.0 |
64.2 |
232 |
0.813 |
92.2 |
65.3 |
261 |
0.625 |
Flacco |
2008 |
2008-2010 |
Harbough |
Cameron |
80.3 |
44.8 |
186 |
0.688 |
88.9 |
51.9 |
226 |
0.563 |
93.6 |
58.0 |
226 |
0.750 |
Newton |
2013 |
2013-2015 |
Rivera |
Shula |
84.5 |
56.2 |
253 |
0.375 |
86.2 |
57.6 |
242 |
0.438 |
88.8 |
61.1 |
211 |
0.750 |
Dalton |
2011 |
2011-2013 |
Lewis |
Gruden |
80.4 |
44.5 |
212 |
0.563 |
87.4 |
48.6 |
229 |
0.625 |
88.8 |
56.8 |
268 |
0.688 |
Romo |
2004 |
2007-2009 |
Phillips |
Garrett |
97.4 |
66.5 |
263 |
0.813 |
91.4 |
48.3 |
265 |
0.615 |
97.6 |
58.3 |
280 |
0.688 |
P. Manning |
1998 |
1998-2000 |
Mora |
Moore |
71.2 |
234 |
0.188 |
90.7 |
258 |
0.813 |
94.7 |
276 |
0.625 |
|||
Stafford |
2009 |
2009-2011 |
Schwartz |
Linehan |
61.0 |
31.5 |
227 |
0.200 |
91.3 |
44.0 |
178 |
0.333 |
97.2 |
60.9 |
315 |
0.625 |
Rodgers |
2005 |
2008-2010 |
McCarthy |
Philbin |
93.8 |
60.5 |
252 |
0.375 |
103.2 |
67.2 |
277 |
0.688 |
101.2 |
62.3 |
262 |
0.667 |
Luck |
2012 |
2012-2014 |
Pagano |
Hamilton |
76.5 |
67.4 |
273 |
0.688 |
87.0 |
63.5 |
239 |
0.688 |
96.5 |
61.5 |
298 |
0.688 |
Brady |
2000 |
2001-2003 |
Belichick |
Weis |
86.5 |
190 |
0.786 |
85.7 |
235 |
0.563 |
85.9 |
226 |
0.875 |
|||
Brees |
2001 |
2002-2004 |
Schottenheimer |
Cameron |
76.9 |
205 |
0.500 |
67.5 |
192 |
0.182 |
104.8 |
211 |
0.733 |
|||
E. Manning |
2004 |
2007-2009 |
Coughlin |
Gilbride |
73.9 |
39.2 |
209 |
0.625 |
86.4 |
60.4 |
202 |
0.750 |
93.1 |
62.4 |
251 |
0.500 |
Roethlisberger |
2004 |
2004-2006 |
Cowher |
Whisenhunt |
98.1 |
187 |
1.000 |
98.6 |
199 |
0.750 |
75.4 |
45.9 |
234 |
0.467 |
||
Rivers |
2004 |
2007-2009 |
Turner |
Shelmon |
82.4 |
44.6 |
197 |
0.688 |
105.5 |
66.9 |
251 |
0.500 |
104.4 |
76.1 |
266 |
0.813 |
Wilson |
2012 |
2012-2014 |
Carroll |
Bevell |
100.0 |
72.5 |
194 |
0.688 |
101.2 |
60.5 |
210 |
0.813 |
95.0 |
70.7 |
217 |
0.750 |
A. Smith |
2005 |
2013-2015 |
Reid |
Pederson |
89.1 |
49.7 |
221 |
0.733 |
93.4 |
55.0 |
218 |
0.533 |
96.9 |
63.3 |
229 |
0.643 |
|
83.0 |
52.6 |
220 |
0.592 |
91.6 |
57.3 |
229 |
0.630 |
94.1 |
61.2 |
252 |
0.670 |
As you can see, there seems to be a vast difference in QBs entering the first year of a system compared to the same QB three years into the system. In fact, the averages are as follows:
First Year : 83 Rating, 52.6 QBR, 220 YPG, .592 Win %
Second Year: 91.6 Rating, 57.3 QBR, 229 YPG, .630 Win %
Third Year: 94.1 Rating, 61.2 QBR, 252 YPG, .670 Win %
Now you can obviously relate some of these figures to rookie QBs naturally improving and lack of success leading to high turnover within the organization, but I still think there is something to be said about having stability within an organization.
And finally the Kansas City Chiefs have that in Andy Reid, Doug Pederson, and ole reliable Alex Smith.