The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-5 and sit two games behind the 10-3 Denver Broncos in the AFC West. It's not *that* crazy to see the Chiefs come back and win the AFC West once you look at the schedules of each team.
The Chiefs need to go plus-two to tie the Broncos and potentially win the division. If they end up in a tie, the Chiefs have a good shot at winning the tiebreaker with their 4-1 division record. Denver has a 3-2 division record with each team playing one more divisional game.
Here are the tiebreakers applied to the division:
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the teams).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
The Chiefs have a good shot at sweeping the rest of their schedule, which would put them at 11-5 on the season with a 5-1 division record. If the Broncos lost two more games, the Chiefs would then win the division because they would hold the tiebreaker (division record).
The Chiefs will be favored in each of their remaining games, including 7-point favorites over the Ravens this weekend. The Broncos are 5.5-point underdogs in Pittsburgh this weekend. That would be step one ....
Chiefs schedule: at Ravens, Browns, Raiders
Broncos schedule: at Steelers, Bengals, Chargers
AFC playoff picture
(Overall record, AFC record)
1. New England Patriots (11-2, 8-1)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-3, 8-2)
3. Denver Broncos (10-3, 6-3)
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-7, 4-5)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5, 7-2)
6. New York Jets (8-5, 6-4)
In the hunt
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5, 5-4)
8. Oakland Raiders (6-7, 6-4)
9. Buffalo Bills (6-7, 6-5)
10. Houston Texans (6-7, 4-5)
11. Miami Dolphins (5-7, 3-6)
As for the Wild Card, the Chiefs hold the head to head tiebreaker over Steelers, Raiders (currently), Bills and Texans. They're looking pretty good there if they can keep winning.
There is a real question if the Chiefs want to win the division as the likely three seed or remain the top Wild Card team. If they're the No. 5 seed, playing the AFC South winner seems a lot more appetizing than playing, say, the Steelers as the sixth seed.