clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

What would Travis Kelce's numbers look like if he had Anthony Fasano's snaps?

Another week, another ridiculous Travis Kelce stat.

By MNchiefsfan
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Another week, another mailbag. I had plenty of exceptional questions for this week, so I'm going to go ahead and just scrimp on the introduction. Let's look at some mailbag questions. As always, send any questions to MNchiefsfan@hotmail.com or tweet them to @RealMNchiefsfan. [Note by Joel: LOL Hotmail]

Also, if you feel like it, give me a follow. I'm currently sitting three followers short of an even thousand. I've been told if I reach a thousand, you become a celebrity. So that seems fun. Or don't. You know, free country. Anyway, mailbag!

Well, the easiest (and silliest) way to do it would be to do it math-style and ignore context. So let's do that first.

Kelce has played 51 snaps so far in two games, and has seven receptions for 130 yards. Using Anthony Fasano's snap count as a basis for what a "starting" tight end would get in the Chiefs offense, we'll project those numbers to see what would happen if Kelce took 61 snaps a game over a 16-game season (math!).

When we use this completely infallible recipe, in a full season as a starting tight end Travis Kelce would have 134 catches for 2,488 yards.

When we use this completely infallible recipe, in a full season as a starting tight end Travis Kelce would have 134 catches for 2,488 yards.

For once, I think math is awesome.

Of course, I'm not sure this is a totally, completely, absolutely, 100 percent accurate estimation. I suppose we COULD take into account the fact that his ridiculous yards per catch rate is bound to come down somewhat, and he wouldn't likely be targeted on such a high percentage of his snaps if he were playing full time. But still, now we know the ceiling, right?

I'm trying to keep a level head about Kelce and not overestimate him based off a few games where he took roughly a third of the snaps. That said, I very much believe that if Kelce were given the full load of a starting tight end, he would be a top 5-7 tight end statistically. Considering how much Alex Smith loves an athletic tight end, his ceiling could actually be higher. He could cut his productivity rate in HALF as a full time starter and he'd still be producing at an elite level.

That last sentence, by the way, wasn't an exaggeration. If Kelce's production literally got cut in half from that projection (which, outrageous as it is, IS based on what he's actually done with his time on the field) he would still have 67 catches for 1,244 yards. That's an incredible year for a tight end.

In short, the more ways they find to get Kelce on the field with the ball in his hands, the better.

Too bad DAT won't be playing on Sunday. Prior to seeing De'Anthony Thomas play in preseason, I didn't think there was much of a role for him on offense outside of a couple of cutesy plays a game. But watching him on the field has made me re-think that position.

For one thing, his speed is unbelievable. When he hits the open field he is absolutely GONE. Remember this?

However, it was the things I saw him do on offense that made me think he could possible do more than just return punts (and kicks?) this season. Thomas runs well out of the backfield and isn't at all afraid of contact. He also hits the edge just as fast as you'd expect, which makes him ideal for those stretch plays the Chiefs favor for Jamaal Charles. He's undersized to an extent, but he's more than capable of handling limited snaps out of the backfield.

Additionally, the Chiefs (as detailed beautifully by this FanPost) have already started running jet sweeps and option plays that would be a perfect fit for Thomas. As that post suggests, putting Thomas in those formations moves him all over the field and makes him very difficult for defenses to account for. It's hard to believe those plays were drawn up for A.J. Jenkins.

Finally, Thomas showed the ability to get open quickly when playing in the slot receiver position. He's a wonderful combination of quickness and elite top-end speed. If you'll recall, Dexter McCluster had one but not the other, leading to corners being able to close after his initial separation. With Thomas, if he gets a step on someone he's absolutely gone.

When you combine those three things (his unexpected ability as a runner, the interesting play calling that's perfect for him, and his ability to get open), I can see Thomas getting anywhere from 7-12 touches in a game. That might not sound like much, but in all reality it's a decent workload in an offense that needs more speed and playmaking ability.

In short, I think there's potential that Thomas's return, which will be delayed for yet another week, could provide a very nice boost for the offense.

This is actually pretty easy for me. The final installment of The Hobbit, hands down.

I'm way too afraid of what the new Star Wars installment is going to be. The travesty that was "The Phantom Menace" and the mostly-travesty that was "Attack of the Clones" made me very leery of trying to revisit childhood memories by watching Star Wars as an adult. At least, anything other than the original. So my excitement is mixed with a great deal of fear.

The Avengers should be fun, but I doubt I'll even see it in theaters. It's a fun movie. That's about as far as it goes for me (though I keep hearing the last Captain America movie was awesome, so maybe seeing that would raise my excitement level).

I haven't watched the new Spiderman movies, nor do I intend to. Seriously, I can't believe they're still doing that. I just... I can't even. I can't.

Superman vs. Batman is another one that will very likely be awesome or blech, without much in between. This would be my runner-up, as I think the folks in charge of it have a handle on the fact that this movie should continue to build on the "darker" DC universe that's been built by the newer Superman movies and The Dark Knight (not that it's a continuation of those Dark Knight movies, but you get my point).

The Hobbit? That I'm excited for. I'm aware Peter Jackson has basically taken the entire storyline and, well, yeah. He's been more willing to cut-and-paste than I do with legal briefs on already-decided legal issues (the 3 lawyers who read this column thought that was funny, I promise). But I'm not watching these movies to re-live the book. You can't do a faithful LOTR movie. You just can't. There's too much there. So I appreciate them for what they are; good movies that are loosely based on a great book.

Man, I dunno. I wrote about Santos earlier this week, and I maintain that even having an average kicker would have meant a different result against Denver. That said, Dave Toub is a ridiculous monster of a special teams coach. If I'm the GM, I'm patient and trust the coaches. There are plenty of examples of kickers who struggled a little early who came around later. Here's hoping with Santos it's more like sooner.

Since I write for an Internet site, the Internet is a great and beautiful thing, capable of no wrongdoing. As such, I'm forced to come to the conclusion that you are a bad person whom the Internet has decided (in all its wisdom and understanding) to punish you for your wrongdoings.

I would fearfully and respectfully offer your laptop as a sacrifice to the Internet to assuage its anger. If that doesn't work, well, my bad. But you'll still have that iPhone!

That's all for this week. Here's hoping for a season-turning win on Sunday.

More From Arrowhead Pride

Arrowhead Pride Premiere

Sign up now for a 7-day free trial of Arrowhead Pride Premier, with exclusive updates from Pete Sweeney on the ground at Arrowhead, instant reactions after each game, and in-depth Chiefs analysis from film expert Jon Ledyard.