While sitting at my desk today I had an idea. What if I took Andy Reid's career numbers and used them in a way to try and predict our record this season? I feel as though Reid has enough years under his belt to lend to some slightly legitimate estimates. I will base this prediction around playoff team competition vs non-playoff team competition. I will make a number of assumptions that most likely will be heatedly argued against in the comment section (because AP readers are smart enough to see holes in any argument.) To begin, here is a table displaying Reid's career record vs playoffs teams. Note all the stats below are based solely on the regular season.
As you can see, Reid is 27 - 55 vs playoff teams in the regular season. This equates to a 32.9% win percentage. Alternatively, Reid is 114 - 43 in regular season games vs non-playoff teams which equates to a 72.6% win percentage. These figures will be used later
Here is a list of the Chiefs' schedule this year, included are the chances the opponent will make the playoffs. The only values I will give are most likely to make the playoffs (1), could make the playoffs (2), and most likely will not make the playoffs (3).
According to this list (however you may disagree with it) the Chiefs will play 5 teams that will most likely make the playoffs, 7 teams that could make the playoffs, and 4 teams that probably wont make the playoffs. Now, using some really sloppy analytics, we can deduce a possible record for the Chiefs this season. I will value the 2's as one half of a playoff team. 3.5 will be in the playoffs and 3.5 will not be in the playoffs. Therefor the Chiefs will play 8.5 playoff teams this year and 7.5 non playoff teams.
So if you take Reid's winning% vs playoff teams and his winning% vs non playoff teams and apply it to 8.5 and 7.5 respectively, you have the following number of wins.
(8.5 * 32.9) + (7.5 * 72.6) = 8.2415 wins
From this it appears the Chiefs will finish 8 - 8, or 9 - 7. Now I am just sad....
BUT, any time I get down on our team or listen to all the analysts saying we will finish 8 - 8 (myself included), and wont make the playoffs.... I remember Week 17 of last year. Andy Reid took an entire group of backups against a playoff team and beat them. Maybe not according to the refs, but the Chiefs won that game. I have more faith in this team after all the personnel losses simply because of that game. Good coaching wins in the NFL and I believe Reid is a good coach.