clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Alex Smith has better MVP odds than any defensive player

New, comments

Bovada has released their first set of odds for the 2014 MVP race in the NFL.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Odds on the 2014 NFL MVP are out and as you'd expect with the Kansas City Chiefs, Jamaal Charles has the best odds on the team to win the MVP award at 66/1. Charles is usually grouped in with LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson as the NFL's best running backs so it was interesting to see that McCoy and Peterson had significantly better MVP odds at 25/1. Jamaal's 66/1 MVP odds are the same as Matt Forte, Demaryius ThomasDez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones and Jimmy Graham.

It's not that hard to see Jamaal Charles in the MVP race. He was absolutely one of a handful of players in the conversation last year (if it weren't for that dang Peyton Manning guy). The difference between Jamaal's numbers in 2013 and every other year is that he had the touchdowns last season. His 19 touchdowns topped his previous career high by 11. That's a huge deal. In any season a quarterback isn't throwing 55 touchdown passes, Jamaal's 2013 numbers would make him a serious MVP candidate.

Meanwhile, Alex Smith has the same MVP odds as Alfred Morris, CJ Spiller and Antonio Brown at 150/1. Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco and even Johnny Manziel have better MVP odds at 100/1. Flacco, I can understand with his big arm. Dalton, I guess I can understand because he has AJ Green. But Johnny Football over Alex? Hmm.  Alex may not put up the big numbers but as long as he keeps those interceptions low and the Chiefs are scoring lots of points, I'll be happy. (Except for that playoff game where Alex balled out and the Chiefs still lost. I wasn't happy then.)

The players with the best MVP odds all have something in common -- they're quarterbacks! Adrian Peterson in 2012 is the only non-quarterback to win this since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. This list of the top odds via Bovada should tell you where the MVP award is these days:

Peyton Manning: 3/1
Drew Brees: 11/2
Aaron Rodgers: 15/2
Tom Brady: 9/1
Andrew Luck: 16/1
Jay Cutler: 20/1
Matthew Stafford: 20/1
Colin Kaepernick: 25/1
Cam Newton: 25/1
Russell Wilson: 25/1
Robert Griffin III: 25/1

What you don't see on the list is defensive players. The last defensive player to win an MVP was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. That's a looooong time. If JJ Watt's dominance the last couple of seasons isn't worthy of the MVP, it's hard to see how a defensive player could win the MVP award. Maybe Justin Houston can put up 20-plus sacks and test this theory.