How will Alex Smith, Aaron Murray and the Kansas City Chiefs QB situation work out?

For the first time since I was born in Kansas City, I feel like the Kansas City Chiefs are making good investments into the quarterback position. Last year, Andy Reid did a complete swap of all quarterbacks on the roster, replacing them with Alex Smith (acquired via trade), Chase Daniel (signed in free agency) and Tyler Bray (undrafted free agent).

The KC Chiefs added fifth round pick Georgia QB Aaron Murray to their quarterback collection on Saturday afternoon. The Chiefs visited with him before the draft so the idea of picking him wasn't completely off the radar. But still, this is KC and this is a quarterback they drafted. It's a big deal.

What comes of the Chiefs QB situation now? We are going to write a million stories on this in the offseason because it's one of the more intriguing story lines on this team right now. Here are my initial thoughts on how the Chiefs quarterback situation pans out.

Lock to make the roster: Alex Smith

For a variety of reasons, Smith is my only lock on the roster. Murray is right there as a potential lock but it's not unheard of for a fifth round pick, especially one coming off an ACL injury, not to make the team. So I'll say Alex is the only true lock at this point understanding plenty of ya'll would put Murray here, too.

Smith will be negotiating with the Chiefs on a long-term deal. He is the starter and I do not believe the Murray pick will have an affect on his negotiations. The only question is how many years will be on his contract as the Chiefs starting quarterback.

Probably going to make the roster: Aaron Murray

The biggest question mark is his ACL but the Chiefs knew about his injury coming in and knew they probably wouldn't expect much out of him in the first year. That means expectations will be low for him right off the bat. And if expectations are low, it's easier to impress and harder to disappoint. Thus, Murray is probably going to make the roster as the Chiefs knew when he was drafted he would need development.

I don't know: Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray

I originally had Chase Daniel filed under "Probably going to make the roster" because I would predict he does make it. But his contract is just high enough for a backup quarterback on a team with tight cap space that it makes me wonder.

Daniel is the second-best quarterback on the Chiefs roster and not many people would question that. Talent-wise, they are a better team with him than without him. In a salary cap world there are limited resources, which means the Chiefs will have to decide if the $1.4 million they'd save cutting Daniel is worth it. At this point, without knowing anything about Bray or Murray, the Chiefs should hang onto Daniel.

Bray is an unknown right now. Anyone clamoring for Bray is basing this off of the same year-plus old game tape that resulted in going undrafted. That's not a knock on him, just recognizing that we really don't know anything about Bray or his development.

If you believe Murray makes the team, I would guess that Bray is the odd man out. But ... as noted above, we can't confidently say anything about how Bray has developed over the last year.

The Chiefs are likely to keep three quarterbacks this season. Who are those three?