One of my favorite football writers on the Internet is becoming Chase Stuart of Football Perspective. His analysis can be heavy on the numbers and stats but the end result is usually something that appeals to me, a regular fan who doesn't pore over DVOA numbers and talk about Pythagorean records.
Today's post is about projecting team wins using DVOA. It's not as easy as it sounds -- read the post for the math and reasoning behind it all.
The result is the table, which projects 9.3 wins for the Chiefs.
That's great news! But it's still really early.
The Chiefs 9.3 rank sixth in this projection, behind the San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. Based on what we know from last year, it's not a stretch to point to those six teams as among the NFL's best.
There are a million things that will change between now and game day -- free agency, the draft, roster cuts and lots more movement that will affect how each of these teams are viewed. In 2012, the Chiefs didn't seem to be as bad as their record indicated. And in 2013, they didn't seem to be as good as their record indicated. Maybe 2014 is the year to balance it out. Nine wins seems like a good projection at this point.