Over the past few months I've mentioned that offensive tackles picked near the top of the draft don't seem to bust very often. I suppose I could've done the work to support that but someone else already has. NFL Network's Albert Breer filed a story on Jaguars GM David Caldwell and his first draft in Jacksonville and in the story Breer cites Tony Khan, owner Shad Khan's son, with these numbers on offensive tackles:
"...71 percent of tackles drafted in the top 10 from 1995 to 2008 have made at least one Pro Bowl, while only 16 percent of tackles drafted between 11 and 32 over that period did the same. Also, top-10 tackles drafted from 1990 to 2008 averaged a staggering 70.5 starts in their first five years, a number that dipped to 58.5 starts for those drafted from 11 to 32."
Those are some impressive numbers. That said ... busts still happen. Sometimes, for whatever reason, it doesn't work out. But part of the (valid) argument with selecting Fisher is that his floor is high. History says an offensive tackle isn't as likely to bust as other positions.
If only offensive tackles were an indicator of team wins ... are they? Stats folks, step up.