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Kansas City Chiefs over/under on wins, a more optimistic view

Last week we looked at the over/under win totals from the Atlantis Sports book, which had the Kansas City Chiefs at 6.5 wins. We thought that was a fair number although 92 percent of Chiefs fans took the over (no surprise). Now RJ Bell of has win totals out and the KC Chiefs number is slightly more optimistic in this one.


Seven and a half wins is the over/under for the 2013 KC Chiefs according to RJ Bell of One win better than the last win total we looked at. Another sportsbook has the Chiefs at seven wins.

I believe the Chiefs can win anywhere from 6-10 games. Six on the pessimistic side, if Alex Smith is merely average and the defensive free agent additions don't make a big splash. 9-10 wins on the optimistic side, if Smith is better than average and the defense is as good as it looks on paper. This team is not that different and not that far removed from one that won 10 games three years ago. The same strengths back then that carried the team are carrying the team now. The Chiefs also aren't at all far removed from a two-win season. It cuts both ways.

The Atlantis sportsbook said this of the Chiefs last week: "For me, the toughest win totals to set were the Chiefs, Eagles and Lions because they all underachieved last year. The Chiefs and Eagles have new coaches, with Andy Reid and Chip Kelly, so you'd like to think that would make a difference. But it's an unknown."

My 6-10 wins prediction doesn't seem like such a cop out now that we know nobody is having an easy time predicting their win totals.

In these odds the Broncos are winning the AFC West, just as almost everyone is predicting them to do. Denver is clearly a better team than the Chiefs or anyone else in the AFC West. They likely will not stumble, barring injury. I don't expect the Chiefs to beat out the Broncos. I do, however, think it's realistic to expect the Chiefs to beat out the Chargers and Raiders in the division. The Chargers are at 7.5 wins, just like the Chiefs, while the Raiders are the Raiders at 5.5 wins.

The Chiefs also have the same Super Bowl odds -- 60/1 -- as the Chargers.

Your AFC playoff teams according to these odds: Broncos, Patriots, Texans, Steelers, Ravens and Colts. There is usually more playoff turnover than that on an annual basis. I suspect we'll see a couple of these teams (Ravens? Texans?) miss out.

Your NFC playoff teams according to these odds: 49ers, Seahawks, Packers, Falcons, Saints and Giants. Don't sleep on the Saints!

Over/under win totals

San Francisco 49ers: 11.5 wins (NFC West winner)
Denver Broncos: 11.5 wins (AFC West winner)
New England Patriots: 11 wins (AFC East winner)
Seattle Seahawks: 10.5 wins (#1 NFC Wildcard)
Houston Texans: 10 wins (AFC South winner)
Green Bay Packers: 10 wins (NFC North winner)
Atlanta Falcons: 10 wins (NFC South winner)
New Orleans Saints: 9 wins (#2 NFC Wildcard)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9 wins (AFC North winner)
NY Giants: 9 wins (NFC East winner)
Baltimore Ravens: 8.5 wins (#1 AFC wildcard)
Chicago Bears: 8.5 wins
Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 wins (#2 AFC wildcard)
Cincinnati Bengals: 8.5 wins
Dallas Cowboys: 8 wins
Washington Redskins: 8 wins
Tampa Bay Bucs: 8 wins
Miami Dolphins: 7.5 wins
Minnesota Vikings: 7.5 wins
Detroit Lions: 7.5 wins
San Diego Chargers: 7.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs: 7.5 wins
St. Louis Rams: 7 wins
Carolina Panthers: 7 wins
Philadelphia Eagles: 7 wins
Tennessee Titans: 6.5 wins
NY Jets: 6.5 wins
Buffalo Bills: 6.5 wins
Cleveland Browns: 6 wins
Oakland Raiders: 5.5 wins
Arizona Cardinals: 5 wins
Jacksonville Jags: 5 wins

KC Chiefs 2013 schedule:

Week 1. @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Sept. 8, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 2. Dallas Cowboys (Sept. 15, 12 p.m., Fox)
Week 3. @ Philadelphia Eagles (Sept. 19, 7:25 p.m., NFLN)
Week 4. New York Giants (Sept. 29, 12 p.m., Fox)
Week 5. @ Tennessee Titans (Oct. 6, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 6. Oakland Raiders (Oct 13, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 7. Houston Texans (Oct 20, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 8. Cleveland Browns (Oct. 27, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 9. @ Buffalo Bills (Nov. 3, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 10. BYE
Week 11. @ Denver Broncos (Nov. 17, 3:05 p.m., CBS)
Week 12. San Diego Chargers (Nov. 24, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 13. Denver Broncos (Dec. 1, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 14. @ Washington Redskins (Dec. 8, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 15. @ Oakland Raiders (Dec. 15, 3:05 p.m., CBS)
Week 16. Indianapolis Colts (Dec. 22, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 17. @ San Diego Chargers (Dec. 29, 3:25 p.m., CBS)

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