I was talking with a buddy earlier this week about what the odds on potential playoff games might be. Would the Chiefs be favored over, say, the Ravens or Dolphins? Yes they would. Over the Broncos or Patriots? Probably not. What about Indy, the Chiefs Week 16 opponent? I figured the Chiefs might be a three or four point favorite.
Turns out, the Chiefs are a full touchdown favorite in some places for their final regular season home game this year, 6.5-point favorite in others. That seems like a pretty big line for the Chiefs, who are just now starting to find their groove. The Chiefs have put up 101 points in the last two weeks so oddsmakers have to look at them knowing they're on that kind of stream.
The Colts have demonstrated a higher ceiling this year than the Chiefs, beating the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. They've also lost to Miami and St. Louis. Outside of one three-game winning streak at the end of September, the Colts have alternated weeks with a win and then a loss, a win and then a loss, and so on. Last week? They won, so if the trend holds, the Chiefs will win. I guess the Chiefs consistency could win this round.
Still, a touchdown favorite seems like quite a bit. I expect the game to be a lot closer than that. In fact, I am predicting just a 1-point game (the AP staff picks will be out sometime tomorrow).