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Chiefs vs. Jets: The Opening Line

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Good evening folks! After a good road victory yesterday, the Chiefs will hope to keep some momentum as they head back out on the road for a Week 14 matchup with the New York Jets. The Chiefs improved to 5-7 yesterday, while the Jets were winners as well and rose to 7-5.

Many times, when people discuss some of the best defensive teams in the league, the Jets are brought up. Whether this is warranted or not, this is the public perception. Will this affect how Vegas sets their line against our struggling offense? Will the road victory over a tough opponent by the Chiefs bring the spread down a little bit from last week? Will the uncertainty of the Chiefs' QB situation keep the line at a high number? Let's find out this and more in the Week 14 edition of The Opening Line.

The Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets have a very similar history in their years of existence. Both entered the AFL in 1960 (as the Dallas Texans and the New York Titans) and both were able to defeat the NFL for a Super Bowl Championship, doing so in back to back years. Even the all-time record between the two teams is tied at 17-17-1, so these two franchises are most certainly joined together in their history as well as their play on the field.

The first available line on this year's game was 8.5 and the total was set at 36.5. As I write this, the line in most places has risen to 9 and the total is the same for the most part. The 9 point spread does not surprise me too much for a few reasons. First, as I said, the public perception is that the Jets are still very good and that the Chiefs are not. Whether that is fair reasoning is meaningless. Next, with Tyler Palko likely starting again, the oddsmakers are assuming they will get enough Jets backers to essentially say "If we can score 13 to 17 points, we should cover." Third, a spread of 9 protects against a large amount of people teasing the Jets down under the key number of 3. If the Jets win by 3 with the current spread, all 6 point teasers would lose (with locals) or push (online). Whether you realize it or not, this last one comes into play a lot when assigning a spread. Lastly, the Jets are 5-1 at home and like the Chiefs are fighting for a playoff spot. With the home field and being the supposed "better team", the 9 points seems just right. As for me? If the line stays here, I will be on the Chiefs for the third straight week. Be sure to check back in on Sunday, as the last two weeks we have analyzed the line movements and where the money is going and it has helped us win some cash.

Let's check out a couple of recent trends:

  • KANSAS CITY is 0-5 ATS against AFC East teams over the last three seasons.
  • KANSAS CITY is 4-2 ATS against teams with a winning record this season.
  • KANSAS CITY is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • KANSAS CITY is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games where the total is between 35.5 and 38.
  • NEW YORK is 4-2 ATS in their last six games vs. the AFC West.
  • NEW YORK is 7-3 ATS in their last ten games when playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.

Not a lot of trends this week to focus on, but still a few to think about. This season should tell us that trends and history can go right out the window once it's gametime, because just about anything can happen with us this year. As others have pointed out, a win against the Jets can literally thrust the Chiefs back into the heart of the divisional race. Let's hope the team has a solid week of practice and perhaps the boys can make that possibility a reality. For now though, this has been your Week 14 installment of The Closing Line. Have a great night!