Chiefs vs. Packers: The Closing Line (Weird Developments!)

Good morning Chiefs fans! You all know me as a huge (former) Todd Haley fan, but I must say I am very excited about today's game. It's not often you get to play a team on a run toward history, have a new coach and start a QB who can throw a good ten yard pass in the same week! In all seriousness though, with the inactives for the Packers today, who knows? Maybe our boys can put on a great show today.

In The Opening Line, we saw the line at 13.5 and the total at 46.5. Did the public drive this line up in Green Bay's favor? Do bettors see something special in this week's new-look Chiefs? I'll have the answer to those questions and more in our Week 15 edition of The Closing Line.

Brace yourself before reading this. As of 11:00 AM Arrowhead Time, the spread has done some crazy things in the last hour. The Chiefs are now only 11 point underdogs at the Las Vegas Hilton and are anywhere between 11 and 12 on most major offshore sites. I have a lot of experience with these things as you may have gathered during the season, but this is not one I quite understand. Let's go to the chart we have been using:

12/18/11		307	Green Bay	14	-11.5		45.5	47080	84%		80%
1:00PM		308	Kansas City	46½	11.5		45.5		16%		20%

47,000+ wagers are in. 84% of the public is on Green Bay. Yet in just the last hour the line has gone down TWO whole points. In the gambling world, that's the equivalent (most times) of tens of thousands of dollars coming in on the Chiefs from a small percentage of people. I think this is a crazy development personally, and while it gives me hope that the Chiefs will be in this game, I cannot advise going against the Packers in this one.

Also, here's a nugget I got from a good source during the middle of the week:

GREEN BAY AT KANSAS CITY: The Packers opened at -14. That line didn’t move much at first, but we are seeing some underdog money come in before press time. Many stores are at -13.5 now. Green Bay has made it clear that they’ll back off with big leads because they want to be at full strength in the playoffs. Theres a feeling that Kansas City’s coaching and quarterback changes may help them be more competitive at high prices, so there may not be a replay of last week’s tank job in New York. Not much interest yet in the total.

Doesn't apply as much with the new developments, but hey, more evidence that a lot of people like the Chiefs. I am sitting this one out.

Fantasy Football Playoffs (from ESPN)

Ruled out before Sunday: QB Sam Bradford (ankle), WR Deion Branch (groin), TE Scott Chandler (ankle),, QB A.J. Feeley (right thumb), WR Jacoby Ford (foot), RB Matt Forte (knee), RB Mark Ingram (toe), WR Greg Jennings (knee), WR Andre Johnson (hamstring), QB Colt McCoy (head), RB Darren McFadden (foot), RB Javon Ringer (hand), TE Benjamin Watson (head).

Early games (1 p.m. ET)

TE Dallas Clark (neck, doubtful): inactive
QB Matt Hasselbeck (calf, questionable): active
WR Devin Hester (ankle, questionable): active
QB Matt Moore (head, questionable): active
RB James Starks (knee, questionable): inactive
WR Nate Washington (ankle, questionable): active

Late games (4 p.m. ET)

RB Montario Hardesty (calf, questionable)
QB Kevin Kolb (head, questionable)
WR Jeremy Maclin (hamstring, questionable)
WR Denarius Moore (foot, questionable)
RB Kevin Smith (ankle, questionable)
WR Wes Welker (knee, questionable)

Steve in RI's Selections

Miami +1

NY Giants -6

Minnesota +7

San Diego +2.5

Cleveland +7

Well, it's getting close to gametime everyone. Hope this helps on your last minute selections! Let's go out with realistic expectations and hope our guys can shock the world!! For now, this has been your week 15 edition of The Opening Line!