Recently I chatted with Bill Barnwell of FootballOutsiders.com about the 2010 version of the Kansas City Chiefs. FO came out with their 2010 Almanac and I was was able to get a sneak peek at it.
It's a fascinating read the way they try to break down the games in numbers, similar to Sabermetrics in baseball.
We already know that FO's numbers say the Chiefs will win the AFC West and that their schedule is predicted to be among the easiest in the league.
They also said way back in February that Chiefs OLB Tamba Hali is the best pass-rusher in the AFC West -- and that includes Broncos OLB Elvis Dumervil.
"I think that the difference between them is much smaller than the public perception of the difference between them," Barnwell told us this week. "Dumervil attacks an offense's weakest point; Hali usually spends most of his time rushing at left tackle, and he does a good job of it; he abused Ryan Clady last year, among the league's best left tackles.
"When you add hits and hurries to the equation, Hali had 41.5 quarterback "incidents", and Dumervil had 41. He's better against the run, and with Dumervil playing in front of a far superior secondary, Hali likely had to get to the quarterback quicker."
I've said this week that during training camp Hali is one of those guys with a non-stop motor. He's definitely a coach's favorite because of that and even though the sack numbers may not show it, his hustle is making a difference.
Barnwell, by the way, has a good track record of predicting this sort of stuff.
He wrote in August of 2009: "We're very high on Charles, who was far better than either Johnson or Kolby Smith a year ago. I think the chances of Johnson making it to the Pro Bowl are probably a little below that of Johnson losing his job to Charles altogether. So we'll see, I guess."
Some of you didn't think that was possible last year at this time. Maybe we'll see the same result with Hali.
We'll have some more from Barnwell and the FO crew as the week goes on.