Each week, Football Outsiders publishes their updated NFL playoff odds. For most of 2010, the Kansas City Chiefs have been sitting pretty atop the AFC West as the team most likely to make it to the playoffs from that division.
Until this week.
Football Outsiders now has the San Diego Chargers as the favorite to make the playoffs from the AFC West -- not the Chiefs. FO says the Chiefs and Chargers are about even to win the AFC West division outright; gives the Chargers a 6.3% chance to get a first round bye; and gives San Diego a 57% chance overall of making any playoff spot.
The Kansas City Chiefs, on the other hand, are only given a 2.8% chance of a first round bye; a 3.9% chance of a wild card spot; and a 51% overall chance of making any playoff spot.
| Team | Rec | Mean Wins | Win the Div. | Bye | Wild Card | Total Playoff Chances |
| Chargers | 6-5 | 9.5 | 49.70% | 6.30% | 7.30% | 57.00% |
| Chiefs | 7-4 | 9.9 | 48.00% | 2.80% | 3.90% | 51.90% |
| Raiders | 5-6 | 6.9 | 2.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.30% |
| Broncos | 3-8 | 5.1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Keep in mind, even though the Chiefs have a better record than the Chargers, Football Outsiders includes home field advantage as well as future opponents in mind when making these odds.
But come on. The Chargers have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Chiefs? Give me a break.