You can ask anyone that thinks they know anything about football whether time of possession means anything in the NFL and you will get a resounding, yes. It just makes sense.
The more a team has the ball the more likely they are going to win, right?
There has been a lot of talk around Chiefs nation that the way to beat Peyton Manning is to hold the ball as long as possible. If Peyton doesn't have the ball very much then the Chiefs would win. Right?
Well, just how many top 10 teams in time-of-possession have 3 wins or more after the fourth week of the season? I decided to look that up and I found that there are 10 teams in the NFL that have 3 wins and only 2 of them are in the top ten in time of possession.
TOP TEN IN TIME OF POSSESSION
That seemed to go against common sense. It would seem that the teams that are winning more would be at the top of that list.
Well, if the teams that are at the top of the time-of-possession chart are not all the 3-0 teams then surely they would be the teams that have given up the least amount of points, right? As the rational would go, if you have the ball longer then the other team then the other team is less likely to score (because they have the ball less).
TOP TEN IN POINTS SURRENDERED
But that assertion would appear to be false (at least 4 weeks into the 2010 season). Only three teams that are in the top ten in time of possession are in the top ten in points allowed: Vikings, Falcons, and Cowboys. And two of those teams are 1-2.
Even after looking at this data it still seems to be common sense to think that the Chiefs need to "control" the ball this Sunday against the Colts. But while they attempt to control the ball they also need to score some points. Just holding onto the ball isn't good enough...you still have to score to win.
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