KC Chiefs vs Texans: Analyzing Houston's Play Preference Tendencies

As a companion to the Analyzing Houston's Play Direction Tendencies this post will attempt to break down the preferences each team has when running or passing the ball. What does a team prefer to do on 1st down? How about on second down when in the red zone?

Let's take a look at those preferences.

First Down Observations:

• The Texans appear to be a well balanced offense. Houston has ran the ball 50.69% of the time while passing it 49.31%.
• When in the red zone, the Texans run the ball 75% of the time on 1st and 10.
• When winning by two scores, Houston runs the ball 95% of the time on first down.

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Second Down Observations:

• On second down expect the Texans to run the ball when there are 2 or less yards to go.
• Conversely, the Texans appear to prefer the pass when in 2nd and 6 or more.
• Expect Houston to run the ball on second down when winning by 1 score. The Texans have run the ball 100% of the time when faced with a 2nd down of 5 or less when up by one score.

Third Down Observations:

• When the Texans get into 3rd and long Chiefs fans can expect the ball to be in the air, as you can see from the graph above. In the previous games, Houston has passed the ball 100% of the time when in 3rd and 8 or 10.
• In general, it can be seen in in the graph above that Houston likes to pass the ball on 3rd down, period. The only exception being the deviation when in 3rd and 6.
• When faced with a 3rd down of 2 or less the Texans have run the ball 100% of the time when up by only one score. In a 3rd and 3-6, they have ran the ball 66% of the time.

DOWN ANALYSIS

Running Game

Down Analysis Observations:

• From the bar graph at the top of this article it can be seen that the Texans like to mix it up on first down: a 50/50 split between run and pass. They back that philosophy up by gaining an average of 5.5 yards per rush or 6.5 yards per pass on first down. When a team has those kinds of numbers on first down they are probably moving the ball pretty good. Which they do.
• The balanced success between the run and pass for Houston posses a serious threat to the Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Colts were thought to possibly be one dimensional; stop the pass and make them run was the Chiefs plan. Houston is no such beast.

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