Since i was told a couple times (in very nice ways) to do the research, I felt compelled to do so (my girlfriend was stoked...).  I picked 2004 randomly and also because it gives some time for devolopment.  Let me just say that I don't/didn't want PacChief's theory to pass nor fail.  I was completely indifferent.  I just wanted all the information first.

 

 

 

(Though, I wish I would have chosen a year w/ more Juniors.  But I didn't know until I already did the legwork)

2004 NFL Quarterback Draft Class:

Seniors with at least 3 Years Starting:

(In Draft Order)

%            Yds         TD           INT

Eli Manning- Mississippi-       1 ProBowl, 1 Superbowl

48.5        170         0              1

63.5        2948       31           9

58           3401       21           15

62.4        3600       29           10

 

Phillip Rivers- NC State           1 ProBowl

53.7        3054       25           10

65           2586       16           7

62.7        3353       20           10

72           4491       34           7

 

JP Losman- Tulane        (9 Games freshman yr, split time)

50.4        722         4              2

63.3        487         4              1

57.4        2468       19           10

59.5        3077       33           14

 

Matt Shaub-  Virginia

87.5        50           0              1

58.3        1524       10           8

68.9        2976       28           7

69.7        2952       18           10

 

Luke McCown- Louisiana T

66.1        2544       21           15

58.9        3337       28           14

58.6        3539       19           19

56.9        3246       19           14

 

Jeff Smoker- Mich State  Started 3 years but can’t find each year's stats

2003                                                                                                                                      61.9        3395       21           14

carreer  @ michigan                         

 59.6        8932       61           39

 

John Navarre- Michigan

51.9        583         8              1

53.8        2195       17           12

55.4        2905       21           7

59.2        3331       24           10

 

Cody Pickett- Washington

50           12           0              0

56.1        2403       10           14

59.6        4458       28           14

56.6        3043       15           13

 

Casey Bramlet- Wyoming

started @ least 3 seasons, but again can't find the info

School Record comp-767 (also Yds and TD's)

?              9684       56           ?

 

Bradlee Van Pelt- Colorado St

48.5        1247       8              10

52.3        2073       10           7

60.6        2845       19           13

 

Seniors w/ at Least 2 Years:

Craig Krenzel- Ohio State

50           41           0              0

53.7        282         1              3

59.4        2110       12           7

55           2040       15           10

 

Jim Sorgi- Wisconsin    8 Games FR & SO Years (16G)

48.5        1096       9              8

54.3        536         1              2

56.5        2251       17           9

 

BJ Symons- Texas Tech

65.4        5833       52           22

 

 

Seniors:

Andy Hall- Delaware/Georgia T

25           37           0              0

55.6        262         1              2

 

Josh Harris- Bowling Green

60.9        1022       9              3

 

Juniors w/ at Least 3 Years Exp:

Ben Rothlisberger- Miami OH   1 ProBowl, 2 SuperBowls 

63.3        3105       25           13

63.3        3238       22           11

69.1        4486       37           10

 

Juniors:

Matt Mauck- LSU                            

43.9           224         0              2

48.5        782         9              2

64           2825       28           14

 

Actual Draft Order:

Manning, Rivers, Rothlisberger, Losman, Schaub, McCown, Krenzel, Hall, Harris, Sorgi, Smoker, Navarre, Pickett, Bramlet, Mauck, Symons, Van Pelt.

 

Now Listed in order by the tested Criteria (or so I believe):

For clarification that criteria is 3 years Starting Experience and entered the draft as a Senior (or Junior...).  Senior over Junior when both have the same experience. (most basic and original form)

(The number is their actual selection number)

P. Rivers  4

E. Manning   1

J. Smoker  201

L. McCown  106

J. Navarre  202

M. Shaub  90

J. Lossman  22

C. Pickett  217

C. Bramlet 218

B. Van Pelt  250

B. Rothlisberer  11

B. Symons  148

C. Krenzel  148

J. Sorgi  193

M. Mauck  225

A. Hall  185

J. Harris  187

*To rank players with similar criteria I used PacChiefs reasoning of improvment with each year.

I know Roethlisberger was projected 1st round and ranked #2 but that doesn't fit the criteria.  There were 10 Senior QB's with 3 years of experience vs a Junior with 3yrs. 

 

Busts w/ the experience:

(Maybe too soon but seem to be busts) Trent Edwards, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye,

Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Chris Simms, Chris Redman, Giovanni Carmazzi, Tim Couch (2.5), Andrew Walter, Trent Dilfer(?), Cade McNown, Kordell Stewart, Charlie Batch (6yrs!), I think that's enough for now.

Gems w/ out the experience:

 David Gerrard, Tom Brady, Joe Montana (22 starts), Drew Bledsoe (Jr. & 28 starts),  Trent Green (5,400 yards with 23 touchdowns and 32 interceptions), Mark Brunell,...

I'm Done.  It's 2 in the morning and  tired.  Make your own judments, I just wanted to show some info.  Experience makes the difference, no doubt, but it's not hte end-all-be-all by any means.  Plenty of early draft picks w/ plenty of experience who wound up busts. 

(udated) My opinion:  I can buy the idea of Juniors drafted high while having minimal playing experience have a VERY high bust rate (I don’t think that’s a new notion, but a very common critique).  Never questioned that.  But as far as Seniors having 3years of experience not being busts I don’t believe,  I easily found 16 guys that prove that.