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The Chiefs Have a Chance at the Playoffs

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A mathematical chance that is.

Football Outsiders threw a bunch of their stats into a bunch of simulations and poof! out came their playoff odds for Week 7.

Team Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT
DEN 12.1 31.4% 39.9% 17.1% 8.8% 1.0% 1.0% 97.1% 71.3% 2.1% 99.2%
SD 7.9 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 11.0% 11.7% 2.8% 0.5% 22.7% 25.5%
KC 4.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8%
OAK 5.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%

Mean wins is what FB predicts will be the win total for each team, again based on their football stats.

The numbers on the top row of the table are the chances that each team will get that particular seed in the AFC playoffs. Odds on winning the AFC West, getting a first round bye, nabbing the AFC wild card spot and overall playoff chances follow those.

As you can see, the Kansas City Chiefs have a .8% overall chance of making the playoffs according to FB. Cue Jim Carey line.

Here are a few more interesting stats from FB's playoff odds page:

  • FB gives both the Lions and the Bucs zero chance of making the playoffs
  • St. Louis comes in with a .2% chance and the Redskins come in at .4%
  • The Colts have by far the best chance to get the #1 seed in the AFC - 58.6%
  • New Orleans is at 55% chance to get the #1 seed in the NFC

Overall, some pretty interesting stuff.

This got me thinking. There are ten games left. How many do you think the Chiefs are going to win? We haven't done a post like this in a while.

Here is the Chiefs schedule.

My predictions and one-liners on the rest of the schedule are after the jump. Give us yours in the comments.

  • San Diego (L) I can't shake Philip Rivers tearing up our secondary from my head.
  • @Jacksonville (L) This one could be close but I think the Jaguars have more ability right now.
  • @Oakland (W) We have to win this game. Have to.
  • Pittsburgh (L) Pittsburgh isn't the team they were last year but they're still far ahead of the Chiefs.
  • @San Diego (L) Rivers. Again.
  • Denver (W) Here is my homer pick. I do think Denver will have fallen back to earth at this point in the season although I have to hand it to them - they appear legit. The Arrowhead advantage comes into play here.
  • Buffalo - (W) I'd like to think that Todd Haley has our team far enough along by Week 15 to compete with a team like the Bills.
  • Cleveland (W) Same thing here. Chiefs win three in a row for the first time since 2006.
  • @Cincinnati (L) Carson Palmer has looked fairly good this season. The Bengals have surprised people, including myself, which makes me think they could take down the Chiefs.
  • @Denver - We're not going to beat the Broncos in Mile High.

If you'd like, cut and paste this into the comments and put a W/L by each game.

San Diego
@Jacksonville
@Oakland
Pittsburgh
@San Diego
Denver
Buffalo
Cleveland
@Cincinnati
@Denver

Make sure you vote in the poll too.