AP Mock Draft Predictions vs. Results

From the FanPosts.  Thanks to Stag for putting this together.     -Primetime

It recently occurred to me that we had no real follow-up posts to the (in my opinion) fantastically successful 1st annual Arrowhead Pride Community Mock Draft. In that vein, I've compiled a list of the predictions proffered by the astute readers/posters of AP against the actual results of the 2008 NFL Draft.

In the table below, we have the pick #, the original team assigned to pick in that spot (figuring out all the draft day trades and including them seemed too big a headache), the AP prediction, the actual player picked at that #, and the difference between the number of the prediction vs. where the player was actually taken. For example, the "reach factor" for Matt Ryan is -2, since our mock had him going #1, but he actually went #3. (basically, plus is good, minus is bad)

Pick Original team AP selection Actual selection Reach factor
1 Miami Dolphins QB Matt Ryan OT Jake Long -2
2 St. Louis Rams OT Jake Long DE Chris Long 1
3 Atlanta Falcons DT Glenn Dorsey QB Matt Ryan -2
4 Oakland Raiders DE Chris Long RB Darren McFadden 2
5 Kansas City Chiefs DT Sedrick Ellis DT Glenn Dorsey -2
6 New York Jets RB Darren McFadden DL Vernon Gholston 2
7 New England Patriots DL Vernon Gholston DT Sedrick Ellis 1
8 Baltimore Ravens OT Ryan Clady DE Derrick Harvey -4
9 Cincinnati Bengals OLB Keith Rivers OLB Keith Rivers 0
10 New Orleans Saints CB Mike Jenkins LB Jerod Mayo -15
11 Buffalo Bills CB Leodis McKelvin CB Leodis McKelvin 0
12 Denver Broncos OT Chris Williams OT Ryan Clady -2
13 Carolina Panthers DE Derrick Harvey RB Jonathan Stewart 5
14 Chicago Bears RB Rashard Mendenhall OT Chris Williams -9
15 Detroit Lions OT Jeff Otah OG Branden Albert -4
16 Arizona Cardinals CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 0
17 Minnesota Vikings DE Philip Merling OL Gosder Cherilus -15
18 Houston Texans OG Branden Albert QB Joe Flacco 3
19 Philadelphia Eagles FS Kenny Phillips OT Jeff Otah -12
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR/RS DeSean Jackson CB Aqib Talib -29
21 Washington Redskins WR Limas Sweed OT Sam Baker -32
22 Dallas Cowboys RB Felix Jones RB Felix Jones 0
23 Pittsburgh Steelers OL Gosder Cherilus RB Rashard Mendenhall 6
24 Tennessee Titans WR Devin Thomas RB Chris Johnson -10
25 Seattle Seahawks WR Malcolm Kelly CB Mike Jenkins -26
26 Jacksonville Jaguars DE Lawrence Jackson OT Duane Brown -2
27 San Diego Chargers RB Jonathan Stewart CB Antoine Cason 14
28 Dallas Cowboys CB Aqib Talib DE Lawrence Jackson 8
29 San Francisco 49ers WR Mario Manningham DT Kentwan Balmer -53
30 Green Bay Packers CB Brandon Flowers TE Dustin Keller -5
31 New York Giants LB Jerod Mayo FS Kenny Phillips 21
32 Miami Dolphins OT Carl Nicks DE Philip Merling -132
33 St. Louis Rams CB Antoine Cason WR Donnie Avery 6
34 Atlanta Falcons QB Brian Brohm WR Devin Thomas -22
35 Kansas City Chiefs WR Jordy Nelson CB Brandon Flowers -1
36 New York Jets DE Quentin Groves WR Jordy Nelson -16
37 Atlanta Falcons OT Sam Baker ILB Curtis Lofton 16
38 Baltimore Ravens CB Justin King TE John Carlson -63
39 Cincinnati Bengals DT Kentwan Balmer OG Chilo Rachal 10
40 New Orleans Saints LB Dan Connor CB Tracy Porter -34
41 Buffalo Bills TE Martin Rucker WR James Hardy -70
42 Denver Broncos WR Earl Bennett WR Eddie Royal -28
43 Carolina Panthers QB Joe Flacco SS Marcellous Johnson 25
44 Chicago Bears OT Duane Brown RB Matt Forte 18
45 Detroit Lions DE Calais Campbell LB Jordon Dizon -5
46 Cincinnati Bengals OLB Xavier Adibi WR Jerome Simpson -72
47 Minnesota Vikings OT Anthony Collins DT Trevor Laws -65
48 Atlanta Falcons CB Reggie Smith TE Fred Davis -27
49 Philadelphia Eagles WR James Hardy WR/RS DeSean Jackson 8
50 Arizona Cardinals ILB Curtis Lofton DE Calais Campbell 13
51 Washington Redskins DT Trevor Laws WR Malcolm Kelly 4
52 Tampa Bay Buccaneers CB Tracy Porter DE Quentin Groves 11
53 Pittsburgh Steelers OLB Cliff Avril WR Limas Sweed -39
54 Tennessee Titans OG Chilo Rachal DE Jason Jones 15
55 Seattle Seahawks TE Fred Davis RB Ray Rice 7
56 Green Bay Packers RB Chris Johnson QB Brian Brohm 32
57 Miami Dolphins SS Marcellous Johnson QB Chad Henne 13
58 Jacksonville Jaguars CB Patrick Lee WR Dexter Jackson -2
59 Indianapolis Colts OG Roy Schuening C Mike Pollak -98
60 Green Bay Packers TE Dustin Keller CB Patrick Lee 30
61 Dallas Cowboys WR Eddie Royal TE Martellus Bennett 19
62 New England Patriots CB Charles Godfrey CB Terrence Wheatley -5
63 New York Giants DE Jason Jones CB Terrell Thomas 9

Some random thoughts:

We did pretty well for ourselves, I think, with the first 9 picks, especially given the lag between those picks and the actual draft.

Big props to thatswhatshesaid (#9, Keith Rivers), MAWK (#11, Leodis McKelvin), jimme (#16, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and primetime (#22, Felix Jones) for being the only 4 posters to hit their picks right on the money. (although, I think that everyone had Felix Jones going to Dallas :)

A lot of reaches in the 1st round for WRs. Perhaps your senses were overcome by the instant impact and undeniable charisma of our very own D-Bowe Show?

Biggest reach would appear to be Carl Nicks at the top of the 2nd. Chris Johnson, Dustin Keller, and Joe Flacco all went way too low.

Jordy Nelson: This pick seemed to cause a ton of hand-wringing in our mock. Cries of "Homer!" and "REAAAACH!" were flung about, but it turns out this selection was pretty much on spot (one higher than where he actually went). Personally, I'm glad we didn't go WR at this pick, but the reaction here on AP was certainly overblown. Now, Martin Rucker, on the other hand, was a reach of Homeric proportions. Apparently, it's all or nothing for MAWK.

What do you guys think?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.