From the FanPosts. Thanks to Stag for putting this together. -Primetime
It recently occurred to me that we had no real follow-up posts to the (in my opinion) fantastically successful 1st annual Arrowhead Pride Community Mock Draft. In that vein, I've compiled a list of the predictions proffered by the astute readers/posters of AP against the actual results of the 2008 NFL Draft.
In the table below, we have the pick #, the original team assigned to pick in that spot (figuring out all the draft day trades and including them seemed too big a headache), the AP prediction, the actual player picked at that #, and the difference between the number of the prediction vs. where the player was actually taken. For example, the "reach factor" for Matt Ryan is -2, since our mock had him going #1, but he actually went #3. (basically, plus is good, minus is bad)
| Pick | Original team | AP selection | Actual selection | Reach factor |
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | QB Matt Ryan | OT Jake Long | -2 |
| 2 | St. Louis Rams | OT Jake Long | DE Chris Long | 1 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | DT Glenn Dorsey | QB Matt Ryan | -2 |
| 4 | Oakland Raiders | DE Chris Long | RB Darren McFadden | 2 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | DT Sedrick Ellis | DT Glenn Dorsey | -2 |
| 6 | New York Jets | RB Darren McFadden | DL Vernon Gholston | 2 |
| 7 | New England Patriots | DL Vernon Gholston | DT Sedrick Ellis | 1 |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | OT Ryan Clady | DE Derrick Harvey | -4 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | OLB Keith Rivers | OLB Keith Rivers | 0 |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | CB Mike Jenkins | LB Jerod Mayo | -15 |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | CB Leodis McKelvin | CB Leodis McKelvin | 0 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | OT Chris Williams | OT Ryan Clady | -2 |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | DE Derrick Harvey | RB Jonathan Stewart | 5 |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | RB Rashard Mendenhall | OT Chris Williams | -9 |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | OT Jeff Otah | OG Branden Albert | -4 |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | 0 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | DE Philip Merling | OL Gosder Cherilus | -15 |
| 18 | Houston Texans | OG Branden Albert | QB Joe Flacco | 3 |
| 19 | Philadelphia Eagles | FS Kenny Phillips | OT Jeff Otah | -12 |
| 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | WR/RS DeSean Jackson | CB Aqib Talib | -29 |
| 21 | Washington Redskins | WR Limas Sweed | OT Sam Baker | -32 |
| 22 | Dallas Cowboys | RB Felix Jones | RB Felix Jones | 0 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | OL Gosder Cherilus | RB Rashard Mendenhall | 6 |
| 24 | Tennessee Titans | WR Devin Thomas | RB Chris Johnson | -10 |
| 25 | Seattle Seahawks | WR Malcolm Kelly | CB Mike Jenkins | -26 |
| 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars | DE Lawrence Jackson | OT Duane Brown | -2 |
| 27 | San Diego Chargers | RB Jonathan Stewart | CB Antoine Cason | 14 |
| 28 | Dallas Cowboys | CB Aqib Talib | DE Lawrence Jackson | 8 |
| 29 | San Francisco 49ers | WR Mario Manningham | DT Kentwan Balmer | -53 |
| 30 | Green Bay Packers | CB Brandon Flowers | TE Dustin Keller | -5 |
| 31 | New York Giants | LB Jerod Mayo | FS Kenny Phillips | 21 |
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | OT Carl Nicks | DE Philip Merling | -132 |
| 33 | St. Louis Rams | CB Antoine Cason | WR Donnie Avery | 6 |
| 34 | Atlanta Falcons | QB Brian Brohm | WR Devin Thomas | -22 |
| 35 | Kansas City Chiefs | WR Jordy Nelson | CB Brandon Flowers | -1 |
| 36 | New York Jets | DE Quentin Groves | WR Jordy Nelson | -16 |
| 37 | Atlanta Falcons | OT Sam Baker | ILB Curtis Lofton | 16 |
| 38 | Baltimore Ravens | CB Justin King | TE John Carlson | -63 |
| 39 | Cincinnati Bengals | DT Kentwan Balmer | OG Chilo Rachal | 10 |
| 40 | New Orleans Saints | LB Dan Connor | CB Tracy Porter | -34 |
| 41 | Buffalo Bills | TE Martin Rucker | WR James Hardy | -70 |
| 42 | Denver Broncos | WR Earl Bennett | WR Eddie Royal | -28 |
| 43 | Carolina Panthers | QB Joe Flacco | SS Marcellous Johnson | 25 |
| 44 | Chicago Bears | OT Duane Brown | RB Matt Forte | 18 |
| 45 | Detroit Lions | DE Calais Campbell | LB Jordon Dizon | -5 |
| 46 | Cincinnati Bengals | OLB Xavier Adibi | WR Jerome Simpson | -72 |
| 47 | Minnesota Vikings | OT Anthony Collins | DT Trevor Laws | -65 |
| 48 | Atlanta Falcons | CB Reggie Smith | TE Fred Davis | -27 |
| 49 | Philadelphia Eagles | WR James Hardy | WR/RS DeSean Jackson | 8 |
| 50 | Arizona Cardinals | ILB Curtis Lofton | DE Calais Campbell | 13 |
| 51 | Washington Redskins | DT Trevor Laws | WR Malcolm Kelly | 4 |
| 52 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | CB Tracy Porter | DE Quentin Groves | 11 |
| 53 | Pittsburgh Steelers | OLB Cliff Avril | WR Limas Sweed | -39 |
| 54 | Tennessee Titans | OG Chilo Rachal | DE Jason Jones | 15 |
| 55 | Seattle Seahawks | TE Fred Davis | RB Ray Rice | 7 |
| 56 | Green Bay Packers | RB Chris Johnson | QB Brian Brohm | 32 |
| 57 | Miami Dolphins | SS Marcellous Johnson | QB Chad Henne | 13 |
| 58 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CB Patrick Lee | WR Dexter Jackson | -2 |
| 59 | Indianapolis Colts | OG Roy Schuening | C Mike Pollak | -98 |
| 60 | Green Bay Packers | TE Dustin Keller | CB Patrick Lee | 30 |
| 61 | Dallas Cowboys | WR Eddie Royal | TE Martellus Bennett | 19 |
| 62 | New England Patriots | CB Charles Godfrey | CB Terrence Wheatley | -5 |
| 63 | New York Giants | DE Jason Jones | CB Terrell Thomas | 9 |
Some random thoughts:
We did pretty well for ourselves, I think, with the first 9 picks, especially given the lag between those picks and the actual draft.
Big props to thatswhatshesaid (#9, Keith Rivers), MAWK (#11, Leodis McKelvin), jimme (#16, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and primetime (#22, Felix Jones) for being the only 4 posters to hit their picks right on the money. (although, I think that everyone had Felix Jones going to Dallas :)
A lot of reaches in the 1st round for WRs. Perhaps your senses were overcome by the instant impact and undeniable charisma of our very own D-Bowe Show?
Biggest reach would appear to be Carl Nicks at the top of the 2nd. Chris Johnson, Dustin Keller, and Joe Flacco all went way too low.
Jordy Nelson: This pick seemed to cause a ton of hand-wringing in our mock. Cries of "Homer!" and "REAAAACH!" were flung about, but it turns out this selection was pretty much on spot (one higher than where he actually went). Personally, I'm glad we didn't go WR at this pick, but the reaction here on AP was certainly overblown. Now, Martin Rucker, on the other hand, was a reach of Homeric proportions. Apparently, it's all or nothing for MAWK.
What do you guys think?
