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The Kansas City Chiefs Current Draft Spot

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UPDATE Monday PM: The coin flip process is confirmed by

Atlanta, Kansas City, and Oakland had the same strength-of-schedule. Since Kansas City finished third in the AFC West and the Raiders fourth (the tie was broken on the basis of the Chiefs’ 3-11 record in common games while the Raiders were 2-12), the Raiders will draft ahead of the Chiefs. Atlanta and Oakland will flip a coin for the third position; if Atlanta wins, the Falcons will draft third, the Raiders fourth, and the Chiefs fifth. If the Raiders win the coin flip, they will draft third, and the Falcons and Chiefs will flip a coin to determine the fourth and fifth positions.

Now everyone can stop speculating (or you never did speculate if you came here). The coin flips are traditionally done at the NFL combine at the end of February.

Where will the Chiefs draft in 2008 you ask? Here's the current scenario, with tiebreakers to come.

1. Miami (1-15)
2. St. Louis (3-13)
3T. Atlanta (4-12)
3T. Kansas City (4-12)
3T. Oakland (4-12)
6. New York Jets (4-12)
7. New England (from San Francisco) (5-11)
8. Baltimore (5-11)

The Chiefs are currently tied for the third draft pick, with the final result dependent on one or two coin flips. Major props to cdcox from Chiefs Planet for the following breakdown. Its the first place I saw it.

Oakland must pick before us because they win the division tiebreaker (an 11 step procedure) based on KC having a stronger record against common opponents. Therefore KC cannot pick before Oakland.

Now who should pick first between Oakland and Atlanta. Here the tiebreaker is a coin flip since Atlanta and Oakland are not in the same conference or the same division.

If Atlanta wins the coin flip they will pick 3rd. Oakland will pick 4th because the have to pick before KC. And we will pick 5th.

If Oakland wins the coin flip agains Atlanta, they will pick 3rd. Who picks 4th and 5th? Again we would need a coin flip between KC and Atlanta to determine this.

In other words, we will pick either 4th or 5th. Check back in this post for updates today.

Note: Here is the official wording on why the Raiders will automatically pick before us:

Draft positions are determined by record, the team with the worst record during the regular season picks first and so on. If two teams have the same record, the strength of schedule tie-breaker is used which is the combined winning percentage of all teams on each team's schedule for the current season. If teams are still tied after strength of schedule has been applied, the division or conference tie breakers are used. If teams are still tied after applying all tiebreakers or if two teams are tied that are in different conferences, a coin toss after the season will determined which team gets priority.
Here is the description of the division tie-breaker:
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
The Chiefs and Raiders both have the same divisional record and are 1-1 head to head this season. That brings us to common games. The Chiefs win that by virtue of beating Minnesota earlier this season, who the Raiders lost to in Week 11. Other than that, the Chiefs and Raiders both lost to each of their common opponents.

Therefore, we cannot pick before the Raiders and since the Raiders and Falcons are in different conferences, a coin flip will determine who gets what spot ahead of the Chiefs. Then, like cdcox said, if the Raiders win the flip with the Falcons, the Chiefs and Falcons will have to flip because they're not in the same conference.

Make sense? What my previous breakdown of the draft order didn't really take into account was the strength of schedule of each team changing so much. That's why it's not exactly falling into line with what's actually happening.