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The Great Debate II: The SEC Championship Game
Another big game, another debate. In this one, Year 2 returns to make the case for Florida, as Todd from Roll Bama Roll represents the Crimson Tide. The Team Speed Kills preview will appear this afternoon.
Florida opened the week as a 9.5- to 10-point favorite, according to Vegas. Are you surprised, and is that too high?
Roll Bama Roll: The only thing I'm surprised about is that they aren't a bigger favorite, really, what with all the (mostly warranted, sadly) hype that the Florida offense gets.
Year 2: Honestly, I am a little surprised. The Vegas Poll has Florida at No. 1 and Alabama at No. 5, and a ten-point spread between those two spots in a poll seems a bit excessive. At the same time, if Florida is really the better team, then they have a chance to run away with the game and cover that spread. This is why I don't bet on football.
Looking at the two team's injury reports, are you more worried about your team or less worried about the opponent? What, if any weaknesses, do those injuries expose?
Year 2: I am worried about Florida's defensive line injuries more than anything. Florida has no seniors on defense, which means the depth chart gets really young, really fast. With two interior linemen down, it hurts the ability of the line to rotate guys in and out throughout the game. With as good as Alabama's offensive line is, the healthy guys will need to stay as fresh as possible to keep battling.
Florida's modus operandi on defense has been similar to what it was in 2006. They don't force as many three-and-outs as you'd like, but when the other team starts threatening, they lock the opponent down and force a field goal attempt or turnover.
I'm not sure that the Gators can get away with that against the Tide's strong rushing attack. On the plus side, the secondary as a unit is better than it was in 2006, even if it lacks the singular talent of a Reggie Nelson. On top of that, no less than five linebackers have played at a starter's level at varying times, so the back seven may be able to make up for it.

Not to mention the secondary's improvement since last season.
Roll Bama Roll: One of the big keys to Alabama's success so far this year is that we've been incredibly fortunate with injuries. Just off the top of my head, I think we've lost maybe five starts to injury so far this year (Andre Smith and Marlon Davis missed a start each, Cody missed two, and Mike McCoy missed one), and the only injury issues we have at the moment are with reserve guys like Will Oakley (WR that really only saw time as a run blocker, out for the season with a broken collar bone), Roy Upchurch (great RB and the hero of the Tennessee game, but still the third back in the rotation, questionable with neck spasms but carried twice in the Iron Bowl and could probably go if needed), and Earl Alexander (another WR that really hasn't seen a lot of time, questionable with a banged up shoulder but could probably go if needed).
I am, however, concerned with any injuries that could happen during the game. LSU ran all over us with Cody not quite back to 100 percent, and with Smith and Davis out on the O-line against Tulane we had our worst showing of the season as far as blocking goes. We're still a very thin and young team, so ANY injury to a starter (and, in a lot of cases on defense where we rotate a ton of players, to key backups) is going to foul up the works enough that it could put Bama at a serious disadvantage right away.
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Mr. Tuberville, Line 1: It's Mr. Pine Box
It's time to start using FlightAware to track Bobby Lowder's jet. (And while he's looking for a head coach, Auburn's athletics Web site could use a new photo editor.)

It's all about setting a tone...
Yes, Tommy Tuberville is gone, and while it's not the most stunning news of the season, it's still fairly surprising. After all, Tuberville was 85-40 at Auburn, good for a .680 winning percentage, a "People's Choice" national championship, an SEC title and two division crowns.
But in the ultracompetitive SEC, those accomplishes don't buy you as much time as they once did. They just give fans enough hope that the expectations will crush you in the end.
Then again, Auburn officials might have good reason to be concerned. This season was not a repeat of 2003 for two key reasons, one obvious: In 2003, Tuberville had a winning record (8-5, 5-3 SEC). The other reason is the trend line, which took a decided turn in the wrong direction this year.
Now, any good statistician will tell you that two is not a trend. But Auburn tends to bounce back from Tuberville's less successful seasons. By that pattern, this year should have been an upturn, or at least (given the program's recent success) a plateau. Instead, the winning percentage continued its march downward.
There's no need, really, to relive the Tony Franklin debacle, or whether the former offensive coordinator's purported "assistants" -- who had been there longer than he had -- actively undermined Franklin in an effort to have him ousted. If so, though, it likely ended up costing Tuberville his job: the Auburn offense went from horrible to abysmal after Franklin left.
Who's next? Well, the usual suspects. Including -- yep -- him.
A source with knowledge of Auburn’s thinking said the university had already reached out to Texas Tech Coach Mike Leach through the search firm of Bill Carr, who runs many high-profile coaching searches.
Other possible candidates include Texas Christian’s Gary Patterson, Tulsa’s Todd Graham, Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe, Air Force’s Troy Calhoun, Connecticut’s Randy Edsall and Arkansas’s Bobby Petrino.
The Birmingham News reported that Auburn reached out to Petrino, who has a noncompete clause in his contract that forbids him from going to another school in the SEC West. [EMPHASIS ADDED]
A keen college football mind knows that contracts are no match for the resourcefulness of Bobby Petrino. Actually, unless Petrino has a phenomenal agent, Arkansas might have him locked in for a few years -- or, at least, locked out of Auburn.
Of the other candidates, I'd have to say Leach and Graham probably fit the mold that Auburn fans are looking for: A good (or at least clever) offensive mind. This is just the way things go at most schools. You fire a guy, you go find someone who can fix the problems. In this case, the problem at Auburn is the offense. Or, more accurately, the complete lack of an offense.
Then again, Terry Bowden's always available ...
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The final SEC Power Poll of the regular season is up at Garnet and Black Attack. And look for the SEC Power Poll All-SEC Team, coming soon.
1 day ago
cocknfire
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SEC Power Poll, Final Regular Season Results
1. Florida, 197 points (10 first-place votes)
2. Alabama, 194 (7)
3. Mississippi, 167
4. Georgia, 154
5. South Carolina, 125
6. LSU, 118.5
7. Vanderbilt, 93
8. Tennessee, 79
9. Arkansas, 70
10. Kentucky, 67.5
11. Auburn, 42
12. Mississippi State, 19
First of all, congratulations to Mississippi State, which has clinced the "Worst of the Best" Cup barring a truly awful bowl game by someone ahead of them. But some of our pollsters think that the "Best" part of that might be, eh, a bit overrated ...
So I won't be the first person to make this joke (and it's unlikely I'll be the last), but all of a sudden the notion of an SEC "Power" Poll seems a bit like a misnomer. The JCCW's nominees for the new name of the poll are as follows:
--SEC Widespread Ineffectiveness Poll
--SEC "Old Man Strength" Poll
--SEC FAIL Poll
--SEC Diet Power Poll (tastes like regular Power, but with half the win!)
--SEC Bedridden Atrophy Poll
--ACC Power Poll

Somehow, it just doesn't work.
Let's be honest, now. This year, "S.E.C. Power Poll" is a bit of a misnomer. "S.E.C. Weakness Poll" would be more like it, complete with a countdown from worst to first, from "weakest" to "least weak team of the week."--Dawg Sports
Oh well. In any case, just three points separate Florida from Alabama -- thought that will likely change as soon as one of them wins Saturday. We'll have to wait until after the bowls to see. Mississippi moves to No. 3, dethroning Georgia, which ends up at No. 4 after getting defeated by Georgia Tech.
A strong finish puts Tennessee up to No. 8, and Arkansas goes to No. 9 (from last place just last week) after defeating LSU. This puts Kentucky at No. 10. Too bad Norfolk State isn't in the power poll. And Auburn officials were so outraged at the Tigers' No. 11 finish that they fired "resigned" the coach.
Maybe the poll has some power after all.
(EDITOR'S NOTE: Per the suggestion of Red Solo Cup, the inaugural SEC Power Poll All-SEC Team is coming soon. Stay tuned.)
Voters, explain this. But, first, jump.
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This is a great point that I'm not sure I would have considered otherwise, and that most people are overlooking in their rush to deem Alabama-Florida the winner-take-all primer for the mythical championship. That's certainly true for Alabama if it finishes 13-0, and I assume it's true for Florida in the human polls if the Gators take the mighty SEC at 12-1. But the computers? That's not so certain.
1 day ago
cocknfire
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Real Life Intervenes
In case you haven't heard, the people of Georgia have yet to choose a U.S. Senator. As their decision is of some interest to those of us in the press, there will be no posting Tuesday afternoon/evening. Things will resume Wednesday evening, which is also when the final regular season SEC Power Poll will go up at Garnet and Black Attack.
So, we'll give you an open thread of sorts. How did Team Speed Kills' first half a season go? What did you like? How could the site improve? (And if your answer is "More conversations between Joe Kines and Ed Oregeron" -- we're working on it, we're working on it.)
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SEC Power Poll Ballot, Week 14
1. Florida
I think the initially line for the SEC Championship is at 117.5 right now. Which is stupid, but what are you going to do?
2. Alabama
Hooray! A blowout! Too bad it came against perhaps the worst offense in modern history.
3. Mississippi
These guys are playing as well as any team in the conference not named Florida or Alabama. Houston Nutt's done an incredible job.
4. Georgia
Wow. From national championship contender to Capital One Bowl contestant. Yeesh.
5. South Carolina
A good team on its good days, a below-average team on its worst days, an average team on its average days. Pretty much like everyone else except the Top 4.
6. LSU
Les Miles will not be eating any taffy for a while.
7. Arkansas
The Hogs could surprise some folks in 2009.
8. Kentucky
This might be the worst 6-6 team in the history of the SEC. Oh, wait a minute. Vanderbilt's also 6-6.
9. Vanderbilt
This is the worst 6-6 team in the history of the SEC.
10. Tennessee
A nice emotional boost for the Vols can't hide the fact that they've had an abysmal season.
11. Auburn
Just fire everyone. Including the players.
12. Mississippi State
Consider this: The Bulldogs went from losing 45-0 to LSU last year to losing 45-0 to Mississippi this year.
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FIVE POINTS: Ugh -- The Team from the Upstate wins (again)

1. Everybody calm down. That includes me. One of the reason's I've waited until now (Monday evening) to post my thoughts is because any earlier attempts would have come out RARR!!!RARRRR!!!SMELLEY BAD!!!!RARR!!!! Take a step back. Think about this for a minute. Last year, we were all pissed about an 0-5 finish that put the Gamecocks at 6-6 and out of a bowl game after an unforgivable defensive collapse against The Team from the Upstate. This year, South Carolina finished 7-5, bound for a better bowl than the Gamecocks probably deserve (almost certainly the Outback, but maybe the Peach) and with some returning talent, even if we lose Jared Cook in addition to Kenny McKinley. (And I hate to say this, but keep an eye on Eric Norwood.) I'll have a lot more on a later date, but just to put things in perspective: This is the first time South Carolina has had four non-losing seasons since it entered the SEC. The last time was 1987-1990, when Joe Morrison and Sparky Woods went 8-4, 8-4, 6-4-1 and 6-5 as an independent. This has been a pretty good stretch by South Carolina standards.
2. Chris Smelley must never again start for South Carolina. It's that simple. This was "Bad Chris" at his worst, and comparing his performance to Blake Mitchell is an insult to Blake Mitchell. (And I say that as one of Blake's most consistent critics.) A fumbled quarterback sneak, overthrowing leaping receivers by two or three feet, almost getting intercepted when he tried to throw the ball away -- it was awful. Four interceptions and a 46.8 percent completion rate do not begin to tell of the horror that was watching Chris Smelley play quarterback. Brandon Cox would have been a marked improvement. Smelley's had some good games, but he also has a tendency to disappear or regress at the worst possible times: against Vanderbilt last year, against Kentucky this year and, then, this past weekend. Smelley's show against Ole Miss was just one of those illusions -- redshirt sophomores don't usually get better overnight. It's time to let it go and go with Stephen Garcia. (An aside: If "Tommy [Beecher] doesn't want to play," then his scholarship should be revoked. I'm not being mean about this. If you get an academic scholarship and you don't bother to show up to class, you fail and you lose your scholarship. Why should athletes be any different?)
3. Third down defense. All the nice things I've said about Ellis Johnson and the Gamecocks defense, and they follow up the 56-point waxing in the Swamp with a "performance" that included The Team from the Upstate converting eight of 14 third-down opportunities. In all, the Tigers gained 64 yards on third down, or about 4.6 yards per play. Worse yet, 56 of those third-down yards came in the second half -- when South Carolina most needed a stop to preserve clock and get the ball back. You can't blame the entire defensive effort for this game -- when your quarterback gets picked off four times, there's not much the defense can do to win it. But a few third-down stops might have changed momentum and the final score.
4. This is Spurrier. If there was a major criticism of Steve Spurrier's time in Gainesville, it's that he didn't do well against Florida State. Including bowl games, Spurrier went 5-8-1 against the Seminoles. Spurrier didn't make his name beating ACC rivals to make the fans happy; he made his name beating Georgia and Tennessee and winning SEC championships and a national title. True, those options weren't available to him, and the Team from the Upstate was the team South Carolina faced this weekend. But get used to the fact that beating the Tigers is not Spurrier's first goal, nor his second and probably not even his third. Personally, I want him focusing more on the SEC. That's not sour grapes; I hate losing to The Team from the Upstate. I'd still trade it any day for an SEC championship.
5. How would you like to have the Vanderbilt game back? Or the Georgia game? A special-teams blocker in a different place, a smarter play by Mike Davis ... But, no. We have to get past moral victories, get past a "this was an improvement," get past seeing the glass half-full when it's 60 percent empty. The Spurrier Era, in my mind, has been good for South Carolina, but not yet successful. This should have been an eight-win, maybe a nine-win, perhaps even a ten-win season. Again, don't misinterpret: This is a 7-5 team. You are whatever your record says you are. And until South Carolina starts winning more than seven games a year, it will always be a good team -- but a team that's just not good enough.
GRADE: F
Sorry, there's nothing to redeem this game, and all the time in the world can't change that. It was an all-around collapse.
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BlogPoll Ballot: And the top Big XII team is ...
Oklahoma.
By the very, very thinnest of margins, Oklahoma has done slightly better than Texas this year. And, of course, I have charts.
First, the schedule chart. I've changed my mind about having FCS teams in there, because putting them as the worst win actually hurts a team more than leaving them out altogether.
Of course, if you wanted to be more concise, you could wrap it up like this:
Oklahoma has outscored opponents by about three points more per game against a schedule that's about equally strong. And now, Texas and Oklahoma against common opponents that were not each other.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech were clearly better wins for Oklahoma, Kansas was better for Texas, and they both defeated Bayor and Texas A&M by too many to give one a clear advantage.
All that swung the vote ever so slightly to Oklahoma. Even at this point, I'm not sure that's who should be No. 3, so I'm open to any comments you have about this.
Despite all of that, I still think Texas and not Oklahoma should play in the Big XII Championship Game. A lot of what helps Oklahoma in those first two charts are nonconference games. While Oklahoma had the better year overall, Texas probably had the better year in the Big XII and might be the better team. (Remember, I'm a resume voter, not a power poll voter, when it comes to the BlogPoll.)
In any case, I'm not voting for Big XII Champion. I'm voting for which 25 teams had the best seasons. One would hope that's what the USA Today and Harris poll voters are doing. If so, it's ridiculous and wrong to use that to determine who should play in the league's championship game. And the conference should be ashamed of itself for letting that happen.
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | -- |
| 2 | Alabama | -- |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 4 | Texas | 1 |
| 5 | Penn State | -- |
| 6 | Southern Cal | -- |
| 7 | Utah | -- |
| 8 | Texas Tech | -- |
| 9 | Ohio State | -- |
| 10 | Boise State | -- |
| 11 | Oklahoma State | -- |
| 12 | TCU | 14 |
| 13 | Missouri | 1 |
| 14 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 15 | Georgia Tech | 3 |
| 16 | Georgia | 3 |
| 17 | Mississippi | 6 |
| 18 | Ball State | 1 |
| 19 | Boston College | 1 |
| 20 | Florida State | 4 |
| 21 | Pittsburgh | 5 |
| 22 | Iowa | 1 |
| 23 | Oregon State | 9 |
| 24 | Oregon | 2 |
| 25 | Michigan State | 1 |
Dropped Out: West Virginia (#19), Miami (Florida) (#22), Northwestern (#25).
TCU moved that high because I have some reason to hate almost everyone else on the ballot. Missouri is a question mark: It wasn't a "bad" loss and it didn't come against a "bad" team, so maybe moving them down one isn't too little punishment, even though it seems to be that way. Oklahoma State lost by about what one would expect them to. If you want me to move them, suggest a replacement. Everything else is pretty much self-explanatory. Yes, I did keep Oregon State ahead of Oregon, and the reasons are: Southern Cal and Cal, which are two good wins that Oregon State has and Oregon doesn't. Northwestern moves off the ballot because TCU, Pittsburgh and Oregon had to go somewhere.
Same question as always: Where am I wrong?
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So Much for Conference Supremacy: ACC rolls and other Week 14 action

Not exactly what we had in mind.
If the title of this post has a familiar ring to it, that's intentional. Back in mid-October, after Florida blew LSU out of the water in a 51-21 shellacking, the weekly wrap-up was titled "So Much for Western Supremacy."
As damaging as LSU's loss was to the notion that the SEC West was the stronger half of the league, Saturday's triple defeat at the hands of the ACC was an even worse setback for the idea that the SEC is the best conference in the land. Just moments after South Carolina fell 31-14 to Clemson, Georgia ended a 45-42 loss at the hands of Georgia Tech. Wake Forest's 23-10 victory over Vanderbilt hours later clinched a losing record for the SEC against its neighboring BCS league, a conference that national and local pundits alike had mocked for weeks.
Is the ACC better than the SEC? Probably not. Given the up-again, down-again pattern followed by most of ACC's teams, all three of those games could end differently if the games were played again this week. And the weekend was not the kind of head-to-head match-up that would have seen the top-rated ACC team take on the top-rated SEC team and on down the line.
But the games will not be played this week, and no such SEC-ACC tournament is scheduled. The best conference in America does not go 4-6 against the ACC in a season, nor does it go 1-3 in a weekend. You'll have to look for someone else.
Florida, in the meantime, was Florida. They amassed 502 yards to Florida State's 242, ran the ball 46 for 317 yards (6.9 ypc) and, as usual, had scored enough points by late in the first half (21 at the 5:33 mark) to win the game. The final margin -- 45-15 -- was proof that the Gators are playing on a different plane than anyone else in the SEC, save Alabama.
Not that everything came out the way the Gators had hoped: Percy Harvin is questionable for the SEC Championship Game. Though, as Nick Saban points out, that's not exactly a reason for Alabama to hold a parade.
"They really have three players. ... No. 1 (Harvin), No. 2 (Jeff Demps) and No. 3 (Chris Rainey). It's easy to remember. They're all outstanding players with big-play ability. They also have outstanding receivers and a Heisman-winning quarterback (Tim Tebow). They utilize all those players in different roles."Certainly, we respect Percy Harvin as a great player. But they have some other great players, too."
Alabama, for its part, dismantled Auburn 36-0 on Saturday, gaining 412 yards to Auburn's 170, earning 21 first downs to the Tiger's eight and finishing off Auburn's talk of various thumbs and fingers. The most suprising statistics in the game: Mario Fannin's longest rush was for eight yards, as was Brad Lester's. Ben Tate's long run was for three yards. A 13-yard run by Kodi Burns would be the longest run of the day.
There's not much more to explain from this weekend. For the time, at least, the SEC is a two-team league. Those teams will meet Saturday, in the game everyone has anticipated now for weeks. Everything else is detail.
OTHER WEEKEND RECAPS AT TSK:
And Phil Fades Away -- Tennessee 28, Kentucky 10
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