Quick programming note--I'm thinking the OU-MU BTBS preview won't be up until tomorrow...

MAILBAG!!!

mizzouman99 asks: It's obvious that Matt Eberflus isn't going anywhere this off-season. With the recent struggles of the defense this season you have to think this coaching staff has to point to the scheme we are using as one of the key problems.

What do you think the chances are that Coach Pinkel calls for wholesale changes to the defensive scheme in the off-season, similar to the way we changed to the spread offense in 2005? Do you think there is a scheme that would help the effectiveness of our blitzing that they might consider due to the athleticism we have coming in the underclassmen?

I don't know if you'll see wholesale changes, but there have to be adjustments certainly. We've talked about the defense ad nauseum and the bottom line was it didn't play up to its potential. How much of that is the fault of the players and how much the scheme and the coaching? I don't know the answer to that, but I think it's priority number one in the off-season to figure it out.

Again, Eberflus = Pinkel.  Eberflus is only executing the Pinkel philosophy.  He's not going anywhere, nor does he need to.  They tinker with the on offense and defense very year.  Sometimes the adjustments work, sometimes they don't.  The defensive adjustments they made this season (discussed at least somewhat in yesterday's roundtable) didn't work, though again--this is still an average to above average defense in a ridiculously offense-oriented conference.

I may change my mind about this later, but if we end up playing a Northwestern or somebody like that in the Alamo Bowl, I have the feeling we'll be blown away by how athletic and fast our defense looks after getting used to seeing some of the Big 12 offenses we played against this year.

(BIIIIIIIIIG TWWWWELLLLLLVE SPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED.)

Still annoyed by the coaches' All-Big 12 team?  The AP team is out soon (ballots were due Sunday)--here's Dave Matter's ballot.  And yes, I'd have linked to this even if he'd picked Gresham over Coffman...

Today's OU Links!

• Dave Matter: Behind the Numbers
• The Missourian: Eyes in Texas will be upon Missouri (as exemplified by the number of UT applications for the Mizzou Fan Visa)
• The Missourian: Tiger defense examines struggles
• Post-Dispatch: Daniel sees mistake-free performance against Oklahoma (here's to hoping...)
• Post-Dispatch: Sam Bradford a special QB for Oklahoma
• PowerMizzou: Tiger offense will have to start fast
• PowerMizzou: Attacking the OU D
• PowerMizzou: Powered Up: Anatomy of an Upset
• Tulsa World: Missouri's Maclin displays excellence (what a weird headline--I looked at it and saw "Missouri's Maclin pisses excellence" at first)
• Tulsa World: Sooners' BCS lead over UT isn't safe
• Daily Oklahoman: OU has Chase Daniel's number
• Daily Oklahoman: OU's DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown are chasing after Big 12 history

Toledo has made its choice, and it is indeed a Big 12 defensive coordinator.  It's Tim Beckman, whose absence I'm thinking could make a huge difference at OSU.  I was tremendously impressed with Beckman's performance this year.

Finally...man, do I love rumors.  After Broderick Green listed Mizzou as a possible transferring-from-USC destination a while back, now apparently Vidal Hazelton has as well. Hazelton has just one catch since USC's season opener against Virginia (he's been nagged by injuries)--he had 50 catches for 540 yards and 4 TDs last year.

Hazelton initially went to high school in Staten Island, and Rutgers is the closest school to Staten Island on his list (MU, Rutgers, Tech), so you have to figure they're the safest bet, but...you know...I'd still take my chances if he wanted to come here.

My favorite moment from last night's game: getting to relive (in my head) the classic moment from MU-UAPB '98, where John Woods was inbounding the ball, turned to press row and said "These guys are terrible!"  Good times.

Mizzou 95, UA-Pine Bluff 41

• The one qualm: rebounding.  UAPB should not have gotten 17 offensive rebounds.  Meanwhile, Mizzou actually got fewer offensive rebounds than expected, which is a bit befuddling, even though we were obviously getting the young guys a lot of minutes.
• That said...that's all the complaining that can be done.  UAPB shot under 30% and had an 8-28 Assist-turnover ratio.  There are easy wins, and there are easy wins.
• The per-possession efficiency for Mizzou actually was not as great this game as it was against ORU.  Whereas the ORU game was won with offense, this one was clearly won with defense.

Continue reading this post »

1 - Question about coaching philosophy: Gary Pinkel and his staff have made clear over the years that their defensive philosophy is what it is, and they're going to basically blitz on every third (and fourth) down.  If they don't blitz on 4th-and-7 with 0:30 left, Todd Reesing almost certainly completes an easy 8-yard out for a first down--he was in too much of a zone not to.  If they do blitz, they either get to him and win the game, or they don't get to him and he passes to whoever Justin Garrett is attempting to cover for a TD (giving Mizzou enough time to maybe get into FG range). 

One problem: the blitz has sucked all year.  Knowing that apparently you don't have the personnel to blitz successfully, but knowing that calling a blitz is the right call philosophically...what do you do?  Stick with your philosophy and hope it finally pays off, or try something different on the biggest play of the game?

2 - How much did you drink Saturday night?

3 - What % chance does Mizzou have of beating OU this weekend?

4 - Who has bigger juevos huevos: Chase Coffman or Chuck Norris?

5 - Favorite thing you ate last week?

Continue reading this post »

After looking at the stats, I can decide if I'm more encouraged or more depressed by Saturday's result.  Play this game ten times, and Mizzou probably wins 7-8.  But KU's risky ball-control gameplan paid off, and kudos to them for that.

• Field Position % might have been the single most important factor in KU's win.  The times they did have to punt, they had moved the ball just enough to have a chance at pinning Missouri deep, and they succeeded in doing just that.  All four punts that left Alonso Rojas' leg ended up at the Mizzou 21 or worse (including once at the 10 and once at the 2).  Not only did they manage to punt away from Jeremy Maclin, but they also got hellacious rolls on rugby kicks.  They kept the ball on Missouri's end of the field as much as possible, and it worked out great for them.  And beyond that, two huge kickoff returns by Dezmon Briscoe allowed KU to start a couple key drives in or near Missouri field position.
  
• Leverage % might have been the second most important factor in KU's win.  Surprisingly, the game-winning TD pass aside, KU did not see a lot of success on Passing Downs.  Problem was, Mizzou couldn't leverage KU into enough passing downs.  That, and they found themselves in too many of them.
• If you'd told me KU would be held to under 2.0 line yards per carry, I'd have bet a large sum of money on a Mizzou victory.  As poorly as Mizzou's pass rush was, their run stuffing was excellent.
• The per-quarter numbers told me something I already suspected--really, Mizzou didn't lose this game by failing to stop Todd Reesing and Kerry Meier in Q4 (I mean, they did, but you know what I'm saying)--they lost by failing on offense in Q1 and on defense in Q2.  If Mizzou had managed to avoid falling behind in the first half, they could have done more with their effective running game and dictated the pace.  Instead, Mizzou was playing from behind for all but 12 plays (seven when it was tied at 0-0, five when Mizzou had a 30-26 lead), and it left them with too littlle margin for error.
• What I said last week:

  KU's 49.4% success rate running the ball opens up an avenue of ball control success for them. Their big-play potential (i.e. PPP) is pretty crappy, but they can potentially move the chains a bit.

  Mizzou easily defeated KU in terms of PPP, but KU continuously did juuuuust enough to move the chains in the first half, and again...this and their early lead allowed them to dictate how the game unfolded.

Key Players and other Big 12 summaries after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

OU Links!

• Post-Dispatch: Missouri defense is bracing for high-octane Oklahoma
• Post-Dispatch: Sooners say chip on their shoulder against Mizzou (great)
• PowerMizzou: Stopping an unstoppable offense
• PowerMizzou: Like Father, Unike Son: Title Upset?
• The Missourian: Stoops says Sooners deserve spot
• KC Star: Coffman vows to fight pain, and Sooners
• KC Star: Even Tiger moms and dads are picking OU
• Tulsa World: Sam Nation
• Daily Oklahoman: Thumbs up for Sam Bradford
• Daily Oklahoman: What regional writers think
• Dallas Morning News: Missouri defense better be on its game against Oklahoma

Sounds like nobody on the Mizzou offense is feeling betrayed by Dave Christensen's departure...

Not that we need a ton of links talking about how badly Mizzou killed hapless UA-Pine Bluff last night, but...well, there's not a ton else going on, so that's exactly what you get!

• Mutigers.com: Missouri crushes Arkansas-Pine Bluff
• The Trib: Missouri routs Arkansas-Pine Bluff
• The Missourian: Missouri dominates Arkansas-Pine Bluff
• KC Star: Missouri pounds Arkansas-Pine Bluff
• Post-Dispatch: Tigers' defense is too much (way to go, P-D, ruining the headline symmetry...)

And if you want a bit more basketball reading, check out Steve Walentik's Big 12 power poll...

Finally, in Mizzou Football Recruiting news, Rivals has a neat story about Blue Springs South DE Derrion Thomas, Derrick Thomas's son who, while a bit undersized, developed into a dominant force this year...

Mizzou Basketball at Mizzou Arena

...we can add another Winter tradition to the list: Mizzou tight ends getting screwed over by the Big 12 coaches.

That's right, the Coaches' All-Big 12 awards have been announced.

1st-Team Mizzou players

WR Jeremy Maclin
DL Ziggy Hood
LB Sean Weatherspoon
DB William Moore (unanimous)
PK Jeff Wolfert

2nd-Team Mizzou players

RB Derrick Washington
TE Chase Coffman
OL Kurtis Gregory
DL Stryker Sulak

Honorable Mention

QB Chase Daniel
WR Tommy Saunders
OL Tim Barnes
OL Colin Brown
DL Jaron Baston
LB Brock Christopher
DB Castine Bridges (?)
DB Justin Garrett (??)
KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

I realize it's hard to complain too much--a few years ago, it was amazing to see a handful of second-teamers in Mizzou uniforms, much less nine on the 1st- and 2nd-team--and I realize that Jermaine Gresham is by all means a helluva tight end, but...come on.  Not only is Chase Coffman the best tight end in the conference, he's the best tight end I've ever seen.

Then again, this tells you everything you need to know about the validity of these stupid exercises:

* Justin Garrett = honorable mention all-conference
* Carl Gettis = not

Good god, what a waste of time.  Sorry I even acknowledged this with a post.

Here's something fun: of the 10 Big 12 defenses that took the field last weekend, nine of them got smoked.  Only that of Texas (and, technically, Iowa State and K-State, who didn't play) did not.  So when you get to the defensive rankings and DON'T see that Mizzou fell in every category after Saturday's KU game, that's why.

Mizzou's defense wasn't alone--pretty much every D-lineman, LB, or DB in the Big 12 got roasted like TurBaconDucKen with a side of green bean casserole last weekend.  That doesn't make more palatable the thought of Kerry Meier torching poor Justin Garrett yet again, but I'm just throwing it out there.  Our defense was no better or worse than 90% of the league last week.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

Biggest (Good) Mover: Baylor, for almost beating Tech.

Biggest (Bad) Mover: Texas Tech.  The most interesting downward move, however, was OU dropping six points.  We'll explore where that drop came from after the jump.

Category rankings and Big 12 Title Game projection after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

I'm sorry, but I just can't respect any movie that a) stars Tom Cruise, and b) stars Tom Cruise wearing an eyepatch.  Just can't do it.

Chase Daniel: chippy.

Quarterback Chase Daniel was in an extraordinarily chippy mood during his weekly turn at the podium. When asked about Oklahoma’s defense, Daniel came prepared with some offensive statistics for several of his teammates.

“They’re a great defensive team, but you want to talk about their guys,” he said. “What about our guys? I’ve got some stats right here.”

With that Daniel rattled off several season and career numbers for six of his teammates, reading off from a piece of paper — though he could probably recite them for memory. He mentioned numbers for Chase Coffman, Jeremy Maclin, Tommy Saunders, Jared Perry, Jeff Wolfert and Derrick Washington.

“You look at their weapons. Well, I want to look at ours and what we have to bring to the table,” he said. “I feel good about our guys.”

...

A couple things at play here: Daniel’s got something for the Sooners. That’s obvious. He grew up a Texas fan, so no surprise there. But over the last three years, Daniel’s been more than willing to discuss and dissect the defensive players for every other team on MU’s schedule. Just not Oklahoma.

“We want respect, and it’s not going to be given to us,” he said. “We just have to go out and get it.”

I love the attitude, but I'm scared enough about poking the bear that...yeah...back it up, Chase, and I'll love you to pieces...the KC Star has more.

Big 12 Championship Links!

• Mutigers.com: official release

  Oklahoma has won 18 of the last 19 games in the series, dating back to 1984, and if you take it back to 1970, they’ve won 30 of the last 33 meetings between the two schools. Since 1946, the series stands in OU’s favor by a whopping 49-7-1 margin – that’s when the separation really began by the Sooners from the Tigers, as in 1945, a Mizzou 14-6 win over OU evened the series at 16-16-1 at the time.

• Soonersports.com: Sooner Scouting Report
• The Trib: Tigers vs Sooners: The Sequel
• PowerMizzou: Tigers know few have faith
• Post-Dispatch: Missouri not distracted as it focuses on OU and Big 12 Title Game
• Bryan Burwell: Missouri has a chance to defeat Oklahoma, but it is a slim one
• Tulsa World: Sooners' depth will be tested
• Daily Oklahoman: Bob Stoops addresses Sam Bradford injury, Missouri
• Daily Oklahoman: Tigers way short of expectations
• Daily Oklahoman: Thumbs up for OU quarterback Sam Bradford

Naturally, Gary Pinkel is pretty happy about Dave Christensen's promotion (they've been working together since 1980!), as are Christensen's players...

In football recruiting news, it looks like Mizzou sent out a new offer for 2010: Blaine Gabbert's younger brother, Tyler.

Mizzou Basketball links!

• KC Star: Freshman Paul fits in at Missouri
• Mutigers.com: UA-Pine Bluff official release
• Steve Walentik: Goodbye Oral Roberts, hello Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Finally, it's time to get fully into 2003 Kansas State mode...live it, love it...