The Kansas City Chiefs Current Draft Spot

by Chris on Dec 31, 2007 4:36 AM CST in 2007 Campaign Comment 10 comments

UPDATE Monday PM: The coin flip process is confirmed by NFL.com.

Atlanta, Kansas City, and Oakland had the same strength-of-schedule. Since Kansas City finished third in the AFC West and the Raiders fourth (the tie was broken on the basis of the Chiefs’ 3-11 record in common games while the Raiders were 2-12), the Raiders will draft ahead of the Chiefs. Atlanta and Oakland will flip a coin for the third position; if Atlanta wins, the Falcons will draft third, the Raiders fourth, and the Chiefs fifth. If the Raiders win the coin flip, they will draft third, and the Falcons and Chiefs will flip a coin to determine the fourth and fifth positions.

Now everyone can stop speculating (or you never did speculate if you came here). The coin flips are traditionally done at the NFL combine at the end of February.

Where will the Chiefs draft in 2008 you ask? Here's the current scenario, with tiebreakers to come.

1. Miami (1-15)
2. St. Louis (3-13)
3T. Atlanta (4-12)
3T. Kansas City (4-12)
3T. Oakland (4-12)
6. New York Jets (4-12)
7. New England (from San Francisco) (5-11)
8. Baltimore (5-11)

The Chiefs are currently tied for the third draft pick, with the final result dependent on one or two coin flips. Major props to cdcox from Chiefs Planet for the following breakdown. Its the first place I saw it.

Oakland must pick before us because they win the division tiebreaker (an 11 step procedure) based on KC having a stronger record against common opponents. Therefore KC cannot pick before Oakland.

Now who should pick first between Oakland and Atlanta. Here the tiebreaker is a coin flip since Atlanta and Oakland are not in the same conference or the same division.

If Atlanta wins the coin flip they will pick 3rd. Oakland will pick 4th because the have to pick before KC. And we will pick 5th.

If Oakland wins the coin flip agains Atlanta, they will pick 3rd. Who picks 4th and 5th? Again we would need a coin flip between KC and Atlanta to determine this.

In other words, we will pick either 4th or 5th. Check back in this post for updates today.

Note: Here is the official wording on why the Raiders will automatically pick before us:

Draft positions are determined by record, the team with the worst record during the regular season picks first and so on. If two teams have the same record, the strength of schedule tie-breaker is used which is the combined winning percentage of all teams on each team's schedule for the current season. If teams are still tied after strength of schedule has been applied, the division or conference tie breakers are used. If teams are still tied after applying all tiebreakers or if two teams are tied that are in different conferences, a coin toss after the season will determined which team gets priority.

Here is the description of the division tie-breaker:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

The Chiefs and Raiders both have the same divisional record and are 1-1 head to head this season. That brings us to common games. The Chiefs win that by virtue of beating Minnesota earlier this season, who the Raiders lost to in Week 11. Other than that, the Chiefs and Raiders both lost to each of their common opponents.

Therefore, we cannot pick before the Raiders and since the Raiders and Falcons are in different conferences, a coin flip will determine who gets what spot ahead of the Chiefs. Then, like cdcox said, if the Raiders win the flip with the Falcons, the Chiefs and Falcons will have to flip because they're not in the same conference.

Make sense? What my previous breakdown of the draft order didn't really take into account was the strength of schedule of each team changing so much. That's why it's not exactly falling into line with what's actually happening.

0 recs | Comment 10 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

We

did not even suck enough to pick ahead of the Faiders, damn!

by Eric on Dec 31, 2007 8:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Nobody

sucks that bad...

by styg50 on Dec 31, 2007 6:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So many different places

got the scenario wrong. Makes me feel good I went to bed early and posted this morning.

by Chris on Dec 31, 2007 8:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

That is

Assuming I am correct...

by Chris on Dec 31, 2007 8:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A few notes

From nfl.com: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

It seems to be up in the air which tiebreakers to use.

If you look at the following which stands under "TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING" we should pick before the raiders because we have the same division record, but they have a better conference record.

QUOTE:
"If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip."
QUOTE ends

The tiebreakers regarding the common games scenarion, which have been mentioned, are tied to determain playoff teams and has nothing to do with the draft (also in the link posted below).

qoute
"TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION (for playoffs)

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games."

QUOTE ends

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

by jimme on Dec 31, 2007 9:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs