Your Kansas City Chiefs Draft Scenarios

by Chris Thorman on Dec 28, 2007 10:46 AM CST in 2007 Campaign Comment 19 comments

Team	Record	Opp. %	Week 17 Opp.
#1 Miami Dolphins	1-14	0.533	Bengals
#2 St. Louis Rams	3-12	0.513	Cardinals
#3 New York Jets	3-12	0.525	Chiefs
#4 Atlanta Falcons	3-12	0.529	Seahawks
#5 Kansas City Chiefs	4-11	0.508	Jets
#6 Oakland Raiders	4-11	0.513	Chargers
#7 Baltimore Ravens	4-11	0.517	Steelers
#8 SF 49ers	5-10	0.467	Browns

The table above is the current draft order as of today. The draft order is determined first by W/L record. In the event of a tie, opponent's strength of schedule is used, with the lower percentage getting the higher pick. Obviously, the Dolphins have already locked up the top spot. The likelihood of the Chiefs getting each spot is from Playoff Status. (Thanks for the link MAWK!)

Note: These results are based on the strength of schedule of each team remaining relatively the same.

For the Chiefs to get the #2 overall pick (<1%)...

Rams must beat the Cardinals
Falcons must beat the Seahawks
Chiefs lose to the Jets

The remaining 4-11 teams, even if they win, won't overtake the Chiefs spot because of opp. winning percentage. The Chiefs also have the worst opp. winning percentage of the 4-11 teams, which would break any other ties.

For the Chiefs to get the #3 overall pick (7%)...

Rams OR Falcons need to win
Chiefs lose to the Jets

For the Chiefs to get the #4 overall pick (30%)...

Chiefs lose to the Jets
Rams and Falcons lose

For the Chiefs to get the #5 overall pick (15%)...

Rams and Falcons need to lose
Chiefs beat the Jets
Raiders, Ravens and 49ers need to win

For the Chiefs to get the #6 overall pick (4%)...

Rams and Falcons need to lose
Chiefs beat the Jets
Raiders and Ravens need to win
49ers need to lose

For the Chiefs to get the #7 overall pick (19%)...

Chiefs beat the Jets
Rams, Falcons, Raiders and Ravens need to lose
49ers need to win

For the Chiefs to get the #8 overall pick (25%)...

Chiefs beat the Jets
Rams, Falcons, Raiders, Ravens and 49ers need to lose

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Comments

I've been double checking this list

for the last ten minutes or so. Let me know if there are any errors.

by Chris Thorman on Dec 28, 2007 12:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Best (worst)

Does it look like #8 is the worst draft spot we could end up with?

by Lanier63 on Dec 28, 2007 12:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I believe so

#8 is the worst spot we can end up with. The 49ers are the only 5 win team now, so we can't drop below any of the current 6 win teams.

by Chris Thorman on Dec 28, 2007 12:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think there is a real chance at #3

Can the Seahawks improve anything by winning against the Falcons? If not, won't they likely sit their starters for at least some of the game? Also, Rams beating the Cardinals? That's not unimaginable. As crazy as it sounds, I think we have a better chance at getting to #2 than we did of making the playoffs last year. Now of course, we are going to beat the Jets so this is all moot, but on the off chance...

by PVChiefsfan on Dec 28, 2007 12:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

What if

we sit our starters?

by Lanier63 on Dec 28, 2007 12:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we will sit them

but I guarantee we will see a lot of young guys getting some playing time. Herm already hinted that Battle would get some more carries. I expect to see a lot of Sapp and Patterson (Brackenridge's injury really cost us some good looks at him) and also Tank and Turk, especially since we need to determine whether DT is a high draft need.

by PVChiefsfan on Dec 28, 2007 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Chirs

If we lost to the Jets, wouldn't their percentage automatically go down since our strength would also go down, meaning we still may have to draft after them? I am not that great with math percentages.

by Lanier63 on Dec 28, 2007 1:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

RE

Thats one thing I was looking at but wasn't sure about. I know the opp. winning percentages will change after Week 17 but I'm not sure by how much.

I'm not worried about any of the teams playing other teams with winning records. Their opp. percentage would go up of course.

Week 17 may change things but I don't think it will change them enough to make a difference. We'll see...

by Chris Thorman on Dec 28, 2007 2:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I am pretty sure

that one game will not make much of a difference in the opponent winning percentage column...now if all 13 teams which the Jets played this year all lost this Sunday, it might make enough of a change, but even then I doubt it. Each team plays 13 different opponents who all play 16 games for a total of 208 games figured into the opponents' % column. 13 games does represent .0625 of that so I guess the Jets could beat us and still pick before us, but it's not likely (and I am not even going to see which of the teams that could pick before us at #8 played the Jets this season...not that bored).

by PVChiefsfan on Dec 28, 2007 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This post was tedious to do

But I'm glad I got it out there for this weekend. I need to organize things like this on paper (or the web) before I can wrap my mind around them.

And yes, I was that bored.

by Chris Thorman on Dec 28, 2007 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm fine with picking 8th if we can get a win

Looking at the draft this year, there really are no players that are worth a top 5 pick.

We don't need a QB, at least not THIS year (maybe next if Croyle keeps getting hurt) and there really aren't any franchise QBs in this draft anyway, alot of good ones, but no superstar ones.

Long is the highest ranked lineman, but from what I've read he's not clearly head and shoulders above the many other quality linemen available this year. He is someone the Chiefs should have on their radar if they can't trade down for more picks, but I don't think we would feel we missed a great opportunity if someone picked him before us and we ended up with Otah or Clady.

Dorsey IS considered to be one of the rare superstar Defensive Linemen to come out of college for some time (the guy was even in the talk for the Heisman for a while). But with our other needs and the fact we drafted 2nd & 3rd round Defensive Linemen last year, I can't see them picking him.

In my opinion, getting a win to break the losing streak before the end of the season is VASTLY more important to this team next year than picking a few spots higher.

by DJ on Dec 28, 2007 3:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Carl Peterson Era First Round Selections

Read into this list as you will. He is one for two in drafting Off Linemen first round.

1989     Derrick Thomas     Alabama     LB
1990     Percy Snow     Michigan State     LB
1991     Harvey Williams     LSU     RB
1992     Dale Carter     Tennessee     CB
1993     No selection[3]
1994     Greg Hill     Texas A&M     RB
1995     Trezelle Jenkins Mich    OT
1996     Jerome Woods     Memphis     SS
1997     Tony Gonzalez     California     TE
1998     Victor Riley     Auburn     OT
1999     John Tait     Brigham Young     OT
2000     Sylvester Morris Jackson State     WR
2001     No selection[6]
2002    Ryan Sims     North Carolina     DT
2003     Larry Johnson     Penn State     RB
2004     No selection[9]
2005     Derrick Johnson     Texas     LB
2006     Tamba Hali     Penn State     DE
2007     Dwayne Bowe     Louisiana State WR

Like most teams in the NFL, the Chiefs have never drafted a fullback, placekicker, or punter in the first round of the NFL Draft. Running backs are the most commonly selected by the Chiefs in the first round, with 10 coming since 1960.

* 4 wide receivers
* 3 linebackers
* 3 cornerbacks
* 5 defensive ends
* 7 offensive tackles

* 1 safeties
* 10 running backs
* 4 defensive tackles
* 2 tight ends
* 4 guards

* 4 quarterbacks
* 1 centers
* 0 fullbacks
* 0 kickers
* 0 punters

One interesting note: KC has only drafted three kickers: Two by CP.
2007    5      Justin Medlock    UCLA
1991    9      Robbie Keen    California
1966    3     Jan Stenerud    Montana St

by Lanier63 on Dec 28, 2007 4:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

What happened to his scouting ability

his first four years were all good to great picks then its hit and miss until these last 4 picks. Its like he lost it for a 8 year stretch.

by TXroyal on Dec 28, 2007 8:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I still

won't be unhappy if we draft outside of an o-lineman. Trading down to get more middle of the road talent (Ryan Sims, anyone?) is the only thing that will piss me off. Unlike the majority of the great Chiefs fans on this site, I tend to agree with the general consensus...

This draft is loaded.

When Matt Ryan is maybe the 3rd best QB on the board? Are you kidding me? When Myndenhall is not even close to the best back available? Yikes. Then you've got the depth at DT and CB. The only, and I mean ONLY position that's weak in the first round of this draft?

Of course. It's o-line.

Sigh.

I love Brodie as much as the next guy. But I see no harm in taking the best player available. I'm not saying we can afford to ignore the o-line. I'd just rather see us do it by landing two big free agents, and filling in with 2nd and 3rd round talent and journeymen as we build. Here's a rebuilding line everyone seems to be ignoring. We can't turn around the o-line overnight.

We need two or three seasons to build it and get a scheme everyone's on the same page with.

Also, Glenn Dorsey eats people for breakfast.

Not criticising Herm Edwards for anything since December '07.

by Ridiculous Matt on Dec 29, 2007 2:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

If we lose to the Jets

and the Falcons beat the Seahawks' second string guys then we would pick 3rd and if Dorsey was available, I bet we would grab him. It all depends on whether Miami is happy with Beck (maybe) and "I loves the herb" Williams (probably not)...if they pass on Dorsey and take McFadden or a QB, then the DT may fall to us. I have a feeling that St. Louis may take Long as an eventual replacement for Pace and Atlanta almost has to take a QB or McFadden if he is still there. Out of curiosity, who are the 2 QB's you would put above Ryan? (If one of them isn't Brennan, do you think if he beats up on Georgia he could move up big-time?)

by PVChiefsfan on Dec 29, 2007 2:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

this draft may go a little bonkers.

McFadden is all world talent, but the no.1 and probable no.2 pick either have a running back they're satisfied with,or have a bigger need elsewhere. I'm going to put this out there again.

If DMac is there, we take him. There should be no questions, no cries of outrage, no confusion. He's the best player in this year's draft, last year's draft, and the year before that's draft. We took LJ when we had Priest, why not take DMac when we have LJ? If we give up McFadden to Jones, we will regret it. I am certain of this fact.

I would put Brohm and Woodson above Ryan. Both of those players played better with worse surrounding talent than Ryan (though I love, love, love Ryan's cannon arm. Makes Brodie look like he's shooting with a slingshot,and that's no small feat). Brennan's knock is going to be the same as Harrell's, he's a system QB. Brohm is, in my opinion, the best QB in the draft. Woodson has a lot of athletic talent, but we've seen too many of these athletic, mobile, short slinger QBs fail for me to be too excited about him, though his combination of talents is rare and impressive.

By the way, whoever said earlier in the year in one of the game threads that DeShaun Jackson would move up by the end of the year? Props to you. Scouts Inc. has him at 15.

Not criticising Herm Edwards for anything since December '07.

by Ridiculous Matt on Dec 29, 2007 6:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I have no problem...

picking the best player available in the 1st round, if Dorsey is available, the Chiefs need to carefully consider if the guys we got last year are going to develop into what we need in that position in the future or if we still have need at that position.

However, Ryan Simms is a perfect example of a 1st round bust. The Chiefs didn't trade down and take him, they traded UP and gave away picks in later rounds to get him because all the "experts" said he was such a great player. This has to be one of the worst picks in Chiefs history.

So is it worse to draft the best player at a position you have dire need for and risk him being a bust OR drafting a player that you already have some guys that are developing but is not really a need, and maybe he turns into a bust and you STILL have not filled your positions of need with the best player available.

The O-line needs to be built through the draft just like the rest of the team. Getting free agents (unless they are young free agents) is just putting a temporary bandaid on it, just like we have been all through the Vermeil era.

Yes, drafted linemen will take time to develop, but next year we're looking at probably 90% of the team having played 3 years or less. Is it better to have these young guys in there making their mistakes at the same time as the other young guys, or do you want to have young guys in there being the weak link in the chain of a veteran team?

I'll be fine with whoever the Chiefs pick in the first round, the drafts in the Herm Edwards era have proven that they have a good eye for talent and they deserve the benefit of the doubt. But offensive line MUST be addressed in this draft. Literally a minimum of 3, preferably 4 linemen should be drafted. We need not only starters, but backups as well (we're probably looking at losing at least 4 linemen that we had playing this year; Wiegman, Welbourne, Terry, Turley).

by DJ on Dec 29, 2007 7:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Some Ideas

stirring up the cobwebs here. If Long is gone (and there's every chance he will be) but McFadden is available, I say we trade down. Jerry Jones is in love with Run DMC and is itching to get his hands on him. Dallas would gladly give both their 1st rounders and at least their second to get him. This sets us up for 4 picks in the first two rounds. Which set us up for

OT Oher
OT Otah or Loadholt
CB Thomas
WR/KR (A sideline burner)

The O-Line FA field has a couple decent guards available (Faneca and Lilga) but the OT field will yield only average talent.

by Halfbreed5050 on Dec 29, 2007 5:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs