From the FanPosts -Joel
In 2013 and 2014, the Seattle Seahawks showed America why they were the model organization for how a team should be built in today's NFL. Not only did they find themselves in the Super bowl two straight years, they did so largely because their franchise QB, Russell Wilson, was under contract and making less than $1M per year at the highest paid position in the NFL.
The importance of productivity on rookie contracts has often been a topic of conversation ever since, and for once, the Chiefs have some players that fit that criterion. With Tyreek Hill, Chris Jones, and Marcus Peters all performing at high levels immediately, the organization that once lead the league in "dead money" has begun to turn around their cap numbers in a good way.
But which teams are in the best position in the AFC West? Is Alex Smith getting paid way too much money for his production? Are Eric Berry and Dontari Poe worth making even more money?
In this article, I will use the 2016 Pro Football Focus grading system and 2016 salary cap numbers to determine which Chiefs were the most overpaid and underpaid players, and hopefully help answer those questions along the way.
Player Valuations using Z-Score
Because not all positions are equal based on team spending, it is important to have a methodology to normalize their value based on salary cap. In order to so, I decided to utilize the z-score in this article to rank players on how underpaid or overpaid they were in 2016. In nerdy, mathematics terms, a z-score represents the number of standard deviations from the mean a data point is. But in this sense, it is necessary to use so that we can get values of players relative to their positions (or else every QB would be the most overpaid player).
In order to find the z-score, my first step was to identify the average amount of dollars spent per one point of PFF rating by each position. I used each players' 2016 salary cap figure and divided it by their PFF ranking, so that we got an average cap spent per point of PFF rating for each position. The results are as follows:
Pos. |
2016 Cap/PFF Grade |
STD |
QB |
$ 156,444.62 |
107424.88 |
T |
$ 57,131.65 |
44128.55 |
WR |
$ 52,901.48 |
47479.50 |
LB |
$ 45,371.17 |
46035.46 |
ED |
$ 45,142.07 |
44407.16 |
CB |
$ 43,990.21 |
42854.23 |
DI |
$ 43,430.58 |
40452.97 |
TE |
$ 39,787.05 |
31643.66 |
S |
$ 39,089.65 |
33773.12 |
G |
$ 34,476.59 |
32912.18 |
C |
$ 32,098.73 |
35421.84 |
RB |
$ 27,409.41 |
29723.33 |
FB |
$ 13,821.21 |
10135.54 |
As you can see (and were obviously aware of before reading this article), the quarterback is the highest paid position based on performance- with QBs getting paid $156K per point of PFF rating. This is nearly triple the value of the next highest positions- where Tackles and WRs get paid over $50K per point.
What is surprising is just how far the running back market has fallen. Once labeled one of the most important positions in the NFL, running backs in today's NFL are receiving less money per PFF point than anyone on the roster besides fullback.
Using the positional results above, we can now use the simple formula to determine each players' z-score: (x -MEAN)/(STD) to find the z-score for all players.
X= player being measured $/PFF
MEAN= average $/PFF for position being measured
STD= standard deviation of $/PFF for position measured
(Simply put, a negative value = underpaid, a positive value = overpaid.)
AFC West Player Values
Now that your math lesson has been given, let's go ahead and get to the good stuff by taking a look at who the most underpaid and overpaid players are in the AFC West.
Because I wanted to make sure to not throw off the ranking system, I went ahead and limited these lists to exclude players that had a 2016 PFF grade < 70 for underpaid players, and excluding players with PFF grades > 80 for overpaid players. (I mean come on, nobody wants to hear that Philip Gaines is underpaid after all)
AFC West Underpaid Players - Offense
Name |
Pos |
Team |
PFF Rating |
2016 Cap Hit |
$/PFF Rating |
Z-Score |
Derek Carr |
QB |
OAK |
87 |
$ 1,465,037 |
$ 16,840 |
-1.30 |
Andy Janovich |
FB |
DEN |
81.8 |
$ 456,657 |
$ 5,583 |
-0.81 |
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif |
G |
KC |
78.4 |
$ 633,575 |
$ 8,081 |
-0.80 |
Max Garcia |
G |
DEN |
74 |
$ 611,423 |
$ 8,262 |
-0.80 |
Zach Fulton |
G |
KC |
75.6 |
$ 634,555 |
$ 8,394 |
-0.79 |
Hunter Henry |
TE |
SD |
78.7 |
$ 1,160,055 |
$ 14,740 |
-0.79 |
Tyreek Hill |
WR |
KC |
79.1 |
$ 497,500 |
$ 6,290 |
-0.78 |
Tyrell Williams |
WR |
SD |
78.6 |
$ 525,000 |
$ 6,679 |
-0.77 |
Gabe Jackson |
G |
OAK |
81.1 |
$ 762,844 |
$ 9,406 |
-0.76 |
Dontrelle Inman |
WR |
SD |
77.6 |
$ 600,000 |
$ 7,732 |
-0.75 |
AFC West Overpaid Players - Offense
Name |
Pos |
Team |
PFF Rating |
2016 Cap Hit |
$/PFF Rating |
Z-Score |
Orlando Franklin |
G |
SD |
47.5 |
$ 7,200,000 |
$ 151,579 |
3.56 |
Demaryius Thomas |
WR |
DEN |
79.5 |
$ 15,200,000 |
$ 191,195 |
2.72 |
Jamize Olawale |
FB |
OAK |
54.5 |
$ 2,190,000 |
$ 40,183 |
2.60 |
Jeremy Maclin |
WR |
KC |
67.1 |
$ 12,400,000 |
$ 184,799 |
2.60 |
C.J. Anderson |
RB |
DEN |
66.6 |
$ 6,000,000 |
$ 90,090 |
2.11 |
Donald Stephenson |
T |
DEN |
28 |
$ 4,000,000 |
$ 142,857 |
1.94 |
Michael Crabtree |
WR |
OAK |
77.2 |
$ 11,000,000 |
$ 142,487 |
1.80 |
Anthony Sherman |
FB |
KC |
75.2 |
$ 2,000,000 |
$ 26,596 |
1.26 |
Austin Howard |
T |
OAK |
56.1 |
$ 5,900,000 |
$ 105,169 |
1.09 |
Antonio Gates |
TE |
SD |
74.2 |
$ 5,500,000 |
$ 74,124 |
1.09 |
Taking a look at the AFC West's most underpaid players, it should be no surprise that Derek Carr leads the list as the #1 most underpaid player on offense. Not only did Carr put up an 87 PFF grade, but he did so with a $/PFF rating at under $17K for a position that on average pays $156K.
What is great to see, however, is that the list of underpaid players includes three Chiefs in the top seven, with two of which being offensive linemen. Inversely, our friend Donald Stephenson found himself on the overpaid list, helping to support Dorsey's case for his tendency to let linemen go before they command top-dollar.
Now let's move to the defensive side of the ball...
AFC West Underpaid Players - Defense
Name |
Pos |
Team |
PFF Rating |
2016 Cap Hit |
$/PFF Rating |
Z-Score |
Terrance Mitchell |
CB |
KC |
82.3 |
$ 211,764 |
$ 2,573 |
-0.97 |
Justin Simmons |
S |
DEN |
74.2 |
$ 611,355 |
$ 8,239 |
-0.91 |
Ramik Wilson |
LB |
KC |
83.6 |
$ 339,705 |
$ 4,063 |
-0.90 |
Shaquil Barrett |
ED |
DEN |
81.1 |
$ 525,000 |
$ 6,473 |
-0.87 |
Korey Toomer |
LB |
SD |
81.2 |
$ 494,117 |
$ 6,085 |
-0.85 |
Jatavis Brown |
LB |
SD |
80.8 |
$ 496,096 |
$ 6,140 |
-0.85 |
Perry Riley |
LB |
OAK |
84.8 |
$ 581,176 |
$ 6,853 |
-0.84 |
Travis Carrie |
CB |
OAK |
73.4 |
$ 616,741 |
$ 8,402 |
-0.83 |
Todd Davis |
LB |
DEN |
76 |
$ 600,000 |
$ 7,895 |
-0.81 |
Steven Nelson |
CB |
KC |
72.9 |
$ 682,988 |
$ 9,369 |
-0.81 |
AFC West Overpaid Players - Defense
Name |
Pos |
Team |
PFF Rating |
2016 Cap Hit |
$/PFF Rating |
Z-Score |
Corey Liuget |
DI |
SD |
49.3 |
$ 10,000,000 |
$ 202,840 |
3.94 |
Brandon Flowers |
CB |
SD |
76.7 |
$ 9,750,000 |
$ 127,119 |
1.94 |
Dontari Poe |
DI |
KC |
55.8 |
$ 6,146,000 |
$ 110,143 |
1.65 |
Dan Williams |
DI |
OAK |
74.4 |
$ 7,500,000 |
$ 100,806 |
1.42 |
DeMarcus Ware |
ED |
DEN |
77.4 |
$ 8,010,418 |
$ 103,494 |
1.31 |
Derek Wolfe |
DI |
DEN |
78.9 |
$ 6,800,000 |
$ 86,185 |
1.06 |
T.J. Ward |
S |
DEN |
77.5 |
$ 5,750,000 |
$ 74,194 |
1.04 |
D.J. Hayden |
CB |
OAK |
48.6 |
$ 3,284,813 |
$ 67,589 |
0.55 |
Malcolm Smith |
LB |
OAK |
49.7 |
$ 3,000,000 |
$ 60,362 |
0.33 |
Sylvester Williams |
DI |
DEN |
43.5 |
$ 2,412,375 |
$ 55,457 |
0.30 |
I'm not gonna lie...when Terrance Mitchell started for Kansas City midway thru the season, I had no clue where the hell he came from. But boy was it a pleasant surprise. Flash forward a few months and he now finds himself as the AFC West's most valuable asset when it comes to performance per dollar spent. In fact, Terrance Mitchell is one of three Chiefs who found themselves in the top ten list of most underpaid players in the AFC West (with a handful just missing the cut).
As we move to the overpaid list, it might be surprising to see Dontari Poe at #3. This is important for a few reasons...the top being that he will likely make more money over the next few years compared to what he made in 2016. The decision to let Poe walk or re-sign him to big bucks might not be that hard to make after all...
Chiefs Player Values
I can already hear some of you saying to yourself..."well that was fun and all, but what if I don't care about the damn Raiders, Donkeys, and Los Angeles San Diego Chargers?!"
Don't worry friends, it is time. Here are the results for your Kansas City Chieeeeeffffs:
Chiefs Player Values - Offense
Name |
Pos |
Team |
PFF Rating |
2016 Cap Hit |
$/PFF Rating |
Z-Score |
Jeremy Maclin |
WR |
KC |
67.1 |
$ 12,400,000 |
$ 184,799 |
2.60 |
Anthony Sherman |
FB |
KC |
75.2 |
$ 2,000,000 |
$ 26,596 |
1.26 |
Eric Fisher |
T |
KC |
76.7 |
$ 6,854,636 |
$ 89,369 |
0.73 |
Alex Smith |
QB |
KC |
82.2 |
$ 17,800,000 |
$ 216,545 |
0.56 |
Travis Kelce |
TE |
KC |
88.3 |
$ 2,948,226 |
$ 33,389 |
-0.20 |
Charcandrick West |
RB |
KC |
62.3 |
$ 958,333 |
$ 15,383 |
-0.40 |
Spencer Ware |
RB |
KC |
75.5 |
$ 958,333 |
$ 12,693 |
-0.50 |
Demetrius Harris |
TE |
KC |
41.1 |
$ 950,000 |
$ 23,114 |
-0.53 |
Mitch Morse |
C |
KC |
81.1 |
$ 1,062,062 |
$ 13,096 |
-0.54 |
Mitchell Schwartz |
T |
KC |
80.7 |
$ 2,400,000 |
$ 29,740 |
-0.62 |
Chris Conley |
WR |
KC |
54.4 |
$ 738,108 |
$ 13,568 |
-0.64 |
Albert Wilson |
WR |
KC |
51.7 |
$ 603,334 |
$ 11,670 |
-0.68 |
Tyreek Hill |
WR |
KC |
79.1 |
$ 497,500 |
$ 6,290 |
-0.78 |
Zach Fulton |
G |
KC |
75.6 |
$ 634,555 |
$ 8,394 |
-0.79 |
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif |
G |
KC |
78.4 |
$ 633,575 |
$ 8,081 |
-0.80 |
Before writing this article, I am sure many Chiefs fans figured Alex Smith would be the most overpaid Chief. Surprise! That award actually goes to J-Mac in 2016- and it wasn't even really that close. And although Maclin had a down year, his contract may forever be tough to outperform for a player at his age with his lofty cap numbers. Anthony Sherman comes in as the second most overpaid Chief, frankly because the Chiefs are the only bastards crazy enough to give the position a significant salary.
Another thing to note on this list is that Travis Kelce and Mitchell Schwartz are still considered "underpaid" even after they received their second contract. However, don't get too excited- the majority of their money comes beginning next year.
Chiefs Player Values - Defense
Name |
Pos |
Team |
PFF Rating |
2016 Cap Hit |
$/PFF Rating |
Z-Score |
Justin Houston |
ED |
KC |
80 |
$ 13,100,000 |
$ 163,750 |
2.67 |
Eric Berry |
S |
KC |
87.6 |
$ 10,806,000 |
$ 123,356 |
2.50 |
Dontari Poe |
DI |
KC |
55.8 |
$ 6,146,000 |
$ 110,143 |
1.65 |
Jaye Howard |
DI |
KC |
63.2 |
$ 3,500,000 |
$ 55,380 |
0.30 |
Ron Parker |
S |
KC |
81.8 |
$ 3,600,000 |
$ 44,010 |
0.15 |
Tamba Hali |
ED |
KC |
82.1 |
$ 3,802,083 |
$ 46,310 |
0.03 |
Derrick Johnson |
LB |
KC |
81.5 |
$ 3,500,000 |
$ 42,945 |
-0.05 |
Dee Ford |
ED |
KC |
66.5 |
$ 2,225,100 |
$ 33,460 |
-0.26 |
Marcus Peters |
CB |
KC |
85.1 |
$ 2,178,217 |
$ 25,596 |
-0.43 |
Frank Zombo |
ED |
KC |
44.3 |
$ 1,066,666 |
$ 24,078 |
-0.47 |
Phillip Gaines |
CB |
KC |
37.6 |
$ 755,778 |
$ 20,100 |
-0.56 |
Chris Jones |
DI |
KC |
83.5 |
$ 1,132,950 |
$ 13,568 |
-0.74 |
Steven Nelson |
CB |
KC |
72.9 |
$ 682,988 |
$ 9,369 |
-0.81 |
Rakeem Nunez-Roches |
DI |
KC |
43.3 |
$ 339,705 |
$ 7,845 |
-0.88 |
Ramik Wilson |
LB |
KC |
83.6 |
$ 339,705 |
$ 4,063 |
-0.90 |
Daniel Sorensen |
S |
KC |
68.4 |
$ 600,000 |
$ 8,772 |
-0.90 |
Terrance Mitchell |
CB |
KC |
82.3 |
$ 211,764 |
$ 2,573 |
-0.97 |
Taking a look at the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs have invested heavily over the last few drafts, and the numbers show. Players like Terrance Mitchell, Ramik Wilson, Steven Nelson and Chris Jones have been key in giving the Chiefs great depth while getting them on very reasonable contracts. The future is bright, but they will need to target the LB position over the next few years, especially with their top performers in this core aging.
On the flip side, John Dorsey needs to be very cautious this off season when deciding on Berry and Poe. Too many bad contracts such as Justin Houston's can really handicap a team for the immediate future, and the organization cannot afford to give big deals to players outside their prime (or with injury issues).
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, Chiefs fans have a lot of reason to be hopeful for a very young team that has had a lot of recent success in the NFL draft. If GM John Dorsey can continue to nail his draft picks while also avoiding bad contracts, the window will continue to grow. Now if they could just find that Russell Wilson, things would be a lot easier...