FanPost

NFL Draft Prospects That May SPARQ The Chiefs Interest: Defensive Line And Edge Rushers

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

From the FanPosts. See part one for this analysis on the Chiefs roster. -Joel

If you haven't done so yet, I would recommend going back and reading part one in my series on how the John Dorsey led Chiefs and other NFL teams are utilizing metrics like SPARQ to identify and draft athletes that fit a certain profile. Like last time all credit for the data and calculations goes to 3 Sigma Athlete and Field Gulls.

Essentially SPARQ is a way of identifying prospects that are the embodiment of Big, Fast, Strong, Agile and Explosive. A way of finding and quantifying all round freak athletes. Remember that SPARQ only tells us about a player's athletic ability, it tells us nothing about how good of a football player they are (you need tape for that). For a General Manager like Dorsey who modus operandi seems to be to acquire great athletes and let the coaching staff capitalize on their natural ability abilities it's a useful tool to consider, but certainly not the be all end all in scouting a prospect.

In part one I identified a relatively strong correlation between SPARQ scores and Chiefs acquisitions in 2014 and 2015 (with no data available for 2013). Some of the things we learned by looking at Dorsey's previous draft classes can also translate into identifying prospects in the 2016 class who may fit the Chiefs mold.

To Summarize:

  • Chiefs acquisitions have, on average, ranked in the Top 13 percent of their draft class within their respective position groups in SPARQ athleticism. They've never drafted a player in the bottom half of their draft class position group in SPARQ.
  • Of the 24 players analyzed 7 (29 percent) ranked in the Top 10 of their draft class position group in SPARQ athleticism. Another five graded out within the Top 20; meaning that 12 of the Chiefs 24 acquisitions (50 percent) ranked within the Top 20 of their Draft Class position group in SPARQ score. Three were the top ranked player.
  • On average Chiefs acquisitions (drafted and UDFA / Waiver Claims) ranked in the 71st Percentile when compared to their NFL peers, wIth an average Z-Score of .73 standard deviations above the mean
  • The Chiefs have never drafted a player with a SPARQ Score more than one standard deviation below the mean. Ramik Wilson is the lowest rated player drafted with a Z-Score of -0.8. The Chiefs are just not drafting or retaining players who are not at least average athletes compared to their NFL peers.

From these we can arrive at a few general rules:

  • The Chiefs like their SPARQ freaks. We should be taking a close look at guys that rank highly in SPARQ, particularly those in the Top 20 of their position groups.
  • John Dorsey is perfectly willing to take guys with average SPARQ scores if they have excellent tape and intangibles (see Marcus Peters). These guys check the box for NFL athleticism, but don't set themselves apart on their athletic ability.
  • What the Chiefs are not willing to do is take on guys who are significantly below average athletes for the NFL. They've never taken a player with a z-score more than -0.8 standard deviations below the mean for their positions. As a conservative rule we can likely eliminate any prospect more than one Standard Deviation below the mean from the Chiefs draft board.
  • The Chiefs seem to like using the late rounds and UDFA to take high upside SPARQ athletes.

Now let's focus in on some 2016 Draft Prospects and their potential fit for the Chiefs...

Edge Rushers

It's seems fitting to start with those freakiest of freaks: Edge Rushers. It's no secret that pass rushers are by and large freak athletes. They are a highly athletic bunch as whole and it hard for guys to stand out from their NFL peers (not even guys like Cameron Wake or Demarcus Ware are 3 Sigmas). It is a position group where many of the top guys, including the Chiefs own All-Pro linebacker Justin Houston, are SPARQ superstars. Just take a look at the SPARQ data for some of the NFL's premier pass rushers (Courtesy of Field Gulls):

Elite Edge Rushers

For reference Houston's SPARQ score is nearly identical to that of freak athlete WR Chris Conley. Being a plus athlete is a major part of being successful as an NFL edge rusher. In 2014 and 2015 the Chiefs have only acquired one rookie edge rushing prospect, first round draft pick Dee Ford, who had a fairly strong but not elite showing in SPARQ (pSPARQ: 122.5 Z-Score: 0.6 NFL Percentile: 72.6% Class Rank: 20/113 LEO).

Edge rusher is not the Chiefs biggest need with Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, and Dee Ford (as well a number of developmental guys) already in house. But, as the old mantra goes "you can never have enough pass rushers". Tamba is also getting older. Dee Ford has yet to firmly establish himself. Houston is projected to miss some time with his knee injury. It's a position where the Chiefs could well invest if the right prospect is available. With that context let's take a look at the top 20 SPARQ Edge Rusher in the 2016 Draft Class.

2016 Edge Rushing Class:

2016 Edge Sparq

These results verify Emmanuel Ogbah and Shaq Lawson's first round athletic chops, and the list doesn't include Leonard Floyd's 137.6 SPARQ as he played middle linebacker last season for Georgia. However the 2016 edge rush class as a whole largely underwhelms, reinforcing the general consensus that this is a weak pass rushing class. It has just seven prospects with SPARQ scores of 130+, and just two of those are in consideration for high draft picks (Emmanuel Ogbah and Shaq Lawson). A number of potential first round picks aren't dazzling athletes (Joey Bosa 67th Percentile and Noah Spence 58th Percentile). For reference the 2015 class had 12 prospects at 130+ including many top guys like Vic Beasley, Bud Dupree, Owa Odighizuwa, and Randy Gregory. Take a look for yourself...

2015 Edge Rushing Class:

2015 Edge Rushers

As we can see 2015 had substantially more freak athletes than we find in 2016. The Top 10 scores in the 2015 class average to 141.96 almost 10 points higher than the 132.7 average in the 2016 class. 2016 seems to be a bit lacking in top end athletes at the edge rush position, and for a position so dependent on athleticism, that's a red flag. It might not be a bad year to look elsewhere in the early rounds. Especially with many potential first round picks grading out as just average athletically.

SPARQ Confirmed:

Emmanuel Ogbah (6'4" 273 lbs) Oklahoma State

pSPARQ: 131.8 Z-Score: 0.9 Percentile: 82.0% Class Rank: 5/98

Ogbah is regarded as a first round pick largely based on freak athleticism, which his 131.8 SPARQ score does confirm (somewhat). Ogbah has received criticism for a lack of production when facing off against NFL caliber offensive linemen and it's worth noting that while a 131.8 score is really damn good it's not the 140+ posted by freakish athletes like Justin Houston or Khalil Mack. For a guy whose first round status hinges almost entirely on his athletic ability that's still a bit concerning.

Shaq Lawson (6'3" 267 lbs) Clemson

pSPARQ: 130.5 Z-Score: 0.8 Percentile: 79.3% Class Rank: 7/98

Lawson has the above average athleticism to justify a first round pick with a 130.5 SPARQ score good for 79th percentile amongst NFL edge rushers.

Charles Tapper (6'2" 271 lbs) Oklahoma

pSPARQ: 133.7 Z-Score: 1.1 Percentile: 85.4% Class Rank: 4/98

A projected third round pick based on his outstanding athleticism Tapper's SPARQ score doesn't disappoint. Tapper offers first round athletic talent without the refinement, looks like a good value pick up in the mid rounds.

Red Flag:

Kevin Dodd (6'5" 277 lbs) Clemson

pSPARQ: 108.0 Z-Score: -.0.9 Percentile: 19.2% Class Rank: 52/98

Dodd was one half of a dynamic pass rush duo at Clemson (with Shaq Lawson) and is regarded by many as a potential first round pick. Dodd's rather miserable SPARQ performance, in which he tested out well below average, likely has him off the Chiefs board entirely. If drafted he would set new lows in Z-Score (-0.9 Standard Deviations Below the Mean) and be the only bottom half of their class prospect ever drafted.

Honorable Mentions: Yannick Ngakoue (38th Percentile), Shillique Calhoun (48th Percentile) and Noah Spence (58th Percentile) all test out around average on SPARQ. At a position as athleticism dependent as Edge Rush is their tape good enough to overlook a lack of elite athletic attributes and take these guys in the top two rounds?

The Gem:

Tyrone Holmes (6'2" 253lbs) Montana

pSPARQ: 130.8 Z-Score: 0.8 Percentile: 79.9% Class Rank: 6/98

Holmes was a dominant pass rushing force for the Grizzlies earning FCS Defensive Player of Year honors. Watch his YouTube Highlights and you see a guy who is a man amongst boys. The question with smaller school prospects often centers on level of competition. Holmes SPARQ score shows us that he has the athletic talent to play with the big boys on Sundays. He's an above average athlete for an NFL edge rusher ranking in the 80th percentile. His 37.5" vertical is rather absurd for a man his size and is indicative of an explosive athlete. Currently projected as a 6-7th round pick by CBS Holmes could represent an outstanding value for the Chiefs in the mid to late rounds of the draft.

Honorable Mention:

Alex McCalister (6'6" 239lbs) Florida

pSPARQ: 129.4 Z-Score: 0.7 Percentile: 76.8% Class Rank: 9/98

McCalister declared for the draft after being kicked off of the Florida team, character concerns likely keep McCalister in the late round to undrafted free agent ranks. Physically though McCalister is going to have scouts drooling. He's got an ideal frame with ridiculous length at 6'6 with 36" arms but will need to add some weight in an NFL strength and conditioning program. Remember that SPARQ doesn't factor in height or arm length so players with great scores and ideal frames are pretty special. He was a fairly productive player at Florida (Highlight Tape) outproducing teammate and likely first round pick Jonathan Bullard.

Update: After digging a bit deeper into Alex McCalister he may be my favorite edge rush prospect in the 2016 Class. He fits almost perfectly into a VERY RARE prototype for pass rushers...

McCalister Comparison

He'll need to add weight for the NFL, but if he can retain his athleticism after packing on ~15 pounds... Watch Out! You just don't find guys with this kind of length and athleticism often, He's got the potential to be flat out ELITE.

The Longshots:

Skyler Suggs (6'2" 268lbs) Lindenwood

pSPARQ: 138.7 Z-Score: 1.4 Percentile: 92.3% Class Rank: 1/98

Suggs would be a prime UDFA target for the Chiefs. He's a small school guy from St. Louis and who played at Lindenwood, could the Chiefs keep him in Missouri? He's a legitimate freak athlete with a 138.7 SPARQ score (the best in the 2016 edge rush class) and a 4.49 forty at 268 pounds. Those are insane numbers but, as Suggs wasn't a combine invite, come from his pro day (and that merits taking them with a grain of salt). Strength is a bit of a concern as Suggs put up just 8 bench press reps (he does have very long 35.5" arms however).

Trent Corney (6'3" 251lbs) Virginia

pSPARQ: 137.6 Z-Score: 1.4 Percentile: 91.2% Class Rank: 2/98

Fulfills Dorsey's quota for both Canadian Players and guys known more for their YouTube hijinks than football tape. Corney is a freak athlete putting up 34 reps on bench, a 4.6 40-yard dash, and a 38" vertical leap at the Regional Combine giving him an outstanding 137.6 SPARQ score. Corney had limited college production but his freakish athleticism will likely make him a hot commodity as an Undrafted Free Agent.

Conclusion:

We know that John Dorsey values SPARQ and the data suggests 2016 is a fairly underwhelming edge rush class. There aren't any massive freaks like Vic Beasley this year and the class is largely lacking in top tier athletic talent in the early rounds. I would predict John Dorsey passes on an edge rusher early in the draft, and instead focuses on finding a mid round gem like Tyrone Holmes or bringing in a few high upside UDFAs. Dorsey has already started the process this offseason by signing several raw high upside developmental guys in Brit Efe Odaba and Discus Thrower turned NFL Player Tautvydas Kieras. The 6'3 273 pound Kieras is the 13th ranked SPARQ edge rusher in the 2016 class with a pSPARQ of 125.7 (Z-Score: 0.5 and 67.5 Percentile). He scores better on SPARQ than potential first round picks Joey Bosa, Kamalei Correa, and Noah Spence.

Defensive Line

The 2016 defensive line draft class is supposed to be loaded with talent, billed as the antithesis of the weak Edge Rush class. The Chiefs already have an established front three in place with Allen Bailey, Dontari Poe, and Jaye Howard. It's not the biggest position of need but with Mike Devito retiring the team could use some quality depth. The Chiefs are also in the perfect situation to take a high upside guy who needs a bit of development and let him learn behind Bailey, Poe, and Howard. The Chiefs have drafted or acquired the following D-Line prospects under John Dorsey:

Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT (6'2" 307 lbs): Southern Mississippi

SPARQ: 119.7 Z-Score: 0.6 NFL Percentile: 73.2% Class Rank: 13/176 DL

David Irving DE (6'7" 273 lbs): Iowa State

SPARQ: 130.0 Z-Score: 1.3 NFL Percentile: 91.1% Class Rank: 2/176 DL

It's a limited data set, but one that suggests the Chiefs do place a fair amount of credence in SPARQ scores for the position. Which makes sense considering Bob Sutton runs a one gap 3-4 defense that calls upon the D-Line to shoot gaps and generate pressure on QBs (we're not looking for big run stuffers like Tyson Jackson anymore). From a historical perspective a number of successful and highly disruptive defensive linemen such as Aaron Donald (136) have posted high SPARQ scores. Field Gulls provides a nice cross sectional look at SPARQ scores for a variety of successful NFL D-Linemen covering the full spectrum from 4-3 DE to 3-4 NT:

DL SPARQ

Note that SPARQ isn't perfect it does miss on some guys like Calais Campbell. The counterpoint is that the major thing that sets Campbell apart is his massive frame and incredible length, as mentioned earlier SPARQ accounts for neither. It's important to recognize the limitations of the metric and prospects with ideal length deserve some special consideration.

Without further ado here is your 2016 Defensive Line class...

2016 Defensive Line Class:

2016 DL Sparq

SPARQ Confirmed:

These potential early round picks tested out at an above average level (60th percentile or above) on SPARQ.

Javon Hargrave (6'1" 309 lbs) South Carolina State

pSPARQ: 120.0 Z-Score: 0.6 Percentile: 73.7% Class Rank: 17/125

Coming out of South Carolina State Hargrave has the sort of dominant tape you want to see from a prospect playing against a weaker level of competition. His SPARQ score confirms that he's got solidly above average NFL athleticism, grading out at the 73rd percentile. He's been talked about anywhere from the second to fourth rounds.

Jonathan Bullard (6'3" 285lbs) Florida

pSPARQ: 126.8 Z-Score: 1.1 Percentile: 87% Class Rank: 8/12

Sheldon Rankins (6'3" 285lbs) Louisville

pSPARQ: 124.6 Z-Score: 1.0 Percentile: 83.3% Class Rank: 10/125

Chris Jones (6'6" 310lbs) Mississippi State

pSPARQ: 115.5 Z-Score: 0.3 Percentile: 62.3% Class Rank: 22/125

Vernon Butler (6'4" 323lbs) Lousiana Tech

pSPARQ: 114.7 Z-Score: 0.3 Percentile: 60.1% Class Rank: 25/125

Red Flags:

These prospects have been talked about as early round picks but are likely off Dorsey's draft board due to their significantly below average athleticism.

A'Shawn Robinson (6'4" 307lbs) Alabama

pSPARQ: 94 Z-Score: -1.2 Percentile: 11% Class Rank: 82/125

Often discussed as a top half of the first round pick, Robinson has massive bust potential. He's likely off the Chiefs big big board with a SPARQ score below 100 points and more than one standard deviation below the mean for his position. Robinson just isn't an NFL athlete, a factor mitigated in college by Alabama's talented defensive front seven.

Adolphus Washington (6'3" 301bs) Ohio State
pSPARQ: 86.8 Z-Score: -1.7 Percentile: 4.1% Class Rank: 112/125
Austin Johnson (6'4" 314lbs) Penn State
pSPARQ: 85.4 Z-Score: -1.7 Percentile: 4.2% Class Rank: 111/125
Jarran Reed (6'3" 307lbs) Alabama
pSPARQ: 100.8 Z-Score: -0.7 Percentile: 23.0% Class Rank: 59/125
Jihad Ward (6'5" 297lbs) Illinois
pSPARQ: 105.4 Z-Score: -0.4 Percentile: 34.1% Class Rank: 47/125

The Gem:

Robert Nkemdiche (6'4" 294lbs) Mississippi

pSPARQ: 130.5 Z-Score: 1.4 Percentile: 91.7% Class Rank: 4/125

Nkemdiche is a polarizing prospect, at the end of the 2015 season Nkemdiche was viewed as a surefire top three pick. Then he managed to fall out of a hotel window and get busted with pot landing him a suspension from Ole Miss' bowl game.

While Nkemdiche's off the field character has been called into question nobody has ever doubted that the former blue chip high school recruit has elite athletic talent. Nkemdiche's SPARQ score confirms this with a 91st percentile SPARQ (130.5). The athleticism translates to the field as Nkemdiche has some flat out dominant plays on tape, he's a good football player. It's not all bad when it comes to Nkemdiche's character either, his college coach credits Nkemdiche with turning the Ole Miss program around and he was reportedly well liked by teammates. The fact is we really don't know much about Nkemdiche's character; ESPN's article The Robert Nkemdiche Prophecy is an interesting look into his background and personality and in it he seems like a good kid at heart. His personality seems a bit like Marshawn Lynch - just a guy who marches to the beat of his own drummer and doesn't bother to conform the mold of the typical football player. If like Beastmode he's a supremely gifted athlete who's just a bit weird (and make no mistake Beastmode's one cool MF'er), Nkemdiche could be really special player.

Then again Nkemdiche could also go Ricky Williams on you. It all depends if Dorsey's comfortable with his character. For what it's worth Andy Reid's player friendly style (and emphasis on letting players be themselves) coupled with strong team leadership and unity would likely be a good match for Nkemdiche. If you're comfortable with his character he's the type of prospect you can't afford to pass on.

Honorable Mention:

Bronson Kaufusi (6'7" 285lbs) BYU

pSPARQ: 124.3 Z-Score: 0.9 Percentile: 82.8% Class Rank: 11/125

Kaufusi has already visited the Chiefs, plus Andy Reid has a well known affinity for BYU players, so we know that there is interest there. SPARQ tells us it's for good reason. Kaufusi has well above average athleticism grading in the 83rd percentile for NFL Defensive Line and was productive player at BYU (Highlight Tape). A talented basketball player (two sport athlete as freshman and sophomore) Kaufusi has impressive agility for his size with strong showings in the 3-Cone and Short Shuttle. He also has the prototype long frame that 3-4 defenses covet standing 6'7" with 34.5" arms. Age is a concern (as it is for most BYU prospects) however as Kaufusi is already 25 years old. Kaufusi is being projected as a second to third round pick. If the Chiefs still had a third rounder I would like Kaufusi at that spot.

The Longshots:

Justin Zimmer (6'2" 302lbs) Ferris State

pSPARQ: 140.1 Z-Score: 2.1 Percentile: 98.1% Class Rank: 1/125

Justin Zimmer, a defensive end out of tiny Ferris State just put up video game numbers at the Regional Combine. Seriously. 4.85 40-Yard Dash. 44 Bench Reps. 7.01 3-Cone. He's a physical freak, who grades out over two standard deviations above the mean for a defensive line prospect. Based on his YouTube Highlights Zimmer played primarily as an edge rusher in college. At 302 pounds with that kind of athleticism Zimmer has to have caught Dorsey's interest as a sub-package rusher and developmental defensive end. His SPARQ score will likely be enough for a team to take a late round flyer on his upside.

David Onyemata (6'3" 300lbs) Manitoba

pSPARQ: 136.1 Z-Score: 1.8 Percentile: 96.3% Class Rank: 2/125

Another shot for Dorsey to find his annual Canadian. Onyemata has actually been to Arrowhead to visit the Chiefs already this Draft season. A native of Nigeria, Onyemata only started playing football in 2011. He'll be very raw but with his ridiculous 136.1 SPARQ score (96th percentile) you can see why the Chiefs are interested in him for a developmental project.

Drew Iddings (6'5" 290lbs) South Dakota

pSPARQ: 125.9 Z-Score: 1.1 Percentile: 85.5% Class Rank: 9/125

How could you not like a 290 pound defensive tackle prospect who also high jumped for the college track team? Iddings has a great frame for 3-4 defensive end at 6'5 290lbs coupled with very solid 86th percentile athleticism, a full standard deviation above his positional mean. At 290lbs Iddings ran a 4.75 40-yard dash with a 33" vertical jump. Iddings is also a former all-state high school wrestler (as well as track and football), and a wrestling background is often cited by scouts as a positive for players on both offensive and defensive line as it teaches leverage concepts. Iddings college production wasn't spectacular but as an UDFA pickup he'd be worth bringing into camp.

Conclusion:

Based on what we already know about Dorsey's draft tendencies (a very small sample size) there is a strong chance the Chiefs will be looking for at least above average SPARQ-letes along the defensive line. Former Chiefs acquisitions Rakeem Nunez-Roches (13th) and David Irving (2nd) were both Top 15 SPARQ performers in their draft class. It's interesting to note that the Chiefs have reported visits with second rated David Onyemata with a 136.1 SPARQ, 11th rated Bronson Kaufusi with a 124.3 SPARQ, and 18th rated Kyle Peko 119.6 SPARQ. It's likely your next Chiefs defensive line selection is somewhere on that Top 25 SPARQ list.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.