FanPost

NFL Draft Prospects That May SPARQ The Chiefs Interest: Analyzing John Dorsey's Draft Patterns

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

From the FanPosts. This post has SO MUCH good information. Thanks for writing it, Everest. -Joel

If you follow the NFL Draft you have likely heard talk of SPARQ scores. SPARQ, which stands for Speed Power Agility Reaction and Quickness, is essentially an attempt to identify athletes who are bigger, stronger, faster, and more explosive than their peers. To find the freaks. It's a metric that goes beyond just forty times and attempts to identify prospects that fit a certain all round athletic profile. It first gained notoriety with the Seattle Seahawks who utilized it to identify and draft a score of late round gems including Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Bobby Wagner among others. SPARQ has since gained popularity in a number of NFL front offices including the Kansas City Chiefs under GM John Dorsey, who has referenced SPARQ scores in a number of post draft press conferences. The actual SPARQ formula is a secret and several different versions exist, I'd venture to guess that each NFL team utilizing the metric has their own version of the formula tweaked for their ideal athletic profile.

The data I utilized in this post is based on P-SPARQ (position adjusted) scores from the databases of 3-Sigma Athlete and Field Gulls; all credit for the data and calculations goes to them. P-SPARQ is calculated based upon 8 components: weight, forty-yard dash, ten-yard split, short shuttle, 3-cone drill, bench press, vertical jump, and broad jump.

An average score is not a bad score on SPARQ. The comparison group is a prospect's NFL peers. NFL players are a pretty damn athletic bunch, so there is a high base level of athleticism. Take Marcus Peters who graded out average athletically for an NFL corner on SPARQ. That's not a bad result, it simply means he's right at the average athleticism for an NFL corner. When you couple that with his incredible instincts and attitude you get a corner who is already looking like an elite player. What SPARQ helps you do is find the freaks. The guys who have elite athletic ability that sets them apart. SPARQ has an elite 3-Sigma club, made up of players with scores more than 3 standard deviations above their position group mean. These are the freakiest of the freaks. According to 3-Sigma Athlete the club includes just 5 current NFL Players JJ Watt, Calvin Johnson (recently retired), Evan Mathis, Lane Johnson, and Byron Jones.

SPARQ and other metrics are only one piece of the puzzle. They tell you nothing about how good of a football player someone is, for that you have to go to the tape. Where these metrics are useful is in identifying a pool of prospects that fit your desired athletic profile. Think of it as a qualifying metric. It allows you to find late round gems who have the athletic ability to develop into stars. It also allows you to red flag prospects who don't have the requisite athleticism to make it in the NFL. If a top prospect grades out poorly on SPARQ it's a huge red flag that the guy may have been compensating for their lack of athleticism with superior technique, a great supporting cast, or inferior competition… While that may have been enough in College these factors that don’t really translate well to the NFL where everyone is bigger, faster, and more technically sound. There are of course exceptions to this rule, guys who become elite players despite below average athletic attributes, but they're a rarity.

Unfortunately the original Nike SPARQ formula is proprietary, it has however been reverse engineered by some contributors over at Field Gulls but they have not made the formula public. They have released full SPARQ results for the 2014 and 2015 draft classes. 2013 information was not readily available, so I was unable to analyze John Dorsey's Year One draft class. From the limited information available I can tell you that the Year 1 class did contain SPARQ stand outs like Knile Davis (129.0 SPARQ) and Travis Kelce (128.5 SPARQ). For this analysis I selected players that were either drafted by the Chiefs or acquired by the team as Rookie UDFA or Rookie Waiver Claims and managed to stick with the team on either the 53 Man Roster or Practice Squad, I may have missed some guys but it should be a fairly good representation. Be fair warned though that this is a pretty limited data set at this point.

Four key factors

pSPARQ: The raw SPARQ score a player achieved, calculated based upon weight, forty-yard dash, ten-yard split, short shuttle, three cone drill, bench press, vertical jump, and broad jump. The formula itself is slightly tweaked for each position group to weight certain factors based upon their importance to that position (i.e. long speed in the forty yard dash is more important for wide receivers than it is for offensive line). The normal pSPARQ score varies by position group as certain positions are more stacked with freaky athletes than others but a general rule of thumb is:

  • Score 100: Below average for NFL Athletes
  • Score 100-115: Average for NFL Athletes
  • Score 116-130: Very Good for NFL Athletes
  • Score 130+: Elite NFL Athlete
Z-Score: The number of standard deviations a prospect's pSPARQ score is above or below the mean (average NFL athlete). A Z-Score of 0.0 would equate to an average NFL player at a given position. This is essentially how much a guy stands apart from other NFL players at the same position. A good succinct explanation comes from Field Gulls:

Basically, a 1.0 z-score is an upper 16% NFL athlete, 2.0 is upper 2.5%, and 3.0 is upper 0.15%. This implies that if there are roughly 2000 players in the NFL, there are around 50 players with at least a 2.0 z-score.


Percentile: Another representation of the z-score that tells you where a given prospects SPARQ score places them in relation to their NFL position group peers. 50th percentile is an average NFL athlete, whereas a 99th percentile result ranks an athlete in the top 1% of that position group.

Class Rank: Where a given prospects pSPARQ score ranked in relation to the other members of their draft class position group.

Year 2: 2014 Draft

Round 1: Dee Ford - OLB (6'2" 245 lbs): Auburn

pSPARQ: 122.5 Z-Score: 0.6 NFL Percentile: 72.6% Class Rank: 20/113 LEO

Dee Ford was drafted based on raw potential and a killer first step. His SPARQ score largely backs this up putting Ford at roughly the 73rd percentile among NFL LEO's (remember this data is based on the Seattle Seahawks Defense) which roughly translates to an OLB in the Chiefs 3-4. Ford is a very good but not elite athlete for the position, unlike teammate Justin Houston (141.7 SPARQ) or classmates Khalil Mack (147.9) and Anthony Barr (142.0).

Round 3: Phillip Gaines - CB (6'1" 185 lbs): Rice

pSPARQ: 127.3 Z-Score: 1.3 NFL Percentile: 90.3% Class Rank: 10/213 CB

Phillip Gaines is a near elite athlete for the Cornerback position. He's got elite 4.38 speed and a solid 36" vertical. The SPARQ score largely confirms what we've seen from Gaines thus far, that he's got the physical tools to be a top corner he just needs to stay healthy.

Round 4: De'Anthony Thomas - WR/RB (5'10" 176 lbs): Oregon

pSPARQ: 113.5 Z-Score: 0.0 NFL Percentile: 50% Class Rank: 60/152 RB

De'Anthony Thomas is just an average athlete based on SPARQ. Remember, however, that his combine and pro-day numbers underwhelmed expectations. His featherweight also doesn't help his SPARQ cause. In both college and the pro's he's seemed to play faster in pads than his measureables indicate.

Round 5: Aaron Murray - QB (6'1" 207 lbs): Georgia

pSPARQ: N/A Z-Score: N/A NFL Percentile: N/A Class Rank: N/A

No data was available. Aaron Murray is a Quarterback, a position where SPARQ athleticism would be nice but is pretty far down the list of things that make a successful player. I'm not too perturbed about leaving him out of the data set.

Round 6: Zach Fulton - G (6'5" 234 lbs): Tennessee

pSPARQ: 85.5 Z-Score: -0.3 NFL Percentile: 38.2% Class Rank: 48/110 OG

Pretty much confirms what we already knew about Fulton: he is a slightly below average athlete; ranking in the 38th percentile for NFL Offensive Guards. He was drafted based on his pro-readiness, experience, good size, and solid technique. Fulton was a "set the floor" type of pick to provide a baseline level of play as a placeholder starter or solid backup level player. This was a pick to fill an immediate need and Fulton ended up being a 16 game starter at right guard his rookie season. The Chiefs went on to acquire numerous higher ceiling projects at the guard position.

Round 6: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif OT (6'5" 321 lbs): McGill

pSPARQ: 123.8 Z-Score: 2.2 NFL Percentile: 97.2% Class Rank: 4/102 OT

LDT was drafted, despite limited experience in Canadian football, based upon his sky high ceiling. The guy is a legitimate physical freak ranking in the 97th percentile of NFL Offensive Tackles. LDT compares favorably to some of the top tackles in the 2014 class ranking just behind 11th overall pick Taylor Lewan (129.3) and ahead of 2nd overall pick Greg Robinson (119.9). LDT's 123.8 SPARQ score ranks 1st among Guard prospects (his eventual NFL position) by an 8 point margin over 35th overall pick Joel Bitonio from Nevada (another converted college tackle). If LDT can get used to the game speed of the NFL he can be an absolute monster.

UDFA

Albert Wilson - WR (5'9" 201 lbs): Georgia State

pSPARQ: 118.5 Z-Score: 0.8 NFL Percentile: 78.8% Class Rank: 43/280 WR

Albert Wilson is a well above average athlete for the WR position in the NFL. Coming from a fledgling football program at Georgia State SPARQ confirmed that Wilson had the athletic ability to make it in the NFL. Picking him up as UDFA was great value for an eventual starting WR.

Jarrod Pughsley - OG (6'4" 210 lbs): Akron

pSPARQ: 113.6 Z-Score: 1.6 NFL Percentile: 94.5% Class Rank: 1/110 OG

Pughsley is a guy who has kicked around the Chiefs practice squad and back end of the 53 man roster since being picked up post draft. He's caught the eye of many Chiefs fans with his preseason play. He certainly looks the part and after a few years of development is likely looking at an expanded role next season. Pughsley certainly has the athletic ability to be a quality player for the Chiefs. He was the top rated offensive guard prospect in the 2014 class (and would have rated 10th amongst tackles). He's got the athletic ability to be a force for the Chiefs, quality pick up by John Dorsey.

Charcandrick West - RB (5'10" 205 lbs): Abilene Christian

pSPARQ: 131.7 Z-Score: 1.2 NFL Percentile: 88.5% Class Rank: 9/152 RB

Another of Dorsey's UDFA scores West's elite SPARQ score is likely what put him on Dorsey's radar in the first place. West got his chance last season and was a pleasant surprise for Chiefs fans earning himself a nice contract extension and along with Spencer Ware establishing the 1-2 punch that appears to be the heir apparent to Jamaal Charles.

Daniel Sorensen - S (6'2" 207 lbs): BYU

pSPARQ: 119.4 Z-Score: 0.6 NFL Percentile: 72.6% Class Rank: 42/200 S

This one actually surprised me. I've always viewed Sorenson as an athletically limited player, but SPARQ tells a different story. Sorenson is more than capable of holding up athletically against NFL competition. He's been a core ST player for the Chiefs since being drafted and played well in stints on the regular defense. He's a guy who could be in for an expanded role in 2016 with the departure of Branch and Abdullah.

Year 3: 2015 Draft

Round 1: Marcus Peters CB (6'0" 197 lbs): Washington

SPARQ: 117.0 Z-Score: 0.0 NFL Percentile: 49.0% Class Rank: 34/218 CB

Peter's SPARQ score won't knock your socks off, but it's plenty adequate. Peters is athletically "just average" for an NFL player. What makes him elite is his outstanding instincts and understanding of the game coupled with a healthy dose of confidence and swagger. Peters had outstanding tape and checked the SPARQ box as a capable NFL level athlete.

Round 2: Mitch Morse C (6'5" 305 lbs): Missouri

SPARQ: 115.1 Z-Score: 1.0 NFL Percentile: 84.7% Class Rank: 15/295 OL

Morse is a guy who shot up boards late in the process likely due in part to his impressive SPARQ showing. Morse grades out in the 85th percentile of NFL offensive lineman, which coupled with impressive college tape was enough for Dorsey to spend second round pick. While not the most popular selection amongst fans at the time Morse's impressive rookie campaign shows this to have been a great pick.

Round 3: Chris Conley WR (6'3" 205 lbs): Georgia

SPARQ: 141.8 Z-Score: 2.3 NFL Percentile: 98.8% Class Rank: 1/341 WR

Chris Conley is a flat out freak of nature. He's literally one of the best pure athletes in the NFL. The definition of uncommon traits. He's also extremely intelligent. While he's a project player, he has the physical ability to be a super star. Dorsey traded up to get him and if our coaching staff can develop Conley even close to his huge upside he'll be one of the most dangerous WR's in the NFL.

Round 3: Steven Nelson CB (5'11" 194 lbs): Oregon State

SPARQ: 115.8 Z-Score: -0.1 NFL Percentile: 44.4% Class Rank: 37/218 CB

Another corner whose only about average for his position (remember that is average compared to other NFL corners). Nelson had good tape and good offseason performances in the Senior Bowl. He doesn't have a mind blowing SPARQ score but he checks off the box as a capable athlete.

Round 4: Ramik Wilson ILB (6'2" 231 lbs): Georgia

SPARQ: 110.7 Z-Score: -0.8 NFL Percentile: 20.9% Class Rank: 89/241 LB

Ramik Wilson is something of an exception to Dorsey's general pattern. He's not a particularly great athlete for his position. The Chiefs were reportedly in love with Wilson as a prospect, a feeling that likely had more to do with Wilson's instincts and intangibles than his measureables. Wilson was still solidly in the top half of his class athletically but only in the 21st percentile when compared to his NFL peers. The Chiefs have drafted other athletically limited linebackers to play inside under John Dorsey (looking at you Nico Johnson), so it's likely that Dorsey (a former LB himself) may not weight pure athleticism as heavily for inside linebackers.

Round 5: D.J. Alexander ILB (6'2" 233 lbs): Oregon State

SPARQ: 127.8 Z-Score: 0.6 NFL Percentile: 72.8% Class Rank: 11/241 LB

DJ Alexander on the other hand is an above average athlete for the Linebacker position and was likely a flyer based on measureables and long term potential after an injury riddled college career. Thus far the speedy Alexander has been a Special Teams demon for the Chiefs, but he has the athletic ability to possibly develop into something more.

Round 5: James O'Shaughnessy TE (6'4" 245 lbs): Illinois State

SPARQ: 115.6 Z-Score: -.01 NFL Percentile: 45.0% Class Rank: 16/96 TE

O'Shaughnessy is another guy who is "only" an average NFL athlete, he checks the athleticism box but doesn't dazzle. He plays a position that is currently loaded with SPARQ standouts (where Kelce, Harris, and Parker all impress), so he'll likely have to fight for his playing time based on consistency and reliability as opposed to pure upside.

Round 6: Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT (6'2" 307 lbs): Southern Mississippi

SPARQ: 119.7 Z-Score: 0.6 NFL Percentile: 73.2% Class Rank: 13/176 DL

Another solidly above average athlete as a late round developmental pick. The impressive SPARQ score likely put Nunez-Roches on Dorsey's radar and indicates that at least athletically he's more than capable of holding his own in the NFL.

Round 7: DaRon Brown WR (6'0" 198 lbs): Northern Illinois

SPARQ: 117.9 Z-Score: 0.2 NFL Percentile: 57.5% Class Rank: 51/341 WR

Brown is a slightly above average athlete for the WR position in the NFL. Big mitts and reliability catching the football coupled with solid tape are likely what lead to Brown being selected in the 7th round. His SPARQ score gives confidence that he's capable of holding up athletically against NFL competition, an important evaluative criteria for a smaller school player.

UDFA

Justin March ILB (6'0" 223 lbs): Akron

SPARQ: 114.4 Z-Score: -0.5 NFL Percentile: 30.9% Class Rank: 66/241 LB

Another Inside Linebacker with slightly below average athleticism for the position but outstanding instincts. March turned out to be a training camp and preseason sensation, earning 1st team reps next to DJ before getting injured. March is a guy found through old fashioned scouting. His SPARQ score isn't horrible but it's not what made him stand out.

Daniel Munyer C/G (6'2" 291 lbs): Colorado

SPARQ: 106.9 Z-Score: 0.3 NFL Percentile: 63.7% Class Rank: 40/295 OL

Munyer has bounced on and off the back end of the Chiefs 53 man roster and practice squad. He's an above average athlete for the offensive line, and looks to be competing for a backup spot on the interior.

David Irving DE (6'7" 273 lbs): Iowa State

SPARQ: 130.0 Z-Score: 1.3 NFL Percentile: 91.1% Class Rank: 2/176 DL

It was character concerns that caused the raw but freakishly large and athletic Irving to go undrafted. Irving looked like a very promising project player for the Chiefs before he was poached from the Practice Squad by the Dallas Cowboys.

Laurence Gibson OT (6'6" 300 lbs): Virginia Tech

SPARQ: 121.3 Z-Score: 1.3 NFL Percentile: 90.2% Class Rank: 10/295 OL

Gibson was a 7th round pick of the Cowboys who Dorsey claimed off of waivers. Gibson is a top tier athlete with the ideal frame for the left tackle position standing 6'6" with 35" arms. Gibson needs to fill out his frame and add 15-20 pounds but his upside is through the roof.

Michael Liedtke C (6'3" 304 lbs): Illinois State

SARQ: 122.4 Z-Score: 1.6 NFL Percentile: 94.7% Class Rank: 7/295 OL

James O'Shaughnessy's college teammate is actually the far freakier athlete. Liedtke, a developmental center prospect, is a freak athlete for the position. Reid's has utilized freakish athletes at center before with Jason Kelce (and the Eric Kush experiment). Liedtke is a guy to keep an eye on.

Brian Parker TE (6'4" 265 lbs): Albany

SPARQ: 134.1 Z-Score: 1.3 NFL Percentile: 89.5% Class Rank: 1/96 TE

Another John Dorsey waiver wire claim, this time from the San Diego Chargers. Parker is a SPARQ stud and the highest rated Tight End in the 2015 class. Considering Parker played at tiny Albany, his SPARQ score is likely what put him on Dorsey's radar and lent support that the small school prospect could play on Sundays.

Takeaways

  • The Kansas City Chiefs under GM John Dorsey have only ever drafted one player with a SPARQ Score below the 100 point threshold, Offensive Guard Zach Fulton (85.5) in the 6th round. Fulton's play has largely confirmed what SPARQ indicated he's got good size and technique but is a below average athlete for the NFL.
  • Chiefs acquisitions have, on average, ranked in the Top 13% of their draft class within their respective position groups in SPARQ athleticism. They've never drafted a player in the bottom half of their draft class position group in SPARQ.
  • Of the 24 players analyzed 7 (29%) ranked in the Top 10 of their draft class position group in SPARQ athleticism. Another 5 graded out within the Top 20; meaning that 12 of the Chiefs 24 acquisitions (50%) ranked within the Top 20 of their Draft Class position group in SPARQ score. 3 were the top ranked player.
  • On average Chiefs acquisitions (drafted and UDFA/Waiver Claim) ranked in the 71st Percentile when compared to their NFL peers, wIth an average Z-Score of .73 standard deviations above the mean.
  • 4 of Dorsey's 7 Offensive Line acquisitions graded out in the 90th percentile or above when compared to their NFL peers. A fifth, Mitch Morse, also graded out highly at 85th percentile compared to NFL peers.
  • The Chiefs have never drafted a player with a SPARQ Score more than 1 standard deviation below the mean. Ramik Wilson is the lowest rated player drafted with a Z-Score of -0.8. Only 2 other players Justin March (-0.5) and Zach Fulton (-0.3) have Z-Scores more than -0.1 standard deviation below the mean. The Chiefs are just not drafting or retaining players who are not at least average athletes compared to their NFL peers.
  • The relative value the Chiefs place on SPARQ seems to vary by position. Dorsey appears to value SPARQ more for Offensive Line prospects than than he does for Inside Linebackers for example.
Based on this, I would say the results back up Dorsey's own statements. The Chiefs are using some sort of SPARQ-esque metric to vet players. When looking for potential Chiefs targets we would be wise to take a look at SPARQ scores both to identify potential late round gems and to eliminate top prospects who don't have the requisite baseline athleticism. I'll try to do a couple more posts leading up to the draft highlighting potential SPARQ gems on both offense and defense.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.