FanPost

24 Points Makes a Huge Difference

As I was waiting in line Thursday night to leave Arrowhead, I heard a crazy stat on 610 AM on the post game show:
Alex Smith is 3-38-1 when the opposing team scores 24 points. Wow, is this true, I wondered? Is that even a significant stat if it is true? What does it say about the QB's ability? I went through his career record and counted the contests for myself. I did the math, and by my count, it is accurate. This means that in any game where a team can score 4 times, the Chiefs only have a 7% chance of winning the game with Alex Smith under center. You may be wondering is 24 points a meaningful total? In 2014, the PPG Average was 22.6, meaning 24 would win just over half your games, theoretically. You may recall that the last regular season game with a WR Touchdown was 12/29/2013 when Chase Daniel found Dexter McCluster in a 27-24 OT heartbreaker. There is no sample size large enough to show what Chase or Aaron Murray can do vs 24. How do Alex Smith's numbers compare to other NFL Quarterbacks? I decided to research it and put it on display for everyone to see. All the numbers are from Pro-Football-Reference.com and should be within 1 game of current, since I started compiling these numbers prior to Sunday. I tried to pick any and every QB anyone might want to compare to Alex Smith who has been starting at least 2 seasons, or who is considered Great or a Super Bowl winning Game Manager. No QB I looked at has a winning record against 24 points, but Tom Brady is now 1 game under .500 for his career.

QB Records when Opposition scored at least 24 Points

Career Games W- L-T Winning % vs 24 Points

Tom Brady 240 42-43-0 49%

Joe Montana 201 24-29-0 45%

Peyton Manning 282 45-71-0 39%

Aaron Rodgers 125 18-29-0 38%

Andrew Luck 55 11-17-0 38%

Colin Kaepernick 56 6-10-1 38%

Phillip Rivers 159 20-37-0 35%

Kurt Warner 138 21-42-0 33%

Andy Dalton 69 8-18-1 30%

Matt Stafford 81 10-33-0 23%

Matt Ryan 116 17-38-0 31%

Tony Romo 158 20-45-0 31%

Drew Brees 215 32-71-0 31%

Jim McMahon 129 9-20-0 31%

Jay Cutler 123 14-40-0 26%

Geno Smith 30 4-13-0 24%

B Roethlisberger 175 14-36-0 28%

Trent Green 122 19-45-0 30%

Elvis Grbac 113 08-21-0 28%

Dan Marino 260 24-73-0 25%

Eli Manning 181 20-63-0 24%

Matt Cassel 97 11-33-0 25%

Roger Staubach 151 10-26-0 28%

Steve Young 191 15-36-0 30%

Brett Favre 326 35-83-0 30%

Brad Johnson 185 13-46-0 22%

Len Dawson 177 11-41-2 20%

Terry Bradshaw 187 8-34-0 19%

Russell Wilson 58 2-11-0 15%

Carson Palmer 147 10-59-0 14%

Steve Bono 93 3-18-0 14%

Ryan Tannehill 49 2-15-0 12%

Trent Dilfer 136 5-37-0 12%

Cam Newton 66 3-24-1 11%

Alex Smith 115 3-38-1 7%

As you can see, no other Quarterback on this list has lost more than 89% of their games against 24 points.
Do you think this stat is a good benchmark of a starting Quarterback's ability to win tough games, or do you think it signifies nothing of any real importance?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.