As I was waiting in line Thursday night to leave Arrowhead, I heard a crazy stat on 610 AM on the post game show:
Alex Smith is 3-38-1 when the opposing team scores 24 points. Wow, is this true, I wondered? Is that even a significant stat if it is true? What does it say about the QB's ability? I went through his career record and counted the contests for myself. I did the math, and by my count, it is accurate. This means that in any game where a team can score 4 times, the Chiefs only have a 7% chance of winning the game with Alex Smith under center. You may be wondering is 24 points a meaningful total? In 2014, the PPG Average was 22.6, meaning 24 would win just over half your games, theoretically. You may recall that the last regular season game with a WR Touchdown was 12/29/2013 when Chase Daniel found Dexter McCluster in a 27-24 OT heartbreaker. There is no sample size large enough to show what Chase or Aaron Murray can do vs 24. How do Alex Smith's numbers compare to other NFL Quarterbacks? I decided to research it and put it on display for everyone to see. All the numbers are from Pro-Football-Reference.com and should be within 1 game of current, since I started compiling these numbers prior to Sunday. I tried to pick any and every QB anyone might want to compare to Alex Smith who has been starting at least 2 seasons, or who is considered Great or a Super Bowl winning Game Manager. No QB I looked at has a winning record against 24 points, but Tom Brady is now 1 game under .500 for his career.
QB Records when Opposition scored at least 24 Points
Career Games W- L-T Winning % vs 24 Points
Tom Brady 240 42-43-0 49%
Joe Montana 201 24-29-0 45%
Peyton Manning 282 45-71-0 39%
Aaron Rodgers 125 18-29-0 38%
Andrew Luck 55 11-17-0 38%
Colin Kaepernick 56 6-10-1 38%
Phillip Rivers 159 20-37-0 35%
Kurt Warner 138 21-42-0 33%
Andy Dalton 69 8-18-1 30%
Matt Stafford 81 10-33-0 23%
Matt Ryan 116 17-38-0 31%
Tony Romo 158 20-45-0 31%
Drew Brees 215 32-71-0 31%
Jim McMahon 129 9-20-0 31%
Jay Cutler 123 14-40-0 26%
Geno Smith 30 4-13-0 24%
B Roethlisberger 175 14-36-0 28%
Trent Green 122 19-45-0 30%
Elvis Grbac 113 08-21-0 28%
Dan Marino 260 24-73-0 25%
Eli Manning 181 20-63-0 24%
Matt Cassel 97 11-33-0 25%
Roger Staubach 151 10-26-0 28%
Steve Young 191 15-36-0 30%
Brett Favre 326 35-83-0 30%
Brad Johnson 185 13-46-0 22%
Len Dawson 177 11-41-2 20%
Terry Bradshaw 187 8-34-0 19%
Russell Wilson 58 2-11-0 15%
Carson Palmer 147 10-59-0 14%
Steve Bono 93 3-18-0 14%
Ryan Tannehill 49 2-15-0 12%
Trent Dilfer 136 5-37-0 12%
Cam Newton 66 3-24-1 11%
Alex Smith 115 3-38-1 7%