FanPost

Will Alex Smith and the Chiefs Receivers Lead the League in Drops This Year?

MY GAWD!! DROPS!?! Why would he even say that…

Come along, and I'll tell you.

You don't know me, but I know you — well, most of you. I've been an avid reader of Arrowhead Pride over the last year and change. Lurking in the comments, munching on the mailbag. You might think from the title of this piece that I am a Chiefs hater, or a doom and gloom-er, but I promise you I'm neither of those things. I am one of "those people"; a 49er fan who appreciated Alex Smith's game enough to follow him after he left that organization. (Although, full disclosure, I've also been fond of the Chiefs since the mid '90s when [1] Joe Montana, in all his Chiefs uniform glory, graced the cover of NFL Football '94, a game which practically lived in my Sega Genesis, and [2] my dad praised the Chiefs as a "smart and damn classy organization" for going after Joe and Marcus Allen after they, respectively, had been aging-injured and completely mishandled by a certain pirate-themed Bay Area sports hell-hole.) In addition to the above, one other thing I am undoubtedly and without hope is an exemplary case of football nerdery.

One of the great (and maddening) things about football is the way it lends itself to endless scrutiny and debate. Because of its complexity, it's a nightmare figuring out exactly what's going on during any given play. A dilemma only slightly soothed by the modern advantage of things like All-22 film. And the only thing more confusing than film, is stats.

Where do Alex Smith and all these drops play into that? Well, by late November 2011, SF was in the middle of one of those magical seasons the likes of which Chiefs fans have so recently been able to appreciate. We were now months into the "hey, you know something, Alex Smith actually doesn't totally blow" portion of his career. Something was amiss, though. Something nagging in the 9er subconscious.

Namely, what in the HAYL is with all these drops?

It was infuriating. Like the SF receivers greased up their hands before the game. The first time I noticed a media outlet mentioning it was this piece by Kevin Lynch in the SF Gate. The general drift of that piece? 'A. Smith's wide receivers are indeed letting him down.'

The angle made sense considering the SF wide receiving corps featured Michael Crabtree and a bunch of also-rans. (Not including Vernon Davis, because I said 'wide receiving corps' and dammit I will not be Jimmy Graham-ed!) The next year, the additions of Mario Manningham (mostly injured) and Randy Moss (perhaps about 67% bone dust by that point) didn't seem to help, subjectively speaking. Despite one or two outstanding offensive performances, mostly in week 5 at Buffalo and week 8 at the Cardinals, the drops still felt palpable. In October of 2012, Mike Sando over at ESPN's NFC west blog wrote an intersting post:

The 49ers are on pace to finish with 44 drops ... That would be 11 more drops than the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns suffered while setting the league high in 2011, when the 49ers had 27. Delanie Walker leads the 49ers with three drops. Crabtree and Vernon Davis have two apiece. Bruce Miller, Randy Moss, Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter have the others. The 49ers have suffered drops on 10.1 percent of targets this season, worst in the NFL. They ranked last in 2011 with drops on 6.4 percent of targets.

Sure, drops of any kind are excruciating for any fan of any team, but again the 49ers were in the upper echelon of the league. And you know, this is, like, NOT one of these stats you want to lead in.

Fast forward to fall 2013. Smith had been concussed, benched, traded. And a certain well-known lawyer/logic troll around these parts was doing an exploratory write-up on Mr. Smith. An article in which the word "drop" or some form of it appears 12 different times — although to be fair, one of those was in the phrase "drops a '55 yards in the air' bomb".

Meanwhile all the Alex fans are like, "THANK YOU!"

But then something unsettling happened. The Chiefs 2013 season started, new page, new team, new coach, and all new receivers. As the season went on, lo and behold, the Chiefs were one of the league leaders in, you guessed it, DROPS! It's enough to give a sports fan heart palpitations.

Now, some might argue that it's because the Chiefs wide receiving corps that season featured Dwayne Bowe and a bunch of also-rans, not to mention a scrappy tight end group mostly cobbled together from things laying around John Dorsey's garage.

Frankly though, I've started to wonder. Before I say this next part, keep in mind I'm an admitted Smith fan, but… Could it be Alex's fault?

"WHAT THE HELL MAN? HE CAN'T THROW THE BALL AND CATCH IT!!!" Or so the saying goes, right? But keep with me here.

Drops is an interesting stat, simple on the face but with a lot of variables involved. For the purposes of this discussion, the most important thing is to remember that drops are your basic absolute stat. It's not a percentage or abstract or some crazy voodoo-Frankenstein-post-modern-mystery integer like ESPN's QBR.

Drops are one of those "numbers like you learned 'em in grade school" situations. How many times did a wide receiver drop a catchable ball during the game? Three? Okay, then three is your number of drops; or about one every 16 minutes of football that day.

Did you notice it? I snuck it in there. The key phrase is "catchable ball".

There are a lot of opinions/criticisms/controversies about Mr. Smith floating around the interwebs. But no longer is one of them whether or not Smith is accurate. Now, I don't wake up in the morning for the sole purpose of polishing Alex Smith's ego. I can actually tell you, specifically, that at times he seems to put the ball way up high unnecessarily. But in general, at this stage in his career, Smith puts the ball on or very near the money.

I first really, fully realized it while watching that 2012 SF at Arizona game. From the other AP, Associated Press:

Three touchdown passes, one incomplete pass.
Not a bad night for Alex Smith, and it could have been better, considering that the one incomplete pass was dropped by a wide-open receiver.
The San Francisco quarterback completed 18 of 19 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns...

The stats only do partial justice to that game. This particular TD to Crabtree hinted at the two's growth and potential together; a quick, confident, beautifully placed ball up high where Crabby had a great chance to snatch it over the significantly shorter cornerback.



Halfway through that 2012 season, Smith had a 70% completion clip, a feat which, if he'd been able to carry it out through a whole season, would have put him in company with select few other quarterbacks in history. Smith was also accurate in college, 66.3% career for the Utes. Going all the way back to the high school level, Smith set the second all-time highest completion percentage (66%) in San Diego CIF section history. As the 2013 season went on I also noticed Smith developing accuracy chemistry with Bowe, particularly on slants, such as here:



(Side note: If you've got yourself an accurate QB, you've gotta love a big ol' dude like Bowe who can absolutely, crushingly box out the corner. What a thing of beauty. Never had that in San Francisco.)

So let's put this to rest: It's not a fluke. It's a fact. Alex Smith is an accurate mofo. In turn, a lot of things might be going into accuracy itself. For instance, it's hard to complete a pass when you make the wrong read? And who knows what else.

Smith's accuracy is going to mean he throws a lot more "catchable balls", especially in the second year of the same system with an excellent offensive coach, and receivers who are also getting more familiar with that same system. Yet the reality is that receivers just are not going to catch every single ball thrown their way, even the catchable ones. So, will Smith and the Chiefs receivers lead the leagues in drops this upcoming year?

I could see it. While another team might just suffer the indignity of an incompletion, Mr. 'On Or Near the Money' and company will, relatively more often, give you the added bonus-gut-spasm of a blatant drop. Now exacerbate the whole thing by accounting for Andy Reid's pass heavy offense.

Perhaps a high absolute number, as well as a high subjective perception of drops, will haunt Mr. Smith so long as he continues to be so accurate. Perverse yet beautiful?

See now... wasn't that at least a little bit more comforting than you expected? Additionally, a more complex stat, like PFF's drop percentage, could better illuminate the situation. But that would probably be of little subjective consolation to your shattered nerves on game day.

Thanks for tuning in! What do you think? Will the Chiefs be a drops machine this year? How many can they pull off? One per quarter? 11 per game?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.