FanPost

The Value of Alex: Wins or Stats???

Let’s get this out of the way: in no way will I compare the recent Andy Dalton deal to what we expect Alex Smith to make… or not make. The new deal for Dalton falls in line with the recent deal that Colin Kaepernick received. Both of these deals sound big by their titles, but are basically broken into modest miniature one-year contracts; heavy with bonus and incentive pay. In other words: they are not what they seem. My discussion concerning Alex Smith is more about a perceived level of value; a value that relates to how much of the annual salary cap the Kansas City Chiefs are willing to pay for the player that happens to be starting at the quarterback position. I hope the below explains why…

I am a firm believer that the game of American football is the most team-oriented sport in the world. This opinion is based on how frequently all the players must "orchestrate" a play in football. This is important when talking about how much a team values each player, at each position, when cutting up the current $133 million. And when it comes to arguably the most influential position in all sports; getting the quarterback’s salary correct is most critical. So, how much value does Alex Smith have to the Chiefs organization?

First off, let’s stop comparing the salaries of other team’s quarterbacks; that’s for the agents to squabble over. However, I do believe that the highly referenced Jake Cutler, for the Chicago Bears, is outrageously over-paid; yet, apparently the Bears believe he is highly valuable to them. I believe that Alex Smith, if had been a free agent interest to the Bears, would had probably received a very similar contract from Chicago as well. It’s simply what they are willing to pay for tying up the position. But, honestly, Cutler has been junk for a while and hasn’t accomplished a thing. Which is why comparing QB salaries, from different teams, should be mute. Moving on…

Using the last three seasons of quarterback play (which is reasonable for evaluating any athlete’s new contract), Alex has acquired an efficient set of passing statistics and a 30-9-1 record as a starter. Many have attributed his wins as a result of the coaches and team around him. However, let’s first focus on the "modest" throwing stats that people attach in labeling him a modest QB. How did Colin Kaepernick perform as the 2013 San Francisco 49ers quarterback; under the same head coach, same defense, and same running game that Smith had? How did Alex Smith measure up in KC? And let’s throw in Seattle’s Russell Wilson too (which I will relate in a bit)…

2013 Kaepernick: 58.4 cmp%, 3197 yds pass, 21 TDs, 8 INTs, 524 yds rush w/ 4 TDs.

2013 Smith: 60.6 cmp%, 3313 yds pass, 23 TDs, 7 INTs, 431 yds rush w/ 1 TD.

2013 Wilson: 63.1 cmp%, 3357 yds pass, 26 TDs, 9 INTs, 539 yds rush w/ 1 TD.

For me, that’s a statistical push. But, the problem I have as a Kansas City Chiefs fan when it comes to discussing the value of Alex Smith is that no one is stating that Colin Kaepernick’s, or Russell Wilson’s, performance was due to his coaching, supporting defense, and run game. It’s about Colin. It’s about Russell. This becomes hypocritical when evaluating quarterback play, or Alex Smith specifically… in a team sport.

I think both Kaepernick and Wilson are pretty good and dynamic quarterbacks. Hypothetically, I think that if they played for the Saints or Broncos they would have much higher numbers in yards, touchdowns, AND interceptions. Why? Because those are passing teams. If either were with the Seahawks, Chiefs, or Niners, they could all have similar numbers. How many pass attempts did these three teams attempt last season? Wilson 407, Smith 508, Kaepernick 416. We all know that many of Alex Smith’s passes are screens to Jamaal Charles (aka, Extended Handoffs). So, how many did the Broncos and Saints attempt? Peyton 659, Brees 650. This shows that the teams have very different offensive schemes. Does this make Kaepernick and Wilson poor quarterbacks or simply passers in a non-passing scheme? QB stats can be subjective to the type of system ran. And all 5 of the above teams have good coaching. So, a good quarterback can be either a stat king or an efficient passer; because they all end up with the win anyhow.

Using the above in the valuation of Alex Smith, is the 30-9 Win-Loss record acquired a result of Alex’s play or the surrounding cast? With the previous paragraphs displaying how a team’s scheme can distort the statistical "value" of a quarterback; I still believe that the Win-Loss record reigns supreme. If we say that the NFL quarterback is the most important position in all sports and has the most impact towards a team’s success, then how can one NOT include wins and losses as a considerable factor in determining a QB’s value? We can’t state that Alex has only had success due to the coaching and cast, in two different cities; then go on to say that Kaepernick, Wilson, Peyton, and Brees win on their own accolades. Of course, these last four players are great athletes with much to contribute towards their team’s success. Yet, tell me why Peyton went to Denver during his free agency? A lot has to do with the roster. Denver was already a good team before his arrival… they simply had Tim Tebow holding them back. And we all know with the eye-test that Tebow didn’t win that playoff game. His team kept him in it and he made the one critical completion to a receiver that ran the best he had ever run in his life. Can we apply the same to Alex… when a fumble cost him a trip to the Superbowl as a 49er?

It’s about wins. That’s why Tom Brady’s statement earlier this year caused such a discussion. That’s why Offensive and Defensive rankings via Yards Gained/Allowed per Game is trash. It’s about points gained/allowed per game. Which then determines who wins or loses. Which ends with Wins versus Losses. A quarterback with great stats doesn’t always equal wins; yet, a QB with a winning record always does. And I believe that quarterbacks playing in different systems, doing his job in a team sport, should always be awarded the wins or losses achieved as the team’s leader and signal-caller.

When we sit back and watch the Chiefs simply let #11 play this season and then use the franchise tag on him for 2015 (which I think will happen); we will have to watch how well he contributes to the system he has been asked to play in. This should answer all the questions. As a safe and efficient passer, in a heavy running attack offense and strong pass rush defense, will Alex Smith incur wins or losses? And then, when KC has to decide on a future contract, which is more important: valuing your QB on stats or wins? I’ll take a winner on my team any day of the week. You?


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.