FanPost

How Do We View Alex Smith?

*DISCLAIMER: I am not saying that Alex Smith is a Hall of Fame quarterback. And you just can’t go to the HOF QB outlet and pick one up. Just want to clear that up ahead of time. Now…

I am an Alex Smith supporter. I know many Chiefs fans are the same, but I mean it in the opposite way from those that support Alex Smith just because he’s the current Chiefs quarterback, doesn’t put up fantasy numbers, and actually wouldn’t mind seeing him go. I’m the Alex Anti-Hater. I have the philosophy that Alex Smith has a set of tools that would only be popular prior to 1993. And I believe that the systems that Alex has played in call for the quarterback (no matter whom that is) to play in a more conservative, efficient, and secure manner. This does not lead to video game numbers. Yet, it does lead to great possession and low turnover rate.

Alex Smith had a 1.3% interception rate in 2013. Alex Smith had a great TD-to-INT ratio last season. And with Alex Smith at the helm over the past 3 years, in two different systems, he has acquired a 30-9-1 record. You can argue all day about how much a win/loss record counts, but how many times do we mention the ability to win when it comes to measuring a QB? All the time.

The 610 AM sports radio team from the afternoon lineup, The Drive, did their own research on a certain passing statistic yesterday. With an interesting lead, emphasizing how many of Alex Smith’s 2013 passes were short passes last year, 10 yards or less (no YAC); they were curious how this lined up with other starting QBs in the league.

In 2013, 72% of Alex’s passes were in the air for 10 yards or less. This was the second highest percentage of all starting quarterbacks in the league. The number one leader in short passing? Peyton Manning… 77%. The other QBs to round out the top five in this category? Russell Wilson (69.5%), Andrew Luck (67.9%), and Tom Brady sitting 5th with the most passes going 10yds or less to their receivers. Let that simmer for a bit.

As fans, we focus a lot on how big the stats should be to be considered an elite, or franchise, quarterback. How did some of those quarterbacks, with a similar 10-yard pass rate, end up with much more yardage at season’s end than Alex Smith? It’s clearly due to the biggest weakness this Kansas Chiefs team has, and that most fans have complained about… the lack of a good receiving corps. Even though Peyton threw many more times than Alex; he had top shelf receivers that accumulated the league’s most yards after the catch. Outside of Jamal Charles, the Chiefs had no one that could gain yardage after making the grab.

Something else that gets attached to Alex is his "lack of arm strength" or deep ball. I found a study on Deadspin, by sportswriter Reuben Fischer-Baum; that focuses on the long ball discussion in the league. His research, using statistics from Pro Football Focus, shows multiple charts focusing on the deep ball by quarterbacks the last six seasons (2008-13). This is ball in the air statistics. Alex Smith was 31st in the number of 20+ yard target throws during this time; at only 9.1%. Simply meaning that he either chose, or the play was designed, to pass to a receiver 20 or more yards downfield only 9.1% of his pass attempts. Now, considering whether the play was designed to go deep or not, it’s the accuracy of that deep pass when thrown in which the quarterback has control. Computing how many 20+ yard throws were actually on target (completed + dropped); Reuben compiles numbers to show a more correct interpretation of QBs throwing long. Are you surprised to see that Alex is 9th in the league, at 43.7%? More accurate on the deep ball than Peyton, Brady, Rivers, or Romo? So, where does this deep ball myth about Alex come from? Again, I think it’s simply the systems he’s been in. That’s the reason why he shows up as being so low on actual attempts, yet he has a considerably high completion of those deep ball attempts, when attempted.

Evidence of deep ball accuracy and arm strength: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0mJZB2v-og

And evidence of getting the ball to the right player: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTmBvPg-Kto

Now, if we are going to say that Alex Smith is not worthy of a franchise QB contract, due to certain numbers not being as high as they should; who is to actually blame? I know that this line of thinking could be argued many ways, yet I think that when a QB plays in a system that inherently reduces his statistical gains, how much can we blame the QB for not having 4,500 yards and 38 touchdowns each season? Add in how many teams Andy Reid has ever produced with big number QBs, along with how Colin Kaepernick performed in the same 49er system last year and it becomes clearer. Then combine the fact that Alex lacks playmakers on the receiving end of those designed passes; shouldn’t we be focused on how well Alex manages the offense with what he has? That he makes the best decisions possible? Winning, protecting the ball, and being consistently efficient have to carry some real weight. We can keep hoping for a gunslinger to bust into Arrowhead Saloon; but then we’ll simply complain when that QB tries to throw a risky pass into double-coverage that gets picked off and ends our season. Or we can appreciate the skillset Alex brings to the team and understand that if needed and called upon, Smith can step out of the system and actually deliver.

REF:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2013/

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-yards-after-catch-statistics/2013/

http://regressing.deadspin.com/charts-who-are-the-best-deep-passers-in-the-nfl-1469917039

http://media.610sports.com/a/95854960/8-20-4pm-joel-thorman-cdot-s-college-fb-timeout.htm?pageid=491425

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03.htm

http://www.profootballfocus.com/




This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.