FanPost

Predicting the Chiefs Season and the SOS Myth

Am I a Chiefs fan? Yes. Am I happy that every sports pundit on God’s green turf is picking the Kansas City Chiefs to take a step back this year? Of course not… but, it’s not for the reason you may think. General Manager John Dorsey didn’t make any big news during free agency. Many teams didn’t. Teams like the Denver Broncos went all haywire with buying up available talent. Other teams did, too. However, I didn’t see much take place in the AFC West during free agency that would have derailed anyone’s initial guess on how the Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders will finish the coming 2014 campaign.

Before the start of the 2013 season, there were predictions for how all the teams might do based on previous season’s Strength Of Schedule (SOS). http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000137115/article/teambyteam-strength-of-schedule-for-2013. The entire AFC West Division played a SOS that sat in the bottom five spots; with Kansas City technically holding the strongest schedule to face. And now we are all at it again; determining who will wear the crown next February based on the SOS of teams’ opponents via last season. http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/4/23/5642204/2014-nfl-schedule-raiders-broncos-colts-panthers. Unlike the previous year, now all four teams sit in the top eight spots for having the strongest schedule to face (#1, 2, 4, 7).

Now, try to add in the SOS before the 2012 season to give perspective to how teams actually finished the 2012 season (http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56896/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule); which gave their level of strength going into the next season. Teams that were good before, may not be good now, which means the SOS previously assigned to all the other teams’ schedules is no longer valid; thus, creating an endless circular domino effect… distorting the whole freakin’ mess. Notice how I italicize the term strongest and strength? I’m not a big fan of assigning a level of strength to a team based on who they play. This isn’t college football. The Seahawks aren't playing the Jayhawks in 2014. All National Football League teams have the best players in the world on their rosters. Hence, the clichéd phrase…

As scheduling goes, each team will play their division opponents twice, each division is on a rotating basis with all the other divisions within the same conference, along with a division from the other conference, and then there’s a matchup between two teams in the same conference that finished in a similar place. This means, as you look at any SOS ranking you’ll find most teams from the same division are frequently grouped relatively close to one another.

Why the lesson in scheduling? Because, when I hear that the Chiefs will take a step back in 2014 due to a stronger SOS, yet the other teams in the AFC West will improve; it begs to wonder how it is possible if the SOS increases or decreases in nearly the same interval for every team. This is where the myth lies. Or as I like to call it: "Lazy Analyzation". Sure, it’s hard to analyze every team, their off-season moves, the new schedule, and the thousand other variables that determine how a team may play throughout a season. Yet, it doesn’t mean you can simply say, "Oh, well they were X last year and now they play teams that were X+1 last year, this year, so they must be X-1 this year." Sorry, for the algebra… that came out of nowhere.

With this SOS logic, couldn’t any of the AFC West teams (which now have to play the NFC West in 2014) be under the same warning? Sorry, San Diego, you’re simply going to have a worse season because of the increased SOS. Can’t do anything about it. Might as well just go surfing and bar crawl the Gaslamp. Then the contradiction slides in. What about Denver? We all know they are a top five team in 2014, but I don’t need the SOS to tell me so. However, if the NFC West scheduling is going to make the Chiefs worse in 2014, how are the Broncos not affected? I know how: because the pundits simply ignore the SOS for them. It’s Lazy Analyzation… I mean easier.

Oh, and don’t get me going about why the NFC West is so mighty and powerful when they have to play the AFC West division this year. In 2013, the AFC West finished with three teams with the best records in the top 12; plus, sent three to the playoffs. Remember how I said the Chiefs and their fellow divisional teams occupy four of the eight strongest SOS spots this coming season? Take a gander at what four teams are sitting at #3, 5, 6, and 8? The NFC West teams! Using that math again, the Chiefs will suffer, but not the Broncos; and the NFC West, having to play the AFC West will be just fine. Huh? You can keep you SOS… I’ll keep using the eye test.



This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.