It’s an exciting week. Players are converging on St Joe. The Equipment guys are ready to go and probably exhausted already. There are 2 major contracts out there that need to be addressed. As Citadel wrote, a decision on Alex Smith is necessary in order to move the team forward.
That decision should be to wait and not sign Smith in 2014.
Alex Smith is walking the walk and has now "gone loud" with his public statements. Justin Houston, on the other hand, has voiced his displeasure with his current contract loud and clear by skipping franchises off-season activities and footing the heavy fines associated with his absence. Houston is represented by Joel Segal. His reputation is for being a very tough negotiator while not being quite as publicly aggressive as Smith’s repesentative Tom Condon. He is a formidable agent, but could be seen by the Chiefs as more likely to get a deal done.
Houston - 21 sacks in the last 2 seasons
The Chiefs are in a tough spot. The biggest weapon available to John Dorsey is the Franchise tag. The Franchise tag could allow the front office to sign one of these two players while still being able to retain the other for the 2015 season. The commonly held expectation is that Smith will sign a new contract somewhere in the 18M-20M range. His recent media interviews are a tool being used to get to that level. The Chiefs could sign Smith to a deal in that range and look to use the Franchise tag on Houston, but that is not in the team’s best interest long term.
The 2015 OLB franchise tag is estimated to be roughly 11.8M (slightly larger than the 2014 tag at 11.45M given to Brian Orakpo). However, Houston has been strong in his demand for a new contract for 2014 and delaying his contract. Flexing the team’s muscle by applying the Franchise Tag could result in a situation where Houston does not want to return to Kansas City. If the Chiefs were to alienate and lose one of the premier pass rushers in the league, the damage could last far beyond the positives of signing Smith. Dealing with a prolonged, confrontational contract negotiation for Houston would also distract the team’s focus on the upcoming contract for Eric Berry.
The alternative is to pursue a new contract for Houston. Houston is by far the younger player. He has also progressed to Pro Bowl level much faster than Smith. Both of these facts contribute to the probability that Houston will have a much longer career playing at an elite level than Smith is capable of. The Houston contract would therefore be structured to maximize the chance of it being played through and would be likely 5 to 6 years in length. At that point, with Houston being 30 years old, the Chiefs could allow him to hit the free market and still have a chance to re-sign him at a reasonable cap number or let him walk. This will be the biggest contract of Houston’s career and will likely not leave much in cap room without backloading the contract dramatically.
A Houston contract will likely mark the end of Tamba Hali’s career with the Chiefs. The loss of his salary would make using the 2015 franchise tag on Alex Smith a possibility. The Franchise tag Quarterback salary for 2015 is estimated to be around 16.2M. I am a proponent of Alex Smith. I value his leadership, his resilience and his demeanor and athleticism. But, to me, he is a high 2nd tier QB the team can win playoff games with and he’s worth no more than a 14M/yr contract. The franchise tag, even at 16.2M, would allow the Chiefs to postpone, by one year, a long-term commitment to Smith while allowing Andy Reid to evaluate Aaron Murray and see if he can be a franchise quarterback.
Houston is the future and has to be the priority. Houston is on the verge, if not already, an elite NFL player. Tamba Hali is already 30 years old and Dee Ford was drafted to play opposite Houston. Signing Houston now will be cheaper than allowing him to play 2014 under current contract because he will likely perform well enough to earn another Pro Bowl. If he does, Houston will have teams lining up to sign him away from the Chiefs in free agency. Using the Franchise tag on Houston may not be enough to get him to re-sign in Kansas City and could even lead to a standoff situation similar to Orakpo’s with Washington.
Justin Houston should be the priority signing for the Kansas City Chiefs. Do the Chiefs and Dorsey agree with that? Or does Andy Reid’s opinion trump everything? We will likely find out during Chiefs training camp.