FanPost

How Many Wins Will Denver Have in 2014?


Like any good Chiefs fan I loathe Denver (I just capitalized it, I know, but I didn't want to offend the grammar Nazis). So with my hatred of Denver I began thinking just how many wins will they actually get this season coming off the Super Bowl loss (rape) to the Seahawks? I decided to take a look at previous SuperBowl losers and where they ended up the next season, totals wins and if they made or missed the playoffs. I didn't look beyond this to their playoff success if they made it, only whether they did or not and if it was as division winner or wild card.

Here is the data I came up with taken from NFL.com charts and spreadsheets:

Year Lost SuperBowl

Team Who Lost

Record Year Lost

Record Following Year

Playoff Status

Change in Wins

2014

Broncos

13-3

?

?

?

2013

Ravens

10-6

8-8

Missed

-2

2012

Patriots

13-3

12-4

DW

-1

2011

Steelers

12-4

12-4

Playoffs

0

2010

Colts

14-2

10-6

DW

-4

2009

Cardinals

9-7

10-6

DW

+1

2008

Patriots

16-0

11-5

Missed

-5

2007

Bears

13-3

7-9

Missed

-6

2006

Seahawks

13-3

9-7

DW

-4

2005

Eagles

13-3

6-10

Missed

-7

2004

Panthers

11-5

7-9

Missed

-4

2003

Raiders

11-5

4-12

Missed

-7

2002

Rams

14-2

7-9

Missed

-7

2001

Giants

12-4

7-9

Missed

-5

2000

Titans

13-3

13-3

DW

0

1999

Falcons

14-2

5-11

Missed

-9

*DW = Division Winner

-----------------

Repeat Playoffs and Division Winners = 6 /15 = 40%

Missed Playoffs = 9 /15 = 60%

Last 5 years = 80% playoff returner

-----------------

Average Drop in Wins over 15 years = -4 wins

Average Drop in Wins over Last 5 years = -1.2 wins

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So what we see is actually less inspiring than I thought. If you take the average over 15 years you might be excited that Denver would only be due up to win 9 games this season; however, the recent 5 year average puts them at about 11 or 12 wins.

Looking into this the Patriots from 2008 really screwed the average with a drop in 5 wins to 11-5 and still not making the playoffs but then there were some really terrible years beyond that the farther you look into the past with the Eagles, Raiders, Rams, and Falcons really dropping the ball the next year. Problem is all the more recent data suggests Denver will still probably be an effective team (lowest went 8-8 the next season, average was 10.4 wins, average 80% return to playoffs).

Looking at Denver's Schedule they have a fair murderer's row just like the Chiefs thanks to playing the now powerful NFC West (isn't it funny that if you suck long enough and get enough high draft picks you eventually become good, God love the NFL and so do I).

They have games at: Seattle, Jets, New England, Oakland, St. Louis, KC, SD, and Cincinatti

Home games include: Indy, KC, Arizona, SF, SD, Miami, Buffalo, Oakland

I'd like to think that they will lose at Seattle, New England, St. Louis, and Kansas City but even losing only 2 or 3 of those 4 would not surprise me. I could see them losing only potentially to Indy, KC, and SF at home but will likely be favored in all those games as well at Mile High. Maybe San Diego or Oakland will up and steal a win from them as well? Otherwise I see them with a 5-1 Division record (splitting one with KC)

Similarly looking quickly at the Chiefs we have games:

At - Denver, Miami, SF, SD, Buffalo (again), Oakland, Arizona, Steelers

Home - Titans, New England, STL, Jets, Seattle, Denver, Oakland, SD

I'm inclined to think that we split with Denver this year although which game I can't say, probably split San Diego, and hopefully sweep Oakland. That would be a 4-2 Division record. Games to lose abound here but higher percentages likely go to Seattle, STL (that D-line is nasty, they are my surprise pick in the NFC West this year), Denver, SF. However there are many more games in there that I can see us easily winning and also easily losing. Having Seattle and NE at home on big game nights may give us an edge and luckily traveling to Miami, Buffalo, and even Arizona and Steelers should be at least winnable games. I'm predicting us to have around a 9 to 10 win season.

Unfortunately for KC in my scenarios above Denver likely takes the Division at around 11 or maybe 12 wins and KC and San Diego likely vie for wild card spots in the 9 to 10 win ranges. Oddly enough both Denver and KC have super early bye weeks (after 3 games for Denver and after 5 games for KC) so the end of the season could change dramatically with any injuries and with the guys wearing down after such a brutally long stretch.

God I hate Denver.

*Disclaimer

Now you should always remember that according to some famous line that there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. So while this was fun it's definitely not gospel given the small sample looked at and the incredible variability the NFL has.

Thanks for reading! (hopefully this counts as enough text for a fan post)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.