FanPost

Next Chiefs Pick

Murray started for four years, which is one more than McCarron and two more than Manziel and Mettenberger. In fact, Murray beat Mettenberger out when the two were direct competitors at Georgiain 2010. Murray never spent a season languishing behind the unremarkable pair of Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson. Mettenberger started for only two years in the SEC and was mediocre as a fourth-year junior. In 2012, Mettenberger passed for 7.4 yards per attempt and 7.2 yards per adjusted attempt. Murray's first year as a starter produced 8.9 yards per attempt and 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt, despite being a redshirt freshman. McCarron comes closer to Murray, as he started for three years and had a higher career completion percentage. However, he doesn't have Murray's mobility. (Career rushing yards: Murray 396, McCarron -50.) And that gets to my theory as to why NFL teams should stay away until later: quarterbacks from dynasty programs are a bad bet. In a way, this is a compliment to the juggernaut that is Alabama football. How could we expect McCarron to mature when he spent three years passing from perfect pockets to elite receivers, all aided by outstanding running backs? That environment isn't anything like what he'll face in the NFL. Isn't it easier to have a high completion percentage when surrounded by superior talent? Did USC produce any quality NFL quarterbacks during the height of its dynasty? How about Florida State or Miami? The implication in all three cases is that dynasty programs can produce quarterbacks during their early periods, before they acquire overwhelming advantages (Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, Brad Johnson, Carson Palmer), but that quarterbacks from mature dynasties tend to fail (Steve Walsh, Craig Erickson, Gino Torretta, Danny Kanell, Thad Busby, ChrisWeinke, Matt Leinart, John David Booty, Mark Sanchez). Do we have reason to expect Alabama to be any different? And that brings us to Johnny Football. It takes some real squinting to see Murray as a better prospect than Manziel. Going by only the same standards as above, the Heisman winner had a significantly higher completion percentage and slightly higher yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt. Plus, NFL scouts are clearly much higher on Manziel, based on the disparity in Draft projections. So what factors would make us think that the gap between Murray and Manziel is not as big as many think? LCF includes two factors regarding a quarterback's run-pass ratio and total rushing yards. The idea is that these variables "work together to penalize both quarterbacks who scramble too often and quarterbacks who take a lot of sacks, while pocket quarterbacks who are successful when they do run (Andrew Luck, for example) get a bonus." Generally speaking, Murray uses his mobility in conventional ways to buy more time to throw, whereas Manziel runs more and bounces around in unconventional ways. Murray uses his mobility in a way that NFL coaches can understand, whereas Manziel does not. Much as we enjoyed watching Manziel in college, will his anarchic style work in a league this buttoned-up? Can we imagine NFL coaches letting him improvise? Manziel faces a risk that NFL coaching will negate his best qualities, whereas there is no such risk for Murray. Can a quarterback who exposes himself to hits as Manziel does survive on a long-term basis? Murray is the one coming off of ACL surgery, butManziel might be the bigger health risk. Take a look at the list of air raid quarterbacks who have seen action in the NFL and tell me that it inspires you with confidence that Manziel can break the trend. The system has produced two signal callers who went first in the Draft. Tim Couch was an undisputed bust, and Sam Bradford is on his way there. The offense has been around for a while and has yet to produce a quality NFL quarterback. In contrast, Aaron Murray's predecessor at Georgia, Matt Stafford, also went first in the Draft and has finished in the top three in the NFL in passing yards in each of the past three seasons.

IMO Murray could start day 1 in KC but we have Alex Smith another year so he could sit and compete with Tyler Bray who himself has a year under Andy Reids system and would give him 2 years while competing with Murray. One of these will be the successor of Alex we save tons of money and have something KC has not had in Many Many years a howme grown starting QB and not someone else hand me downs. It may not be a popular pick with KC Fans but would pay dividends

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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