From the FanPosts -Joel
This years NFL Draft has been touted as "the deepest draft in 10 years, especially at the wide receiver position." While I'm not here to argue that, I do want to take a look at how that can affect (even with reading the definitions, I still get confused between affect and effect, so my apologies if I chose poorly) the Chiefs. Wide receiver is clearly a position that we need to upgrade on this team. And frankly, I think we need help at both flanker and in the slot.
By using a post from NFL.com, I've totaled 14 teams that have wide receiver as a top three need going into the NFL Draft this year. Of the 14 teams with a wide receiver need, one team (St. Louis) has two first round picks, while another (Indianapolis) is missing a first round pick.
After using many advanced metrics such as addition, those 14 teams would have a total of 36 opportunities, barring any trades, to draft a receiver before our second pick (Round 3, pick 87); seven of those teams were picking after KC (excluding Indianapolis in the first round).
For reference I've used this site, as well as this site to get more than one opinion on how many receivers were ranked within the top 90. CBS has 14 wide receivers ranked in the top 90 while DraftTek has a total of 15 (including slot receivers, which they rank on a separate page). I don't need to tell you that having one position take up about 16.67 percent in the first 90 picks is substantial. However, at that rate, each of the teams with wide receiver needs would take a receiver (the teams after KC in either rounds one or two) within the first three rounds.
Obviously, there will be scenarios where wide receiver is seen as Best-Player-Available and players will be taken by teams who weren't listed as having wide receiver as a need and other scenarios where another position (CB, DL, OL, QB, etc) is a better choice.With that said, is taking a wide receiver in the first round a better choice than the third round?
Is it likely almost half the league drafts a wide receiver within the first 86 picks? Having a draft saturated with so much wide receiver talent, will it push some teams to pass on wide receivers to take other positions that don't have the same sort of depth in the draft?
My personal thoughts are to take a defensive back early (my preference being Virginia Tech CB Kyle Fuller) and see what's available at wide receiver in the third. I think there's a chance that a guy projected in the second or early third is still there in the bottom part of the third. Obviously, by waiting you're taking a chance of missing out on a top end receiver, but just going by the numbers, I like my chances.